Does anyone have updated Derby odds?

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm curious to see what numbers sportsbooks will put on the futures now with Esky out of the mix?

[hockey2315]

Crist had a chart on his blog that shows the effect Esky's absence will have on the odds of the remaining horses. . . only problem is that a bunch of them are in as "all others."

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm curious to see what numbers sportsbooks will put on the futures now with Esky out of the mix?

My guess at odds (16% takeout):
HORSE ODDS
Lookin at Lucky 7/2
Sidney's Candy 7/1
Super Saver 10/1
Devil May Care 11/1
Awesome Act 12/1
Dublin 14/1
Ice Box 15/1
Endorsement 16/1
Noble's Promise 18/1
Mission Impazible 20/1
Line of David 22/1
American Lion 25/1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1
Conveyance 30/1
Stately Victor 30/1
Jackson Bend 30/1
Discreetly Mine 40/1
Backtalk 45/1
Dean's Kitten 50/1
Homeboykris 50/1

[Dunbar]

I think the sportsbooks are waiting for the dust to settle before putting up futures. They may wait until entries are drawn.

Here are the odds you get if you just use the last future odds on the horses that are now likely to be entered, and readjust those odds to make a 16% line.

I listed those odds to the right of Philski's, for comparison:

HORSE Phil's Line, Adj Line from better of TheGreek and 5Dimes
Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1
Dublin 14/1, 14-1
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1
Line of David 22/1, 30-1
American Lion 25/1, 16-1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1[/quote]

*No one had odds for Devil May Care, so I used Phil's 11-1.

The two lines are pretty close except on Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Line of David, American Lion, and Jackson Bend. The discrepancy on Noble's Promise is due to the fact that last week it looked unlikely he would run. So the books offered higher odds to reflect that uncertainty.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think the sportsbooks are waiting for the dust to settle before putting up futures. They may wait until entries are drawn.

Wrong. TheGreek is back up today. 5dimes' Derby odds are still down, but at least you can bet on English darts there.


The current odds at TheGreek are now listed as the 3rd set below.


HORSE, Phil's Line, Old Adj Line, Current odds at TheGreek

Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2, 3.65
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1, 6.05
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1, 16.15
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*, 16.15
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1, 10.15
Dublin 14/1, 14-1, 18.15
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1, 18.15
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1, 14.15
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1, 20.50
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1, 22.50
Line of David 22/1, 30-1, 45.50
American Lion 25/1, 16-1, 22.50
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1, 28.50
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1, 18.15
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1, 52.50
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1, 60.50
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1, 45.50
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1, 60.50

Those odds make a 10% takeout line. That probably won't last long. What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

The biggest difference between these current odds and last week's odds (as well as Philski's line) is Line of David at 45.50-1.

--Dunbar[/quote]

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Wrong. TheGreek is back up today. 5dimes' Derby odds are still down, but at least you can bet on English darts there.


The current odds at TheGreek are now listed as the 3rd set below.


HORSE, Phil's Line, Old Adj Line, Current odds at TheGreek

Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2, 3.65
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1, 6.05
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1, 16.15
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*, 16.15
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1, 10.15
Dublin 14/1, 14-1, 18.15
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1, 18.15
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1, 14.15
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1, 20.50
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1, 22.50
Line of David 22/1, 30-1, 45.50
American Lion 25/1, 16-1, 22.50
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1, 28.50
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1, 18.15
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1, 52.50
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1, 60.50
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1, 45.50
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1, 60.50

Those odds make a 10% takeout line. That probably won't last long. What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

The biggest difference between these current odds and last week's odds (as well as Philski's line) is Line of David at 45.50-1.

--Dunbar

[/quote]

Good stuff, Dunbar. Really surprised at Super Saver at 16-1. Don't think he'll be that high on Derby Day- especially with Borel named.

[randallscott35]

Interactif back from the shed.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...until-draw-day

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

He is making Sidneys Candy 6-1 ML, I cant see him being higher then that....

I think that's about right, but if he's 6-1 instead of 7-1, a horse like Dublin goes from 14-1 to 18-1 or Ice Box from 15-1 to 20-1.