Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Bribon had the visually impressive run but that's really not the whole story. Coa basically BLEW the race for EVERYONE except the winner. By not running early, he allows the winner to get away with a slow early split and, as a result, dust the field. By not running early he also takes a, potentially, perfect trip away from Mambo Meister, by forcing that one to run a lot closer to the pace early than he really wants; and eliminates any closer from winning the race. Ask yourselves this: if BRIBON is rushed early to be where MM was, where does he finish in the race? And does he make that impressive move?

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

I think you and everybody else thought that BD would be OUTRUN by, or choose not to run with, M. This typically involves a FAST pace by a FAST horse. This wasn't the case here and Coa miscalculated and just happened to ass out. What you described above is more representative of what happened 2 races back in Florida, where BD sat behind dueling leaders in a FAST early split.

Here are the splits for the sprint races that day:

R2 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Two Year Old (S) Dirt 5F Fast 21.84
R4 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Two Year Old Fillies Dirt 6.5F Fast 21.83
R8 Honorable Miss G2 Three Year Old/ Up F/M Dirt 6F Fast 22.43
R9 Vanderbilt H. Grade 1 Three Year Old Upward Dirt 6F Fast 22.80

The fastest sprinter in the country just happened to get away with the slowest quarter of the day. And Coa rated off it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think you and everybody else thought that BD would be OUTRUN by, or choose not to run with, M. This typically involves a FAST pace by a FAST horse. This wasn't the case here and Coa miscalculated and just happened to ass out. What you described above is more representative of what happened 2 races back in Florida, where BD sat behind dueling leaders in a FAST early split.

False. That's not what I said. I said the pace would be slow because Coa would decide not to duel with MP. That's what happened.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think there will be much early gas, and that's why I think Majesticperfection cruises. The only two horses with real six-furlong speed are him and Big Drama, and I think Coa knows if he knocks heads with Bridgmohan early, he'll be toast. His only chance is to sit a length off and try to outfinish him. I don't think it'll happen.

[the_fat_man]

I stand corrected. You correctly predicted that the fastest horse in the country would SLOW DOWN the pace. Hope the $15 exacta was all you.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I stand corrected. You correctly predicted that the fastest horse in the country would SLOW DOWN the pace. Hope the $15 exacta was all you.

poor baby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

poor baby.

Enjoy, Joey.

Hope it takes away the sting of getting it stuck you know where with your Quality Road.

Then again, you're the one with the ax to grind.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Enjoy, Joey.

Hope it takes away the sting of getting it stuck you know where with your Quality Road.

Then again, you're the one with the ax to grind.

You just can't stand it when anybody else is right about pace except you.

If you've ever read what I've said about QR, I'm actually not a big fan, so the joke's on you.

[tiggerv]

I obviously read the pace wrong, however, watch the head on and see the start Big Drama gets. It isn't horrible...but he gets pinched between horses and then veers towards the rail. It potentially cost him an early length to MP and any chance of going to the front. Once MP got in front early, Coa had no other choice but to lay off. That may have been the plan all along but they were obviously playing for 2nd if it was.

[Athletics005]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I told you it would happen. His job isn't to set the race up for Mambo Meister, it's to give his mount the best chance to win. His only chance to win was not to engage Majesticperfection, and instead to rate a length off him and try to outfinish him. It didn't work because Big Drama is an inferior horse, but he and the connections got a much bigger check than if he had dueled with MP.

Agreed. Classic game theory. Once Majesticperfection was commited to the lead, Big Drama could either push him for it (which might give BD a slightly better chance of winning the race, but also much larger chance of one/both faltering badly in the stretch) or basically concede the race and sit second off easy fractions (making it very likely he will finish 2nd, knowing no closers will come, and hope his mount can somehow out finish Majesticperfection).