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#1
04-06-2010, 06:32 AM
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   The one thing Mine That Bird had going for him from his Derby prep defeats at Sunland going into last years Derby - was that he utterly dominated the 2nd quarter mile in both preps in a big way. If anyone is looking for lightning to strike twice .. and hoping a more patient ride behind a much hotter Derby might somehow lead to impossible Derby paydirt again... * Last place finisher Game Ball (24.39) won the ILLI Derby 2nd quarter. Look for him to improve greatly on his 55 Beyer next time he runs. Obviously won't be in the Derby. * In the SA Derby - eventual 6th place finisher Alphie's Bet (24.39) won the 2nd quarter. He performed dismally as the 3rd choice. A little faster pace could help him improve a little I suppose. * In the Wood - 3rd place finisher Awesome Act (24.53) won the 2nd quarter. Obviously a faster pace would be more to his benefit.. but his Gotham performance where he got such a pace wasn't much. 
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#2
04-06-2010, 10:26 AM
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What did you think about Setsuko's performance? I bet him in the santa anita derby and I think he could at least get a piece. Am I out to lunch?
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#3
04-06-2010, 10:39 AM
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I know I wasn't asked, but I see no reason why Setsuko couldn't get a piece in the Derby. Why not? I'd think he might improve going to dirt.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#4
04-06-2010, 11:28 AM
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I'm not a fan of synthetic closers going first time dirt ... don't get me wrong - some will handle the surface switch fine .. but the dramatic improvement from such a move isn't even close to being as common as it is with speed horses and stalk, pounce, and fade types. I wouldn't totally badmouth Setsuko's chances either though .. he will get pace to work with and he figures to like the distance and his young sire moved way up when switched from turf to dirt.
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#5
04-06-2010, 01:41 PM
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The pace splits on synthetic might as well be turf. Clear as mud when it comes to helping determine anything about going an extra furlong on dirt.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#6
04-06-2010, 02:04 PM
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I've learned not to totally trash anyone's opinion- bad as it may be- but Setsuko figures to grab a piece only if the race falls apart completely, AND he gets a good trip from the rear, AND he handles the dirt. All of those working parts are completely plausible, but we're still talking minor share.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#7
04-06-2010, 03:22 PM
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Thanks for the feedback. I really appreciate it. His come home time confirmed what I saw the other day and I would love to see Papa get a derby. At the same time, I would rather cheer with a full pocket book!
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#8
04-06-2010, 03:45 PM
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I'm a little biased here because I took Setsuko for $5 in Futures Pool #2 (at 65-1) but IF he gets in, he will also be the youngest colt in the lineup. He was foaled on May 8th with Rule probably being the oldest in the gate (foaled Jan 13th). I'm not that concerned about his dirt ability but wouldn't have minded seeing him try it before any of the Triple Crown races. His best days could be later this summer and fall. I do find it interesting that his prior workouts to the SA Derby were bullets, yet he showed no pace in the beginning of the race. There will be at least 10 toss outs in this years lineup but at least this colt can finish and will be in all my tri's and super's.
__________________
A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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#9
04-06-2010, 03:56 PM
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The thing I really want to know about Setsuko is: who is his exercise rider?
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#10
04-07-2010, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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Hybrid Mode
