Derby futures

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

I would never argue with that I would just say that there has to be more sound rationale than assuming he's crippled.

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

NT