What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple? - Page 3

my miss storm cat · #41 05-05-2010, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

What say you of his chances?

Zero cause Caracortada is gonna win the Preakness.

randallscott35 · #42 05-05-2010, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Zero cause Caracortada is gonna win the Preakness.

Free money in the pools with that play.

2Hot4TV · #43 05-05-2010, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

NTamm1215 · #44 05-05-2010, 07:54 PM

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

randallscott35 · #45 05-05-2010, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

Wholeheartedly agree. I expect him to win as well. Was able to win with a 1 in thoros, barely breaking his 2 yr old top. He is unlikely to go backwards in this race and who exactly is going to move forwards and beat him?

the_fat_man · #46 05-05-2010, 08:14 PM

I don't know. Is the field for the Preakness set?

SS hasn't really run a 'huge' race and he got a very, very nice trip in the Derby. Not only did he save ground but he was nicely positioned just behind the fast pace. I suppose if he gets an absolutely perfect trip again he wins. If he's asked to do some of his own running, however, he hasn't shown, to this point, except for the CD race, that he can do it. Combine this with low odds and 'no thanks'.

my miss storm cat · #47 05-05-2010, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

He goes down in the Preakness. Runs well in the race and just like Mind that Bird he wont be real tough to beat the rest of the year.

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

my miss storm cat · #48 05-05-2010, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't know. Is the field for the Preakness set?

SS hasn't really run a 'huge' race and he got a very, very nice trip in the Derby. Not only did he save ground but he was nicely positioned just behind the fast pace. I suppose if he gets an absolutely perfect trip again he wins. If he's asked to do some of his own running, however, he hasn't show, to this point, except for the CD race, that he can do it. Combine this with low odds and 'no thanks'.

I think this is the first time I've ever agreed with you.

Indian Charlie · #49 05-05-2010, 09:11 PM

Am I the only person who thinks Super Saver runs his best races, by far, at CD?

I think he's a terrible bet in the Preakness.

randallscott35 · #50 05-05-2010, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Am I the only person who thinks Super Saver runs his best races, by far, at CD?

I think he's a terrible bet in the Preakness.

Did you see the PPs for the Preakness? Not much there.

reese · #51 05-05-2010, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Am I the only person who thinks Super Saver runs his best races, by far, at CD?

I think he's a terrible bet in the Preakness.

I think Super Saver can run outside of CD. He won his second career race, 1 mile at Belmont in slop, on 9/09 by 7 lenghts.

I think Super Saver is live in the Preakness. He has speed, not a plodder.
The Belmont is another story though.

Indian Charlie · #52 05-05-2010, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Did you see the PPs for the Preakness? Not much there.

Yep.

Schoolyard Dreams, for instance. He's not much.

How'd he do in the Wood and the TB race?

JerseyJ · #53 05-06-2010, 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reese

I think Super Saver can run outside of CD. He won his second career race, 1 mile at Belmont in slop, on 9/09 by 7 lenghts.

I think Super Saver is live in the Preakness. He has speed, not a plodder.
The Belmont is another story though.

Key word, slop, exactly what he caught at CD in the Derby...

Frankly Super Saver is a terrible bet in the Preakness. On a fast track he's no better than Dublin and frankly Dublin will get back to winning when the owners realize he's a closing sprinter, but to be honest any one of a host of runners can challenge Super Saver on a fast track in the Preakness.

slotdirt · #54 05-06-2010, 05:54 AM

I can't blame folks who want to look at Schoolyard Dreams in this race - if he goes. He was on more than even terms with Super Saver at Tampa this winter.

CSC · #55 05-06-2010, 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

I see you didn't take me seriously when I mentioned I liked Hurricane Ike last weekend, there are quite a few things to like about this horse.

randallscott35 · #56 05-06-2010, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yep.

Schoolyard Dreams, for instance. He's not much.

How'd he do in the Wood and the TB race?

You are resting your hopes on Schoolyard Dreams? Tampa was months ago, new ballgame now.

NTamm1215 · #57 05-06-2010, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I can't blame folks who want to look at Schoolyard Dreams in this race - if he goes. He was on more than even terms with Super Saver at Tampa this winter.

That's kind of a tough comparison to make when Super Saver was making his first start of 2010.

NT

slotdirt · #58 05-06-2010, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

That's kind of a tough comparison to make when Super Saver was making his first start of 2010.

NT

Well, it's not like his second start (or third really, if we're being fair) were that much better.

johnny pinwheel · #59 05-06-2010, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'll say this much and it doesn't apply to the Belmont but I think Super Saver is going to be nowhere near his fair odds in the Preakness. I think he should be a prohibitive (sub-even money) favorite and he's going to be bigger than that.

What's lining up to face him among horses who didn't run in the Derby is nothing to be scared of whatsoever and the horses coming back from the Derby are not much. I believe it will become clear that Paddy O' Prado was greatly aided by the sloppy track. I think Saturday was just another stop on the excuse train for Lookin at Lucky and any chance of Dublin being a good horse was erased months ago.

I fully expect Super Saver to win next week.

NT

i agree with you too. theres not much to beat with ice box out.(it was the only horse that was even close to him). people are talking about "perfect" trip, well, thats two races in a row he got a pefect trip. the horse has tactical speed so he will get a good trip most likely. the only thing holding me back will be the odds. i'm hoping people like some of the other ones and they will because i've heard a million excuses already. if this horse is anywhere near 5-2, i will be all over him.

NTamm1215 · #60 05-06-2010, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, it's not like his second start (or third really, if we're being fair) were that much better.

What? So Super Saver's Ark Derby and Ky Derby were not much better than his Tampa Derby? I couldn't possibly agree with that.

The Tampa Derby proved to be what many thought it was. It was a trio of average horses slugging it out down the stretch with one decent horse who needed a race. He moved forward in the Ark Derby then even more so in the Ky Derby.

I'm not saying Super Saver is some rising star sent to rescue thoroughbred racing from anonymity and there are going to be plenty of knocks on him in Baltimore, but I think it's pretty clear that he's developing and I think the quick comeback may actually serve him well.

NT