7/24 (MTH): Lady's Secret S. feat. Rachel Alexandra

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not buying it either ... look at what that figure (RA's supposed 110) would do to the 8th race.

I think it's a pretty cut and dry 102 that RA ran today imo.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not buying it either ... look at what that figure (RA's supposed 110) would do to the 8th race.

I think it's a pretty cut and dry 102 that RA ran today imo.

79. . . New tops for at least 1-2-3 in that race and a new top for Ask The Moon.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

79. . . New tops for at least 1-2-3 in that race and a new top for Ask The Moon.

Yep. Using a 110 for RA's race and a 79 for the 8th race .. here's what the 8th race looks like

13 point new career top for winner Cause I Can

5 point new career top for 2nd place finisher

6 point new top for 3rd place

9 point new top for 4th place

2nd fastest figure in 25 career starts for 5th place

If that race gets a 71 instead of a 79 ... everything falls pretty neatly in line and the numbers look very logical.

Besides the 8th race and RA's race .. you had only one other dirt route - which was race 10.

In that race ...

* The winner got a 16 point career top (1st start of the claim for Rick Dutrow so a big jump up isn't that shocking)

* 2nd place 1 point off of career top, but 6 points better than last time out

* 3rd place 8 points off of career top, but 4 points better than last time out


Shave 8 points from the routes and that means the 1st Dutrow's career top would be just 8 points.. and that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers who were both dusted by a 19/1 shot .. ran just slightly worse than last out.

To me, the figure has to be in the 102-to-104 range. I went with a 102 but there's no way it's any faster than a 105.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yep. Using a 110 for RA's race and a 79 for the 8th race .. here's what the 8th race looks like

13 point new career top for winner Cause I Can

5 point new career top for 2nd place finisher

6 point new top for 3rd place

9 point new top for 4th place

2nd fastest figure in 25 career starts for 5th place

If that race gets a 71 instead of a 79 ... everything falls pretty neatly in line and the numbers look very logical.

Besides the 8th race and RA's race .. you had only one other dirt route - which was race 10.

In that race ...

* The winner got a 16 point career top (1st start of the claim for Rick Dutrow so a big jump up isn't that shocking)

* 2nd place 1 point off of career top, but 6 points better than last time out

* 3rd place 8 points off of career top, but 4 points better than last time out


Shave 8 points from the routes and that means the 1st Dutrow's career top would be just 8 points.. and that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers who were both dusted by a 19/1 shot .. ran just slightly worse than last out.

To me, the figure has to be in the 102-to-104 range. I went with a 102 but there's no way it's any faster than a 105.

Agree with your logic. Didn't do the card, how do the sprints line up? 102-103 sounds right eyeballing it, 110 seems much too high.