Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

When it comes to slow pace, lets say several horses in a race are capable of a 100, but one only a 90. The pace is b

Here's a hypothetical:

YOU and a bunch of other novices go a few laps around a velodrome against a world class track cyclist. You all do the initial 1.5 laps at a VERY SLOW pace and then the superior rider takes off and WIPES all of you out. In other words, NONE of you are able to gain on him the last 1/2 lap. This is because even though you went ridiculously SLOW for 3/4 of the race, he's just too fast for you (the field) the last 1/4 and you just can't keep up. This makes sense.

Now, substitute the field from above with one of world class track cyclists that are, say, very slightly below in terms of ability, to the cyclist mentioned above. The dynamics remain the same: 1 1/2 laps at a ridiculously SLOW pace and then an all out dash to the wire. What are the chances that this cyclist WIPES OUT the ENTIRE field? Slim to none?

Then explain to me what saying that the Curlin had a slow pace actually has to do with the race itself.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Then explain to me what saying that the Curlin had a slow pace actually has to do with the race itself.

I thought I did that, and I don't care about cycling.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I thought I did that, and I don't care about cycling.

I see. You only want to be on record that SLOW PACES don't impact wide trips.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I see. You only want to be on record that SLOW PACES don't impact wide trips.

I honestly didn't get the point of your post. I think you basically said the same thing but with a cycling analogy. What was the point? I actually did cover exactly what you were talking about, but you didn't seem to get it. The post was about making figures and how some situations can be handled. I don't think anyone makes figures for cycling.

With the slow paces, you can do as I mentioned and boost the final figure to the ability of the winner, but it has problems. You probably need to penalize the also rans more than the standard amount for beaten lengths.

But, what do you do when the horses are lightly raced or going a new distance and you don't know their abilities? Guys like you want to pretend figures are bad and the people making them are clueless. I'm showing some of the many issues that are involved. Whenever some big race figure is criticized, it usually involves one of the scenarios I mentioned, and you can add in changing track speeds. Those that criticize like to pretend all figure making should be cut and dry.

As for those like yourself that abhor figures, I have no idea why you even get involved in these discussions. You should be happy so many seem to like figures and take advantage at the windows.

[the_fat_man]

You know I respect you as a figure maker. Sooner or later, you'll stop being defensive and try to address some of the issues I raise.

Specifically, in this case:

1) you're on record that POLY races are tightly paced typically at the end because of the slow paces -- caused by jocks that intentionally slow them down; this makes sense

2) you're also on record that wide trips aren't as relevant in SLOW PACED races; this also makes sense


I'm simply asking, given the above, with full awareness that dirt and poly don't play the same, WHY the rest of the field quit as bad as it did in the Curlin, and HOW your figures 'explain' this. Merely telling me that the PACE is slow allows me to draw the conclusion that these horses QUIT because they BID into a 25.27 SPLIT. But a slow pace isn't supposed to do that in reasonably evenly matched fields. So maybe, just maybe, it was a result of WHEN and HOW MANY moves were made rather than how fast or slow the pace was. Just maybe. Cause, the Wood and the Curlin are both WIPEOUTS but they're not really the same 'type' of race in terms of dynamics.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know I respect you as a figure maker. Sooner or later, you'll stop being defensive and try to address some of the issues I raise.

Specifically, in this case:

1) you're on record that POLY races are tightly paced typically at the end because of the slow paces -- caused by jocks that intentionally slow them down; this makes sense

2) you're also on record that wide trips aren't as relevant in SLOW PACED races; this also makes sense


I'm simply asking, given the above, with full awareness that dirt and poly don't play the same, WHY the rest of the field quit as bad as it did in the Curlin, and HOW your figures 'explain' this. Merely telling me that the PACE is slow allows me to draw the conclusion that these horses QUIT because they BID into a 25.27 SPLIT. But a slow pace isn't supposed to do that in reasonably evenly matched fields. So maybe, just maybe, it was a result of WHEN and HOW MANY moves were made rather than how fast or slow the pace was. Just maybe. Cause, the Wood and the Curlin are both WIPEOUTS but they're not really the same 'type' of race in terms of dynamics.

Unless time is taken at points of call about every 20 yards, figures will never explain everything. I'm sure you know that. However, without figures, the moves alone without context don't tell much either.