15 years....

Sightseek · #1 07-31-2010, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Steve Asmussen A. P. Indy debuter Astrology goes in todays 6th race.

This one has a few things going for it on the bottom of the pedigree - it's a half sibling to a horse who won it's debut going 4.5 furlongs at KEE by 7 lengths - the mother's win came at 5.5fs, and several of the workouts identically match Wine Police and it would appear as those two have worked in company more than once.

About 12 jumps or so in, so many of these young A. P. Indy horses come right off of the bit in sprints. A lot of riders like to hustle away and settle by that point in these races at Saratoga.

I remember a NY Bred A. P. Indy of Husion's that was bet to 1/2 favoritism in his debut at Saratoga. The horse broke fine and seemed to be in a great spot - and all of a sudden the horse comes off of the steel and Jerry Bailey is pushing and shoving like hell - even going to the whip repeatedly and in all out drive about 1.5 furlongs into a 6 furlong sprint. All of the other riders are chilly and as you're watching this you're like "this favorite is going to stop and get beat 30 if he isn't eased entirely" .. but despite all of that - the horse keeps grinding to finish 2nd despite being in an all-out drive for almost every step of the race after breaking well and having a great early spot.

The horse who won the race was a Kat DaMassi horse who lost his next 20+ races, many at the 5K N2L claiming level at Philly Park. That horse never won again. The A. P. Indy debuter that finished 2nd made almost 400K in his career. The chart comment for him simply said "trouble with footing" He ran one more time at 6fs later in that meet and finished off the board as the favorite.

So are you saying history can be made today or we should bet against it?

The Indomitable DrugS · #2 07-31-2010, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So are you saying history can be made today or we should bet against it?

I wouldn't bet on it ... even if it was live on the board like so many others have been ..that's for sure.

There are also two very pricey Bernardini debuters in there - A. P. Indy's finest son perhaps - and he was off the board as a 3yo going 6f at GP in his debut before freaking when the distances increased.

It will happen eventually - but not with my money.

In terms of handicapping that race ... you have to let the board guide you. As it stands until the board starts to talk...

The 10 is best. The 4 is second best.

The 1 and 8 can't possibly win. They are debuters who certainly didn't do anything impressive undertack at the sales.

The 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 all are very nicely bred horses with good connections - atleast one of them will probably end up being a very serious horse - but you want to bet against 5 of the 6 unless they are rabidly live on the board... the Indian Charlie debuter would be usable if he's just live instead of rabidly live.

hockey2315 · #3 07-31-2010, 10:03 AM

The Indian Charlie is probably the best pedigree wise for this, but I don't like Harty's stats. I'm hoping the 4 gets ignored. I'll probably use the 8 too by process of elimination, but I didn't see his undertack work.

The Indomitable DrugS · #4 07-31-2010, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'll probably use the 8 too by process of elimination, but I didn't see his undertack work.

He needed 34 2/4ths for 3fs at OBS April while blinkered and with a shadow roll in an all-out drive over the single fastest track in history of horse racing. That Linda Rice rat who barely won her debut in the 5.5f turf race yesterday went a bullet 20.40 for a quarter to give you an idea how fast it was.

The 8 was also not a very successful pinhook. Sold for 10K as a weanling in '08 and 18K as a 2yo in '10.

freddymo · #5 07-31-2010, 10:30 AM

What DrugS does well he does very well

hockey2315 · #6 07-31-2010, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The Indian Charlie is probably the best pedigree wise for this, but I don't like Harty's stats. I'm hoping the 4 gets ignored. I'll probably use the 8 too by process of elimination, but I didn't see his undertack work.

I'd say that qualifies as getting ignored.

Sightseek · #7 07-31-2010, 10:06 AM

I thought this race was challenging because a few could be decent horses, but down the road. I had 10 keyed as the most likely winner and it's interesting you say the 8 can't possibly win because I was looking at him for underneath because I thought the distance would actually help him, whereas several of the horses that I'll be watching seem like they would need a bit more ground and/or are coming from connections that are not the best first out.

Betsy · #8 07-31-2010, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't bet on it ... even if it was live on the board like so many others have been ..that's for sure.

There are also two very pricey Bernardini debuters in there - A. P. Indy's finest son perhaps - and he was off the board as a 3yo going 6f at GP in his debut before freaking when the distances increased.

It will happen eventually - but not with my money.

In terms of handicapping that race ... you have to let the board guide you. As it stands until the board starts to talk...

The 10 is best. The 4 is second best.

The 1 and 8 can't possibly win. They are debuters who certainly didn't do anything impressive undertack at the sales.

The 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 all are very nicely bred horses with good connections - atleast one of them will probably end up being a very serious horse - but you want to bet against 5 of the 6 unless they are rabidly live on the board... the Indian Charlie debuter would be usable if he's just live instead of rabidly live.

Who was that AP Indy you referred to who ended up winning $400,000?

Bernardini just had a very impressive winner at Newmarket - who also needed her first start. I'm rooting for the Bernardinis, but although they are working well, I expect them to need a start. The only one who hasn't thus far is AZ Warrior. I'm still waiting for Stay Thirsty to work again.........

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 07-31-2010, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

Who was that AP Indy you referred to who ended up winning $400,000?

I forget the name - Barry Schwartz owned it.

I just did some browsing through a ton of old MTH result charts here to look for A.P. Indy debuters who've won at MTH over the years and I was able to find 3 who won at 6fs or less.

* INDY WIND

Two of the three improved markedly in career start #2 .. both on the stretch-out - and the one who's form I don't have won his debut at odds of 1/5 with a very weak figure and faded as a big longshot in the Champagne Stakes next out.

It's just a matter of time before a horse who is too good for its competition like those 3 at MTH eventually gets it done at Saratoga going 6f or less.

Betsy · #10 07-31-2010, 10:49 AM

Thanks, Indomitable!

I loved Indian Vale...............

Friend's Lake was a NY-bred, but I don't know if he was owned by Schwartz.

I agree, one of these days it will happen - but I don't think it's a big deal or a suprise anyway. AP Indy horses don't win first out that much regardless of track.

The Indomitable DrugS · #11 07-31-2010, 12:01 PM

It was Seeking The Glory I believe.

Friends Lake was 6th in his debut at Saratoga in a 6f NY Bred race.

The Indomitable DrugS · #12 07-31-2010, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

but I don't think it's a big deal or a suprise anyway. AP Indy horses don't win first out that much regardless of track.

It is a big deal because of the volume of money they burn. They're almost always very well backed.

Betsy · #13 07-31-2010, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It is a big deal because of the volume of money they burn. They're almost always very well backed.

No one loves Indy more than me, but maybe they shouldn't be backed first time out...........oh, and thanks for the info. I remember Seeking the Glory; he wasn't much - can't believe he won that much $$$

philcski · #14 07-31-2010, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't bet on it ... even if it was live on the board like so many others have been ..that's for sure.

There are also two very pricey Bernardini debuters in there - A. P. Indy's finest son perhaps - and he was off the board as a 3yo going 6f at GP in his debut before freaking when the distances increased.

It will happen eventually - but not with my money.

In terms of handicapping that race ... you have to let the board guide you. As it stands until the board starts to talk...

The 10 is best. The 4 is second best.

The 1 and 8 can't possibly win. They are debuters who certainly didn't do anything impressive undertack at the sales.

The 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 9 all are very nicely bred horses with good connections - atleast one of them will probably end up being a very serious horse - but you want to bet against 5 of the 6 unless they are rabidly live on the board... the Indian Charlie debuter would be usable if he's just live instead of rabidly live.

I hope Vol Jack took a look at this post before he left for the Keeneland contest today. There were lots of prices to be had today... but $45 winners are ALWAYS useful in said format.

Great job, Doug.