7/4: Monmouth (P5); Belmont (P4); Queen's Plate; Firecracker

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here?

The problem with this race is that the best horses(s) probably won't get the best trip/setup. I can't go with your choice. I think DRD ran a very fine race last out: very wide with Husbands up, and the only horse (essentially) to gain in relation to the winner the last 2 calls. The problem I have with him is that this was an off-the-turfer; but I certainly think he can win with the right setup -- which he'll probably get.

I don't want Mobilizer because his last race was terrible -- though he certainly can win. It was impressive in the sense that he, also, was the only horse to gain against a wire to wire winner but he did so with a perfect inside drafting trip, cutting the corner on the 2nd turn to gain even a bigger advantage. And this, after Big Red Mike had been bid at earlier.

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck