136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

otisotisotis · #1 04-29-2010, 10:44 AM

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

tjfla · #2 04-29-2010, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front

otisotisotis · #3 04-29-2010, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front

I think there's a good chance he gets squeezed at the start and gets forced to follow.

Thoroughbred Fan · #4 04-30-2010, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

otisotisotis · #5 05-02-2010, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

nice knowing ya!!!

just kidding.....i only hit the exacta, but thought it was a nice, even race.

the best moment of the day for me was General Quarters giving the big eff you to Court Vision and his crew...that was great!

slotdirt · #6 05-03-2010, 06:07 AM

Can't blame Gomez for Lucky's troubles this time when Garcia basically made a left turn straight into Lucky about a furlong into the race. That seemed unnecessary.

LARHAGE · #7 05-03-2010, 09:32 AM

Actually Kent Desermeaux turned left into Garcia who had no where
to go but into Lucky, it wasn't his fault. I think they should just make the rail horse run with three legs, same handicap coming from that post, horse has no chance.

slotdirt · #8 05-03-2010, 09:56 AM

At least you can't really blame the break for the trouble. Still, a better horse could have overcome that sort of minor trouble so early in a race.

nomad · #9 04-30-2010, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

You have a good analysis. You're right that Lucky can't be tossed. My daughter says Dublin should be eliminated but he always tries, the way they've been beating eachother, it just might be his turn. My top is Sidney.

Antitrust32 · #10 04-30-2010, 02:43 PM

My picks:

Oaks / Derby double

5, 8 / 2, 10, 11, 15, 20

Race 9 tomorrow: $5 win HULL (#6)

Race 11 (Derby) $2 win Line of David (#5)

exacta Key the 20 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17

then the reverse bet of that also.

might do another small Ex box with the 2, 10 & 11

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!

CSC · #11 04-30-2010, 02:55 PM

My picks are based on the very good chance of an off track.

Quite simply if Paddy O'Prado can handle the switch to dirt or muddy slop in this case, he should sit a good trip behind the speed. Conveyance will be worked in on the slight chance the pace is not as hot as expected. He's too good a horse at an expected good price. Sidney's Candy is hard to ignore and I think this is the year to take a chance on the poly to dirt angle in the derby. Will work in possible longshots to save, namely Stately Victor pedigree is an interesting mix of dirt and turf.

1. Paddy O'Prado might surprise them all.

IrishofNDMan · #12 04-30-2010, 09:23 PM

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

Buffymommy · #13 05-01-2010, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

My husband thinks so. I actually LAUGHED at him when he told me he put some $$$ on Backtalk. But then again I still kick myself for only putting $10 to win on War Emblem instead of the $20 my husband TOLD me to. I laughed at him about that pick too. I only put the $10 to win on WE because I had done well in the other races that day and had some extra cash and it got the hubby to stop calling me and telling me to put money on WE.

knickslions2 · #14 05-01-2010, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

Those mine that bird races don't happen very often.

Buffymommy · #15 05-01-2010, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Those mine that bird races don't happen very often.

I totally agree. I am leaning towards a 10-1 or so less horse winning.

knickslions2 · #16 05-01-2010, 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

I totally agree. I am leaning towards a 10-1 or so less horse winning.

I'm playing Candy, Lucky and Ice Box. Good odds on all and hoping for nice exacta/ triple payout.

IrishofNDMan · #17 05-01-2010, 08:16 AM

I like Sidney's Candy, Icebox, and Backtalk. I am going to bet one to win place, and if Sid's Candy stays double digits I think it's time to load up.

ateamstupid · #18 05-01-2010, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I like Sidney's Candy, Icebox, and Backtalk. I am going to bet one to win place, and if Sid's Candy stays double digits I think it's time to load up.

Jackson Bend has no shot, but you like Backtalk?

Buffymommy · #19 05-01-2010, 08:48 AM

I think Mission Impaz is improving and could do well today and break Todd's winless streak. The more I looked at him, the more I liked him. (Oh who am I kidding. I picked him because he is a roan. haha! I didn't really. I actually like him on paper but isn't that what women are supposed to say? "THE HORSE IS A PRETTY GREY".)

But I think that Jackson Bend and Ice Box will be up for some money.

Got Conveyance in my annual Derby pool at work. So we KNOW he won't win. I nine times out of ten pick the rabbit in the pool.

Buffymommy · #20 05-01-2010, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I like Sidney's Candy, Icebox, and Backtalk. I am going to bet one to win place, and if Sid's Candy stays double digits I think it's time to load up.

I actually threw out Backtalk. (Hubby loves this horse though and I have no clue why.) I also threw out Sidney's Candy. He is not a Big Brown to win from the 20 hole.

Ice Box I really like though.