8/1 (MTH): Haskell (G1), Oceanport & Matchmaker (G3's)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

So he's off to a cold start at Del Mar. What is more important, the fact that he's off to a slow start at Del Mar or the fact that he's won 105 races this year and is the 5th leading rider in the country in terms of money won?

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.

Baffert can get anyone he wants to ride for him. He uses Garcia because Garcia has become one of the best riders in the country.

Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.




Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

What is the ROI of any of the top 10 jocks? I bet most of them are right around $1.68. By sheer luck, some will be slighlty higher and some will be slightly lower. I would judge a jock by watching him ride, rather than looking at his ROI.

If Garcia wins on some 25-1 shot next week, he will be winning above the takeout. All it takes is one longshot.

I love Garcia. I think he is extremely talented. He looks great on a horse and he has good instincts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

Rosario $1.86 - The single worst year of his entire career - not because he's riding any worse but because his name recognition hurts him now - where it helped him when he was considered a nobuddy a few years ago.

Dominguez - $1.61 - he's winning 25% for the year and was once king in the ROI stat for several years about 12 years ago. He hasn't tailed off badly as a rider over the last two years - another case of name recognition hurting him.

Velazquez - $1.64 - He's the Martin Garcia of the East in terms of how he rides now.

The stats are just stats - you have to actually watch how these guys ride to appreciate how unspectacular Garcia is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

I admit that is a high number but there are plenty of jocks out there that have a fairly high percentage of their wins from one barn. For a lot of years I bet that at least 30-35% of Johnny V's wins were for Pletcher.

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

[philcski]

Most surprising result of the day at Monmouth- a Pletcher trainee with a TG figure 2 points faster than any other pays $17.60 in an 8 horse field. WHAT?!?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

I was mixed up. As DrugS said, I had the 42% figure in my head from the other stat. Anyway, even 28% is a great number. I can't remember Garcia blowing any for Baffert this year. I think he's ridden great for him.