What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[Antitrust32]

33.3%

[randallscott35]

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

i agree, with all of this. the number one con is a big point in recent history. it seems like these horses can't take the rigors of 3 races in 5 weeks.

[Thunder Gulch]

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

[slotdirt]

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

He already won one.

10 to 12% sounds about right. His odds make him more likely, as TC hopefuls are always WAY overbet in the Belmont, but isn't it hard to believe he can be over 40% in that race....and probably less?

[parsixfarms]

As the NYS legislature continues to dither, NYRA and the NY racing industry as a whole could really use the financial shot in the arm that would come from Super Saver winning the Preakness. NYRA has been very unlucky on its "big days" recently. Hopefully, that will change and the stars will align for Super Saver in Baltimore.

[FATPIANO]

Let's see how he does at Pimlico, right now we have an evenly matched group of 3 yr olds, except for Esky. If Super Saver can pull off the Preakness, and stay healthy, I'd give him an excellent chance at Belmont, Look at last years Pilgrim. All Calvin would have to do is ride a few races at Belmont and get comfortable over the track. Go Super Go........

[slotdirt]

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300


Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.


Yes +475

No -700

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300


Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.


Yes +475

No -700

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

exactly..

If you like SS you are better off betting him to win the Preakness then parlaying it to the Belmont.

[slotdirt]

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

33.3%

This would be about just right if the question was what are his chances of winning the Preakness. The horse got a perfect trip in the derby, I will be playing against him.

[slotdirt]

Belmont banned bringing in your own beer long before Pimlico ever did. I think that was 2005 maybe? Definitely has cut down on attendance, though that might not necessarily be the direct cause and effect.

Pimlico is letting folks buy mugs for $20 that can be filled as many times as one would like this year.

[Indian Charlie]

In my estimation, Super Saver is not nearly as good a horse away from Churchill Downs as he is at Churchill Downs.

If he wins the TC, I will rename my user name here IndianCharlie1985.