Derby futures

NTamm1215 · #1 04-13-2010, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I've seen better knees on Estelle Getty(http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m...l/DSC_4989.jpg if he is being shopped(which he was after FOY), your obvious out is that all of Pletchers horses wore them that day. Makes perfect sense. Empire Maker was held together with duct tape and almost got there in the Derby...I wouldn't want to see them on Derby raceday I can tell you that.

Look, if you or anyone else wants to say that the wraps going on speaks to his fitness (or lack thereof) and use that as a reason to bet against him, that's fine. I've seen a lot of complete goats look terrific in the paddock. However, many, many people saw this horse in person and I've heard nary a mention of him having physical problems. I saw him in February and he looked fine, especially walking around in a paddock with a horse who did not look well at all (Buddy's Saint). Of course I'd probably have a better chance of diagnosing a deviated septom than an injured equine and I'm no ENT doctor.

NT

Dunbar · #2 04-21-2010, 12:35 PM

After several days without a line, TheGreek has put its Derby futures back up:

1201 Lookin At Lucky +425
1202 Nobles Promise +4050
1203 Rule +2550
1204 Sidneys Candy +825
1205 Eskendereya +205
1206 Mission Impazible +3050
1207 Ice Box +3050
1208 Endorsement +2550
1209 Conveyance +3550
1210 American Lion +2050
1211 Discreetly Mine +5250
1212 Deans Kitten +5250
1213 Awesome Act +1615
1214 Dublin +2250
1215 Interactif +3550
1216 Homeboykris +6050
1217 Jackson Bend +3050
1218 Backtalk +6050
1220 Make Music for Me +6050
1225 Super Saver +2050
1226 Stately Victor +2250
1227 Paddy Oprado +4050
1228 Line of David +4050

The "takeout" in this line is about 20%, and the line doesn't even include the horses that might get in from the Derby Trial or the filly.

5Dimes doesn't have odds up yet. Too busy taking action on who will win the Nathans Hotdog eating contest, I guess:

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - ESPN
Joey Chestnut must compete for action
Sun 7/4 101 Nathan's winner eats over 72½ hot dogs +110
12:15PM 102 Nathan's winner eats under 72½ hot dogs -150

Bookmaker (CRIS) has Derby futures on about 100 horses, including such tempting propositions at Buddy's Saint at 11-1 and Lentenor at 60-1. For the horses that might actually run, Bookmaker's odds are uniformly worse than TheGreek's.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #3 04-23-2010, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

5Dimes doesn't have odds up yet. Too busy taking action on who will win the Nathans Hotdog eating contest, I guess:

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - ESPN
Joey Chestnut must compete for action
Sun 7/4 101 Nathan's winner eats over 72½ hot dogs +110
12:15PM 102 Nathan's winner eats under 72½ hot dogs -150

5Dimes now has Derby futures up, and its odds blow TheGreek out of the water:

Horse, TheGreek, 5Dimes
Lookin At Lucky 4.65 5
Nobles Promise 40.5
Rule 25.5 33
Sidneys Candy 8.45 9
Eskendereya 2.15 2.4
Mission Impazible 30.5 40
Ice Box 25.5 25
Endorsement 20.5 20
Conveyance 35.5 40
American Lion 22.5 25
Discreetly Mine 52.5 60
Deans Kitten 52.5 66
Awesome Act 16.15 16
Dublin 20.5 22
Interactif 35.5
Homeboykris 60.5
Jackson Bend 30.5
Backtalk 60.5
Make Music for Me 60.5
Super Saver 20.5 24
Stately Victor 22.5 27
Paddy Oprado 40.5
Line of David 40.5 45

When only one number is listed, it is from TheGreek. (5Dimes does not have odds on 7 of the listed horses.)

Taking the best odds on each horse, the "takeout" is 13%, but that doesn't include the possibility that the filly or Derby Trial winner might make the field.

--Dunbar