7/10 (BEL): Man o' War S. (G1)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

First off Im not sure he is going to get beat, I think he is the most likely winner and he is not one of these favorites I am rushing to try to beat in this spot. I was arguing the point about the excuses, he is turning into one of these horses who always needs an excuse, like hes making his own trouble at this point.

If I do bet on Saturday I could see a few horses running bang up races and beating him. Strike a Deals comeback was huge, he had every right to bounce a bit last time, now he comes back in this spot where there is only 1 other horse with any type of speed, and that pig just ran for a tag 2 back at Deleware, if JV is smart he sits second and cuts him loose at the top of the stretch, maybe he is good enough? Expansion came around a lot at the end of the last year and was hyped a few times in Stakes races earlier this year, he bombed in them, but his last was strong he showed that big kick. If he runs back to his last and Gio Ponti is not the same horse then Expansion can win.

Back to Gio Ponti and my response to Brian, what was his excuse in the Turf Classic? The distance? I still dont think Interpatation should be running him down late.....

A lot of if's. Strike A Deal's comeback was okay, but he was lone speed and Goldberg was winning EVERYTHING then. He has come back to earth since then. That said, he could be second, but Gio Ponti at even 90% seems pretty tough.

The Turf Classic was run in an absolute bog. With the course like that, they probably ran 1 3/4's. He had some traffic last time. He seems like a horse that likes to make a sweeping move like he did in his wins last year.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

A lot of if's. Strike A Deal's comeback was okay, but he was lone speed and Goldberg was winning EVERYTHING then. He has come back to earth since then. That said, he could be second, but Gio Ponti at even 90% seems pretty tough.

The Turf Classic was run in an absolute bog. With the course like that, they probably ran 1 3/4's. He had some traffic last time. He seems like a horse that likes to make a sweeping move like he did in his wins last year.

I agree, I wouldn't bet Strike a Deal with stolen money. That Pimlico win was incredibly circumstantial and included basically everything you said.

I bet Expansion in the Manhattan and Castellano clearly did what Chad Brown asked, which was to keep him out of trouble. Of course, in doing so he probably compromised his chances to win as he was parked wide the entire way. Can he beat Gio Ponti in here? It's plausible with a very sweet trip but GP at 80% of the horse he was in this race last year wins for fun.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I agree, I wouldn't bet Strike a Deal with stolen money. That Pimlico win was incredibly circumstantial and included basically everything you said.

I bet Expansion in the Manhattan and Castellano clearly did what Chad Brown asked, which was to keep him out of trouble. Of course, in doing so he probably compromised his chances to win as he was parked wide the entire way. Can he beat Gio Ponti in here? It's plausible with a very sweet trip but GP at 80% of the horse he was in this race last year wins for fun.

NT

I never said I was betting anyone at all.