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#1
04-08-2010, 10:46 AM
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Day 3 4/7/10: Strong closers' bias, which makes sense as there was a strong south wind so the frontrunners were running into it all the way down the backstretch and at 7F or the Beard course that is the majority of the race. Upgrade runners that ran on the pace especially those that stayed on well.
R2: Strong performance from winner FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR, discount 3rd place finisher LOVEYOU EVERYBODY who was especially dull at 4/5. R3: Upgrade TAHOE LAKE, who made a strong move down the backstretch while wide before flattening out. Probably not good enough to win a MSW at KEE but would be tough on a drop. R4: Discount the performances of TANGLED SHEETS and BENTON DRIVE, who basically rode the bias to the win and show. Upgrade TAIF who made multiple moves while contending the pace. R6: Upgrade MOYERS POND, who put in a strong move from the front of the pack while 4 wide to finish 2nd, and SHORE DO who took over the front and held well after the runaway speed collapsed. Discount TEND, who clunked up for 4th but the running line looks better than it really was. R7: Moderate pace on the turf course meant the front runners held reasonably well, but upgrade the winner MISS KELLER who was dynamite and should be a stakes horse in the future. CONSEQUENCE was easily best of the speed; SWEETEST SONG and LA MOUSSE should be discounted. R8: Strong performance from FRANNY FREUD, the only wire to wire/pace winner all day. Obviously she's among the top 2-3 3yo filly sprinters so this isn't a revelation. None of the other runners will win at this level. R9: Huge performance from the Sam Houston shipper ZIPPIN E at 44-1, moved too early and still managed a strong 2nd. Wins next out with a more patient trip.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you 
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#2
04-09-2010, 04:34 AM
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All these views and no replies...so thanks philcski.
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#4
04-10-2010, 09:49 PM
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Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#5
04-11-2010, 12:34 AM
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Do not worry...I saw today...except for the Wiley which got lost when I went to record NBC.
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#6
04-11-2010, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Paul
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#7
04-13-2010, 04:20 PM
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Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.
Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK. * Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out. Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#8
04-13-2010, 04:58 PM
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Day 5 4/9/10: Several multiple length winners on the day, which goes against the standard on poly where most races have less than a length finishes. I do think speed was good, but several of the runners that got away were just much the best which puts the opinion in question. Performance of the day goes to RAHYSTRADA, who took up exiting the turn, lacked room on the rerally, finally got clear behind the pace horses in a merry go round race and ran by them standing still. He won a G3 at 40-1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a huge run at big odds on Derby Day in the Woodford Reserve if they decide to go that route.
Like Thursday, not a whole lot of passing went on, so upgrade SHE'LL HEIR (who blew up the tote at $44 despite about as precocious breeding as you can find), KAREN ANN (wide throughout and green), INDIAN LADY (lost all chance at start), and CLOCKWORK ANGEL (who ran a remarkably good race despite being dismissed at 53/1 with form that fit with the group.) Downgrade MARIA DARLIN (who packed it in despite a perfect trip), DERBY LANE'S SONG (who probably just isn't very good), LEAVENWORTH, COGNITO, and BIMINI (who inherited 2nd after the previous two just quit).
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#9
04-13-2010, 05:06 PM
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#10
04-22-2010, 12:44 PM
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Quote:
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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