Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[tiggerv]

MP got away with 22.8 45.6

The 2yo Filly in the 4th went 21.8 45.9

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

MP got away with 22.8 45.6

The 2yo Filly in the 4th went 21.8 45.9

i hear ya. i bet bribon....he never had a chance with that set up.

[the_fat_man]

Bribon had the visually impressive run but that's really not the whole story. Coa basically BLEW the race for EVERYONE except the winner. By not running early, he allows the winner to get away with a slow early split and, as a result, dust the field. By not running early he also takes a, potentially, perfect trip away from Mambo Meister, by forcing that one to run a lot closer to the pace early than he really wants; and eliminates any closer from winning the race. Ask yourselves this: if BRIBON is rushed early to be where MM was, where does he finish in the race? And does he make that impressive move?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Coa basically BLEW the race for EVERYONE except the winner. By not running early,

OR he assured his mount of 2nd place by not engaging in a speed duel

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by robfla

OR he assured his mount of 2nd place by not engaging in a speed duel

Come on, after all the rides where these jocks BLOW 2nd by idiotic moves on the 2nd best horse? These jocks don't ride for 2nd and Coa didn't here either. He's too stupid and cocky.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Come on, after all the rides where these jocks BLOW 2nd by idiotic moves on the 2nd best horse? These jocks don't ride for 2nd and Coa didn't here either. He's too stupid and cocky.

Doesn't this contradict what you said in the other thread?

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The most difficult trip for a jock is one in which (s)he's chasing a loose leader -- whether on a fast or slow pace. The idea is to realize when/if you can get the leader and still win the race. If you can't get to him, then you really should be riding for 2nd.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by robfla

Doesn't this contradict what you said in the other thread?

No

An example of that situation would be Maragh's ride on Flat Bold in the James Marvin.

In one extreme, you can duel in a fast pace against a better/faster horse and hope to take him down but definitely take yourself down --- Flat Bold

In the other, you can let a fast horse get loose in slow fractions and forget about ever getting him. Now, I know that the connections didn't bring Big Drama up to Saratoga to have him SIT behind fractions slower than some 2 year old maidens ran earlier. They're happy with 2nd but they're wondering what happens if Coa was just a LITTLE BIT ahead of Mambo Meister early.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Bribon had the visually impressive run but that's really not the whole story. Coa basically BLEW the race for EVERYONE except the winner. By not running early, he allows the winner to get away with a slow early split and, as a result, dust the field. By not running early he also takes a, potentially, perfect trip away from Mambo Meister, by forcing that one to run a lot closer to the pace early than he really wants; and eliminates any closer from winning the race. Ask yourselves this: if BRIBON is rushed early to be where MM was, where does he finish in the race? And does he make that impressive move?

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

I think you and everybody else thought that BD would be OUTRUN by, or choose not to run with, M. This typically involves a FAST pace by a FAST horse. This wasn't the case here and Coa miscalculated and just happened to ass out. What you described above is more representative of what happened 2 races back in Florida, where BD sat behind dueling leaders in a FAST early split.

Here are the splits for the sprint races that day:

R2 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Two Year Old (S) Dirt 5F Fast 21.84
R4 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Two Year Old Fillies Dirt 6.5F Fast 21.83
R8 Honorable Miss G2 Three Year Old/ Up F/M Dirt 6F Fast 22.43
R9 Vanderbilt H. Grade 1 Three Year Old Upward Dirt 6F Fast 22.80

The fastest sprinter in the country just happened to get away with the slowest quarter of the day. And Coa rated off it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think you and everybody else thought that BD would be OUTRUN by, or choose not to run with, M. This typically involves a FAST pace by a FAST horse. This wasn't the case here and Coa miscalculated and just happened to ass out. What you described above is more representative of what happened 2 races back in Florida, where BD sat behind dueling leaders in a FAST early split.

False. That's not what I said. I said the pace would be slow because Coa would decide not to duel with MP. That's what happened.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think there will be much early gas, and that's why I think Majesticperfection cruises. The only two horses with real six-furlong speed are him and Big Drama, and I think Coa knows if he knocks heads with Bridgmohan early, he'll be toast. His only chance is to sit a length off and try to outfinish him. I don't think it'll happen.

[the_fat_man]

I stand corrected. You correctly predicted that the fastest horse in the country would SLOW DOWN the pace. Hope the $15 exacta was all you.

[tiggerv]

I obviously read the pace wrong, however, watch the head on and see the start Big Drama gets. It isn't horrible...but he gets pinched between horses and then veers towards the rail. It potentially cost him an early length to MP and any chance of going to the front. Once MP got in front early, Coa had no other choice but to lay off. That may have been the plan all along but they were obviously playing for 2nd if it was.

[Athletics005]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

Agreed. Classic game theory. Once Majesticperfection was commited to the lead, Big Drama could either push him for it (which might give BD a slightly better chance of winning the race, but also much larger chance of one/both faltering badly in the stretch) or basically concede the race and sit second off easy fractions (making it very likely he will finish 2nd, knowing no closers will come, and hope his mount can somehow out finish Majesticperfection).

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

MP got away with 22.8 45.6

The 2yo Filly in the 4th went 21.8 45.9

Faulty comparison. Two different distances that always favors the former for faster clockings.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Faulty comparison. Two different distances that always favors the former for faster clockings.

Forgive me for neglecting the 40 feet runup difference. 3/10th second for FR1?

21.8/45.9 vs 22.5/45.45 better?