Shirreffs' latest gem

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The point about broodmare value is that as long as grade 1s are so important for broodmare value, you're never going to get really easy grade 1s.

You have to remember that one of the reasons these races out west have been so easy is because Z is scaring the competition away. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more shippers from the east coast coming out west to win a grade I. Top mares from the east coast don't want to fly out west to face Z. If Z wasn't in these races, you would have more of these top mares coming out west for a grade I. It's not Z's fault that she's scaring the competition away. That is the point you are missing.

Did they fill up those collectible Zenyatta glasses with free kool-aid?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Did they fill up those collectible Zenyatta glasses with free kool-aid?

What I'm saying isn't even debatable. I'm not saying anything controversial. You must not be in the horse business. The main goal of anyone that owns a mare is to win a grade I. That's how you increase your mare's value dramatically. Everyone wants their mare to win a grade I. The value of your mare goes up 5x overnight.

Anyone with a good mare is looking to win a grade I. If you're back east and you're looking to get a grade I win, you will strongly consider shipping out west. It's been done a lot over the years. It's even done with colts to increase their value. It's probably not done quite as much now with the synthetics but it's still done.

Anyway, if a trainer is deciding whether or not to send his mare out west to try to win a grade I, you don't think Zenyatta's presence in the race will have a huge impact on the guy's decision. If you don't, then you are the one drinking the cool-aid.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What I'm saying isn't even debatable.

Of course it is, because you're making no logical points. It's like making fun of Sarah Palin. At some point, you're just being mean for picking on a weaker kid.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not saying anything controversial.

Yeah you are, cuz people are arguing with you. Did you not notice that part?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You must not be in the horse business. The main goal of anyone that owns a mare is to win a grade I. That's how you increase your mare's value dramatically. Everyone wants their mare to win a grade I. The value of your mare goes up 5x overnight.

Her value has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion:

1) They won't sell her. I bet they won't sell her offspring unless it's sending a colt to stud, and exactly how will anything she does in 2010 affect that? I don't think getting HOY would impact progeny value at this point. She's transcended it. She and Rachel are Hall of Fame bound and both sets of owners are probably gonna apply for the beatification process rather than sell their respective queens. End of.

2) What does being in the business or not being in the business have to do with logic? Jess Jackson's "in the horse business" and I have yet to understand very much of what he says or does. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a rocket scientist who moonlights "in the horse business" since I know how particular you are) to figure out that a mare is better off with a G1 than a G2 win. The only reason Zenyatta isn't in a bunch of walkovers is those owners like getting G1 placings. (Well not the only reason. She's teasing them with the close finishes to mediocre horses so some come back for more hoping she'll slip up one day, and if she doesn't, here ya go. Another G1 placing).

3) She's got a million G1s and the Breeders Cup Classic to boot. There's zero that racing her in the Vanity, the Clement Hirsch, the Zenyatta Stakes this year will do to her value. Another Classic win would matter for her legend. Possibly her value, but again, they're not gonna sell her majesty.

4) Why are you referencing what other people aspire to with their mares? That has nothing to do with the Mosses' decisions. They know they have a superhorse that has as many G1s as a 14yo boy has zits. Racking up more isn't the point so much as that's the level she belongs at. She's so clearly dominant at filly or mare G1s at CA that there's no reason not to go in them if only to pick up the bigger purses with ease.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Anyone with a good mare is looking to win a grade I. If you're back east and you're looking to get a grade I win, you will strongly consider shipping out west. It's been done a lot over the years. It's even done with colts to increase their value. It's probably not done quite as much now with the synthetics but it's still done.

Way to deflect the argument again. Why a mare owner runs their horse in a G1 is obvious. Why they'd go west is not. They have a G1 over a dirt surface at their home track and they go to CA why? Zenyatta's supposedly better on dirt, and synthetics seems to take the edge off dirt horses with speed. Why not go to a track that benefits both Zenyatta and her competition? Why does either have to compete with one hoof tied behind their back?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Anyway, if a trainer is deciding whether or not to send his mare out west to try to win a grade I, you don't think Zenyatta's presence in the race will have a huge impact on the guy's decision. If you don't, then you are the one drinking the cool-aid.

I seriously doubt it heavily affected the decisions of many of the dirt horses in the East or "east" since that apparently applies to Churchill and Oaklawn nowadays. The bigger factor--the surface. They learned their lesson. Horses that do go west are either taking a shot in the dark or they've shown they like synthetics too. The big question for the ones that don't ship is why bother?

There's no competition staying in California unless she tries open company. I get why they're doing it, but it's frustrating. The idea that not coming to her makes the rest of the horses outside California a bunch of chickens is nuts. No, a G1 isn't the be all end all when it's on synthetics and requires a cross-country flight.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Of course it is, because you're making no logical points. It's like making fun of Sarah Palin. At some point, you're just being mean for picking on a weaker kid.



Yeah you are, cuz people are arguing with you. Did you not notice that part?



Her value has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion:

1) They won't sell her. I bet they won't sell her offspring unless it's sending a colt to stud, and exactly how will anything she does in 2010 affect that? I don't think getting HOY would impact progeny value at this point. She's transcended it. She and Rachel are Hall of Fame bound and both sets of owners are probably gonna apply for the beatification process rather than sell their respective queens. End of.

2) What does being in the business or not being in the business have to do with logic? Jess Jackson's "in the horse business" and I have yet to understand very much of what he says or does. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a rocket scientist who moonlights "in the horse business" since I know how particular you are) to figure out that a mare is better off with a G1 than a G2 win. The only reason Zenyatta isn't in a bunch of walkovers is those owners like getting G1 placings. (Well not the only reason. She's teasing them with the close finishes to mediocre horses so some come back for more hoping she'll slip up one day, and if she doesn't, here ya go. Another G1 placing).

3) She's got a million G1s and the Breeders Cup Classic to boot. There's zero that racing her in the Vanity, the Clement Hirsch, the Zenyatta Stakes this year will do to her value. Another Classic win would matter for her legend. Possibly her value, but again, they're not gonna sell her majesty.

4) Why are you referencing what other people aspire to with their mares? That has nothing to do with the Mosses' decisions. They know they have a superhorse that has as many G1s as a 14yo boy has zits. Racking up more isn't the point so much as that's the level she belongs at. She's so clearly dominant at filly or mare G1s at CA that there's no reason not to go in them if only to pick up the bigger purses with ease.



Way to deflect the argument again. Why a mare owner runs their horse in a G1 is obvious. Why they'd go west is not. They have a G1 over a dirt surface at their home track and they go to CA why? Zenyatta's supposedly better on dirt, and synthetics seems to take the edge off dirt horses with speed. Why not go to a track that benefits both Zenyatta and her competition? Why does either have to compete with one hoof tied behind their back?



I seriously doubt it heavily affected the decisions of many of the dirt horses in the East or "east" since that apparently applies to Churchill and Oaklawn nowadays. The bigger factor--the surface. They learned their lesson. Horses that do go west are either taking a shot in the dark or they've shown they like synthetics too. The big question for the ones that don't ship is why bother?

There's no competition staying in California unless she tries open company. I get why they're doing it, but it's frustrating. The idea that not coming to her makes the rest of the horses outside California a bunch of chickens is nuts. No, a G1 isn't the be all end all when it's on synthetics and requires a cross-country flight.

Your quote that I was responding to that I said wasn't debatable, was your argument to my quote that Z's presence in the filly races out west scares off some potential shippers from coming. That was what I said is not debatable. There is no doubt that if Zenyatta's connections had decided they weren't going to run in the Hirsch, that more horses would have shipped in for the race.

With regard to value and broodmares, I wasn't talking about Zenyatta's value. I was talking about the value of a grade I to other mares out there and why people are often times willing to ship if they think it's their best chance to get a grade I under their belt.