Does anyone have updated Derby odds?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm curious to see what numbers sportsbooks will put on the futures now with Esky out of the mix?

My guess at odds (16% takeout):
HORSE ODDS
Lookin at Lucky 7/2
Sidney's Candy 7/1
Super Saver 10/1
Devil May Care 11/1
Awesome Act 12/1
Dublin 14/1
Ice Box 15/1
Endorsement 16/1
Noble's Promise 18/1
Mission Impazible 20/1
Line of David 22/1
American Lion 25/1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1
Conveyance 30/1
Stately Victor 30/1
Jackson Bend 30/1
Discreetly Mine 40/1
Backtalk 45/1
Dean's Kitten 50/1
Homeboykris 50/1

[Dunbar]

I think the sportsbooks are waiting for the dust to settle before putting up futures. They may wait until entries are drawn.

Here are the odds you get if you just use the last future odds on the horses that are now likely to be entered, and readjust those odds to make a 16% line.

I listed those odds to the right of Philski's, for comparison:

HORSE Phil's Line, Adj Line from better of TheGreek and 5Dimes
Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1
Dublin 14/1, 14-1
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1
Line of David 22/1, 30-1
American Lion 25/1, 16-1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1[/quote]

*No one had odds for Devil May Care, so I used Phil's 11-1.

The two lines are pretty close except on Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Line of David, American Lion, and Jackson Bend. The discrepancy on Noble's Promise is due to the fact that last week it looked unlikely he would run. So the books offered higher odds to reflect that uncertainty.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think the sportsbooks are waiting for the dust to settle before putting up futures. They may wait until entries are drawn.

Wrong. TheGreek is back up today. 5dimes' Derby odds are still down, but at least you can bet on English darts there.


The current odds at TheGreek are now listed as the 3rd set below.


HORSE, Phil's Line, Old Adj Line, Current odds at TheGreek

Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2, 3.65
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1, 6.05
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1, 16.15
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*, 16.15
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1, 10.15
Dublin 14/1, 14-1, 18.15
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1, 18.15
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1, 14.15
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1, 20.50
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1, 22.50
Line of David 22/1, 30-1, 45.50
American Lion 25/1, 16-1, 22.50
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1, 28.50
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1, 18.15
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1, 52.50
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1, 60.50
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1, 45.50
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1, 60.50

Those odds make a 10% takeout line. That probably won't last long. What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

The biggest difference between these current odds and last week's odds (as well as Philski's line) is Line of David at 45.50-1.

--Dunbar[/quote]

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Wrong. TheGreek is back up today. 5dimes' Derby odds are still down, but at least you can bet on English darts there.


The current odds at TheGreek are now listed as the 3rd set below.


HORSE, Phil's Line, Old Adj Line, Current odds at TheGreek

Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2, 3.65
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1, 6.05
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1, 16.15
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*, 16.15
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1, 10.15
Dublin 14/1, 14-1, 18.15
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1, 18.15
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1, 14.15
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1, 20.50
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1, 22.50
Line of David 22/1, 30-1, 45.50
American Lion 25/1, 16-1, 22.50
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1, 28.50
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1, 18.15
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1, 52.50
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1, 60.50
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1, 45.50
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1, 60.50

Those odds make a 10% takeout line. That probably won't last long. What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

The biggest difference between these current odds and last week's odds (as well as Philski's line) is Line of David at 45.50-1.

--Dunbar

[/quote]

Good stuff, Dunbar. Really surprised at Super Saver at 16-1. Don't think he'll be that high on Derby Day- especially with Borel named.

[randallscott35]

Interactif back from the shed.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...until-draw-day

[Thunder Gulch]

5 Dimes was late to react Sunday morning. I got some Lucky just because I knew I'd get 30% less this week.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

5 Dimes was late to react Sunday morning. I got some Lucky just because I knew I'd get 30% less this week.

Nice. You could probably lock in a profit on the EhorseX-type boards.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

Wrong again, you idiot! (I'm trying to start a flame war with myself.)

Last night, Lookin At Lucky dropped from 3.65-1 to 3.15-1 at TheGreek. But now Lookin At Lucky is up to 3.85-1. The only other change is Conveyance has dropped from 28.5-1 to 20.5-1.

The effective takeout on TheGreek's current line is 10.5%. (But TheGreek hasn't adjusted for Endorsement being out and Make Music For Me being in.)


Pinnacle has odds up for the Oaks:

1 It's Tea Time +1200
2 Jody Slew +4000
3 Quiet Temper +1200
4 Age Of Humor +4000
5 Blind Luck +120
6 Beautician +2000
7 Crisp +1000
8 Tidal Pool +1200
9 Bella Diamante +5000
10 Champagne D'Oro +4000
11 Evening Jewel +1000
12 Ailalea +2500
13 Amen Hallelujah +800
14 Joanie's Catch +4000

Those odds equate to a 15.4% takeout.

Pinnacle will probably put up its Derby line soon after the field is set.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

If only we could use Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Pinnacle has odds up for the Oaks:

1 It's Tea Time +1200, +1615
2 Jody Slew +4000
3 Quiet Temper +1200, +1215
4 Age Of Humor +4000
5 Blind Luck +120, +165
6 Beautician +2000
7 Crisp +1000
8 Tidal Pool +1200
9 Bella Diamante +5000
10 Champagne D'Oro +4000
11 Evening Jewel +1000, +1215
12 Ailalea +2500
13 Amen Hallelujah +800, +1015
14 Joanie's Catch +4000

Those odds equate to a 15.4% takeout.

TheGreek now has odds up for the Oaks, including +165 for Blind Luck. For the fillies with better odds at TheGreek, I've put them in bold above. Using the best from Pinny and TheGreek, you'd have a line with 4.6% takeout.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

He is making Sidneys Candy 6-1 ML, I cant see him being higher then that....

I think that's about right, but if he's 6-1 instead of 7-1, a horse like Dublin goes from 14-1 to 18-1 or Ice Box from 15-1 to 20-1.