7/3-5 (BEL): Suburban (G2); Prioress (G1); Bed of Roses (G3) - Page 2

RockHardTen1985 · #21 07-01-2010, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You don't think he's much based on his race record or are you banking on his injury/layoff compromising his chances?

I want no part of him at all off of this injury and this layoff... I actually heard a public handicapper today, say he could be the best horse in the country if he comes back ok.... I spit my soda out, thats how hard it made me laugh, then cringe. So many reassons why that is not likely to happen, his injury was serious, not the type that all horses just come back from, its been 15 months, who knows if he can even run at all anymore? Then if everything goes 100% great and perfect for the connections, and he comes back strong, now he is better then Quality Road and Blame? I dont buy it, I dont buy it at all... I like Regal Ransom moving forward, and I could be wrong about him... But in this spot, Im playing Regal Ransom and Convocation in some order...

As for his race record, I am normally the guy who goes crazy off of big efforts, and I never did for this horse. I never liked him much, I never liked what he beat and I just was never sold on him, again maybe Im wrong... I can tell you this though, the list of horses who jump up 10-25 beyer points from synthetic-dirt is ENDLESS... It happens every weekend in a stakes at Lone Star or Belmont, horses are bred for dirt. So IWR improved a lot, and beat up on total ****. He dodged QR, because QR was busy turning in triple digit beyers taking the Florida route to the Derby and when he face POTN on synthetics he could not beat him, not that that really matters.

So to officialy answer your question I think his race record is dressed up, and I think the layoff/injury are huge huge concerns and I dont think he was ever that good to begin with.

blackthroatedwind · #22 07-01-2010, 09:56 PM

I'm not very smart, so bear with me....but how is prefacing a statement with " he could " incorrect?

By the way, I Want Revenge has gone from " suspect returning from an injury " to " mortal lock " with your gibberish.

the_fat_man · #23 07-01-2010, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, I Want Revenge has gone from " suspect returning from an injury " to " mortal lock " with your gibberish.

Has Rudy or Sidney taken over the training of the horse?

RockHardTen1985 · #24 07-01-2010, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not very smart, so bear with me....but how is prefacing a statement with " he could " incorrect?

By the way, I Want Revenge has gone from " suspect returning from an injury " to " mortal lock " with your gibberish.

I could be better then you?

I could be president?

Very silly, right?

Its just my opinion Andy, your likely right.... I just dont think he is much.
I do have to defend myself a little, and I dont think anything I said was gibberish. Also, I said not likely to happen, the older crop is not **** like last year, he would have to come back as good and then improve to be the best.

10 pnt move up · #25 07-01-2010, 10:12 PM

The Prioress is usually a really good race between the Acorn and the Test, any idea why it attracted such a small field?

blackthroatedwind · #26 07-01-2010, 10:15 PM

Once again, since you didn't answer my question, how is saying " he could " wrong?

Regardless of your opinion, which whether good or bad can be wrong, I Want Revenge was the pre-Derby co-favorite with Quality Road, and the favorite when that one was scratched. His two dirt races last year were tremendous. Of course he is tremendously suspect on Saturday. That goes without saying. But, that doesn't change the possibility that he COULD pick up where he left off last year. Yes, I too will believe it when I see it, but that doesn't change the existance of the possibility.

NTamm1215 · #27 07-01-2010, 10:17 PM

I'm no veterinarian but wasn't IWR's injury one that horses normally don't return from or are rarely the same afterwards?

NT

blackthroatedwind · #28 07-01-2010, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm no veterinarian but wasn't IWR's injury one that horses normally don't return from or are rarely the same afterwards?

NT

So it seems....but are we absolutely sure what exactly was wrong with him and haven't there been some recent advances treating his supposed injury?

Believe me, I'm dubious, or at least was until reading some recent posting here. Now I can't see him losing.

RockHardTen1985 · #29 07-01-2010, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again, since you didn't answer my question, how is saying " he could " wrong?

Regardless of your opinion, which whether good or bad can be wrong, I Want Revenge was the pre-Derby co-favorite with Quality Road, and the favorite when that one was scratched. His two dirt races last year were tremendous. Of course he is tremendously suspect on Saturday. That goes without saying. But, that doesn't change the possibility that he COULD pick up where he left off last year. Yes, I too will believe it when I see it, but that doesn't change the existance of the possibility.

Direct answer to your question....
I never said you were wrong, go read it again... My exact words were, "So manys reassons why thats not likely to happen"

NTamm1215 · #30 07-01-2010, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So it seems....but are we absolutely sure what exactly was wrong with him and haven't there been some recent advances treating his supposed injury?

Believe me, I'm dubious, or at least was until reading some recent posting here. Now I can't see him losing.

What has been stated here is nearly identical to him starting the race at the 1 1/16th mile mark and being able to run without Talamo.

I'll say this much, I'm not betting IWR but this race should set up beautifully for him.

NT

blackthroatedwind · #31 07-01-2010, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Direct answer to your question....
I never said you were wrong, go read it again... My exact words were, "So manys reassons why thats not likely to happen"

I know what you wrote. It was a veiled cheap shot.

Be a man if you're going to do it in the future.

RockHardTen1985 · #32 07-01-2010, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know what you wrote. It was a veiled cheap shot.

Be a man if you're going to do it in the future.

It was not that cheap, if anything it was borderline. Not meant to argue either just discuss horse/race.

miraja2 · #33 07-01-2010, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

As for his race record, I am normally the guy who goes crazy off of big efforts, and I never did for this horse. I never liked him much, I never liked what he beat and I just was never sold on him, again maybe Im wrong... I can tell you this though, the list of horses who jump up 10-25 beyer points from synthetic-dirt is ENDLESS... It happens every weekend in a stakes at Lone Star or Belmont, horses are bred for dirt. So IWR improved a lot, and beat up on total ****. He dodged QR, because QR was busy turning in triple digit beyers taking the Florida route to the Derby and when he face POTN on synthetics he could not beat him, not that that really matters.

So to officialy answer your question I think his race record is dressed up, and I think the layoff/injury are huge huge concerns and I dont think he was ever that good to begin with.

If you didn't like him the days leading up to last year's Derby I think you were crazy. I went to bed last year on that Friday night more convinced than I ever had been that I knew who was going to win that race. His Wood Memorial was simply outstanding and there is every reason to believe that without the injury he could have had a dominant season last year.

None of that means that playing against him in this race is the wrong move, but his return certainly has me intrigued.

philcski · #34 07-01-2010, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm no veterinarian but wasn't IWR's injury one that horses normally don't return from or are rarely the same afterwards?

NT

From what I know, you are correct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So it seems....but are we absolutely sure what exactly was wrong with him and haven't there been some recent advances treating his supposed injury?

Believe me, I'm dubious, or at least was until reading some recent posting here. Now I can't see him losing.

By all reports I've heard it was a suspensory, which in my only slightly-above-layman's understanding is when it is severely injured it's like a rubber band that has been stretched too far. It rarely regains it's previous strength/form. There supposedly has been advances in electromagnetic treatments, but I still think it's still pretty dubious. Let's face it, if there was any stallion market at ALL out there he would have been long gone. I think it's 1 in 10 that he returns to his previous form.

philcski · #35 07-01-2010, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

If you didn't like him the days leading up to last year's Derby I think you were crazy. I went to bed last year on that Friday night more convinced than I ever had been that I knew who was going to win that race. His Wood Memorial was simply outstanding and there is every reason to believe that without the injury he could have had a dominant season last year.

None of that means that playing against him in this race is the wrong move, but his return certainly has me intrigued.

I didn't like him going into the Derby. Between reports of his possible injury and my utter lack of trust of Mullins under any type of scrutiny I was not going to bet him at 2-1. That's not to discount his Wood Memorial performance which was outstanding of course.

That being said, last years' Derby is still inscrutable to me and we know the results!

blackthroatedwind · #36 07-01-2010, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

From what I know, you are correct.

By all reports I've heard it was a suspensory, which in my only slightly-above-layman's understanding is when it is severely injured it's like a rubber band that has been stretched too far. It rarely regains it's previous strength/form. There supposedly has been advances in electromagnetic treatments, but I still think it's still pretty dubious. Let's face it, if there was any stallion market at ALL out there he would have been long gone. I think it's 1 in 10 that he returns to his previous form.

Phil, you know I'm the last guy to believe the hype, and you are most likely right about the stallion situation, but it's still pretty intriguing. I guess you could say I am wishing he could come back, despite the odds ( 10% seems low but it may be fair ), as the prospect would be pretty cool. I like Blame, but let's be serious, he hasn't done enough on the track right now to be considered a serious threat to Quality Road. If anything, right now, HE feels like the bet against ( I realize he's not the favorite ) in the Whitney. As long a shot as it seems, and probably is, the sexiest matchup would be Quality Road/I Want Revenge. It doesn't appear we are getting the other matchup everybody wants ( at least any time soon ) so why not dream.

I picked I Want Revenge Saturday because he actually feels like the wise guy pick....as nobody seems to like him. I know, he's the favorite, but you know what I mean.

10 pnt move up · #37 07-01-2010, 11:32 PM

Given the connections, I hope he is eased....uninjured of course.

philcski · #38 07-01-2010, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Phil, you know I'm the last guy to believe the hype, and you are most likely right about the stallion situation, but it's still pretty intriguing. I guess you could say I am wishing he could come back, despite the odds ( 10% seems low but it may be fair ), as the prospect would be pretty cool. I like Blame, but let's be serious, he hasn't done enough on the track right now to be considered a serious threat to Quality Road. If anything, right now, HE feels like the bet against ( I realize he's not the favorite ) in the Whitney. As long a shot as it seems, and probably is, the sexiest matchup would be Quality Road/I Want Revenge. It doesn't appear we are getting the other matchup everybody wants ( at least any time soon ) so why not dream.

I picked I Want Revenge Saturday because he actually feels like the wise guy pick....as nobody seems to like him. I know, he's the favorite, but you know what I mean.

We need all the good horses we can get right now, and I'll hold my nose about the human connections and hope he comes back 100%. He could actually be really good, unlike a lot of these plugs that make up the handicap division. Blame has done a lot of good but he really isn't a threat to QR, no. Regal Ransom could be really good- cross a line through the synthetic races and the Derby and he's 5/3-2-0. I guess as a fan I'm rooting for those two to come back 100% but as a bettor I wouldn't want to take 7/5 or 2/1. If the morning line is wrong, and it's more like 5/2 and 3/1... I'll reconsider, but I think Eric has it right.

blackthroatedwind · #39 07-01-2010, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

We need all the good horses we can get right now, and I'll hold my nose about the human connections and hope he comes back 100%. He could actually be really good, unlike a lot of these plugs that make up the handicap division. Blame has done a lot of good but he really isn't a threat to QR, no. Regal Ransom could be really good- cross a line through the synthetic races and the Derby and he's 5/3-2-0. I guess as a fan I'm rooting for those two to come back 100% but as a bettor I wouldn't want to take 7/5 or 2/1. If the morning line is wrong, and it's more like 5/2 and 3/1... I'll reconsider, but I think Eric has it right.

Jay made the line....Eric is out for a few days.

I agree about Regal Ransom....he looks a LOT better if you just look at his dirt races. He was lucky to win the Super Derby, but it was off a 4 month layoff. He can run.

The whole thing may well fall apart, and Convocation could win, but I'm rooting for the " more good horses " plot line. We'll see. I'm not shilling here.....I think it's a very intriguing race.

philcski · #40 07-01-2010, 11:52 PM

I think it's an interesting race from a lot of angles too.

Runner not talked about yet: Haynesfield. Obviously on paper the race shape doesn't fit him well but draw a line through the debut and the drubbing by IWR (I think he came out with an injury if I remember correctly), and the horse is a head from undefeated in the remaining races- and the head loss was off the injury layoff. Actually really talented or just well managed? Tough call. I did like his return a lot though.

Sidenote, he must have worked like crap at KEE because an intact Speightstown NYB seems like a pretty good buy to me. Where is Drugs with the workout analysis?!?