7/4: Monmouth (P5); Belmont (P4); Queen's Plate; Firecracker

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Interesting pick. Two sprints and a hanging 2nd (though a strong effort given the setup) in a 9F off-the-turfer. And, the HERDER gets the mount, with Husbands sticking with Hotep (the other Frostad runner). You do realize that the turf poly distinction at WO is almost as pronounced as the conventional turf dirt distinction, right? Good luck.

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here? I just hate taking a short number given the field size. 'Dancer' is impossible to pass up at the price given the incredible pedigree and progressive line. He's as well meant a horse as Sam-Son has produced, with the dam and grand-dam having won this and so much more. Should save ground and relish the trip, and I'll take the view that Castellano is a plus. Looking forward to this edition of the Plate...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here? I just hate taking a short number given the field size. 'Dancer' is impossible to pass up at the price given the incredible pedigree and progressive line. He's as well meant a horse as Sam-Son has produced, with the dam and grand-dam having won this and so much more. Should save ground and relish the trip, and I'll take the view that Castellano is a plus. Looking forward to this edition of the Plate...

For what it is (or isn't) worth, Frostad said in the TDN that he is probably the more talented of the 3.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Fat.. G/L too. What direction you headed in here?

The problem with this race is that the best horses(s) probably won't get the best trip/setup. I can't go with your choice. I think DRD ran a very fine race last out: very wide with Husbands up, and the only horse (essentially) to gain in relation to the winner the last 2 calls. The problem I have with him is that this was an off-the-turfer; but I certainly think he can win with the right setup -- which he'll probably get.

I don't want Mobilizer because his last race was terrible -- though he certainly can win. It was impressive in the sense that he, also, was the only horse to gain against a wire to wire winner but he did so with a perfect inside drafting trip, cutting the corner on the 2nd turn to gain even a bigger advantage. And this, after Big Red Mike had been bid at earlier.

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

[jms62]

Woodbine Racecourse Race 10 5:38 PM Queens Plate Stk 10.0
11-Hotep 3/1
6-Smart Sky 30/1
9-Mobilizer 7/2

[NTamm1215]

I'm betting Wise River in the Firecracker. He's a completely different animal on firm turf.

NT

[SilverRP]

8 Eight Race Scratches

#2 Stars Night Out
#8 Corcho
#11 Stormin Bud
#12 Dark Thunder
#13 Rock Solid Arch


10 Tenth Race Scratches

#4 Nicksappealinglady
#5 Chestoria
#6 Miss Catalyst
#7 Gozzip Girl
#12 Sweeter Still


Why so many scratches?? Jeez

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

gl steve and happy 4th


belmont pick 4s

race 2

pp 6
pp 4
pp 3

race 3

pp 2
pp 4

race 4

pp 2
pp 4

race 5

pp 4
pp 6
pp 8 = 24.00

late

race 7

pp 4
pp 2
pp 1

race 8

pp 1
pp 4
pp 7
pp 9

race 9

pp 2
pp 3

race 10

pp 7
pp 6
pp 4
pp 1 = 96.00

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm betting Wise River in the Firecracker. He's a completely different animal on firm turf.

NT

Churchill Downs Race 10 5:26 PM Firecracker Stk 8.0 T GIII
13-Wise River 15/1
2-Mine That Bird 3/1
11-Euro Ears 6/1

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The problem with this race is that the best horses(s) probably won't get the best trip/setup. I can't go with your choice. I think DRD ran a very fine race last out: very wide with Husbands up, and the only horse (essentially) to gain in relation to the winner the last 2 calls. The problem I have with him is that this was an off-the-turfer; but I certainly think he can win with the right setup -- which he'll probably get.

I don't want Mobilizer because his last race was terrible -- though he certainly can win. It was impressive in the sense that he, also, was the only horse to gain against a wire to wire winner but he did so with a perfect inside drafting trip, cutting the corner on the 2nd turn to gain even a bigger advantage. And this, after Big Red Mike had been bid at earlier.

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

gl im boxing exacta 9, 10, 11

[the_fat_man]

WO R6:

6F on the turf is Field Commission's best distance and he should be very, very tough here. I think the race shapes up particularly well for Jungle Wave, however.

Ebox 1 / 2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Which leaves me with BRM. Game as hell effort last out but he'll probably face early pace pressure today. I think he might be the best horse in the race but the early pace pressure and the added distance probably will work to his disadvantage and to Mobilizer's (and others') advantage. I probably won't bet BRM unless he's > 10:1.

I think the horse that ran a very strong race last out was Giant's Tomb. He was widest, without cover, the entire race and ran gamely to the end. He certainly ran better than Mobilizer. Today, with Smith up, he's ensured yet another wide run. If he's > 15:1, I'll probably bet him to win.

Good Luck

Fats,

Nice work on the Plate. Hope the 5-1 didn't hold you back on Big Red Mike!