Derby futures

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

But Ntamm and FM both agree with me.

All I'm on record for with Dublin is that he didn't get the ideal setup in the Arkansas Derby. I also thought that Noble's Promise got a worse trip than he did in that race.

To say that a horse couldn't close in race that didn't come back does not necessarily imply that he gets it done with a better trip. All it tells you is that he's just not good enough to run against the grain. And that he, like many others, needs 'help' to win. I don't typically play horses like this, as I focus on those that have demonstrated that they can do something positive in a setup that goes against them.

Could he be there in the Derby? Maybe. It could turn out that he gets the absolutely perfect setup -- it could be a layered race and he just happens to make the last run.

In other words, I don't want this horse. I never thought much of him and betting him would be throwing money away. I'd rather bet Rule, who is a proven 'fighter' in a race that is sure to be full of speed than to roll the dice that Dublin is able to get that once in a lifetime setup. Then again, Vale of York got such a trip in the Juvenile, so anything is possible.