Derby Prep splits; Come home times
 

Wood Memorial-Eskendereya

:24.3
:24.4 (:49.2)
:24.1 (:49.0)
:24.0 (:48.1)
:12.1 (:36.1)


Illinois Derby-American Lion

:24.4
:24.2 (:49.1)
:24.0 (:48.2)
:25.0 (:49.0)
:13.0 (:38.0)


Santa Anita Derby-Sidney's Candy

:24.0
:24.2 (:48.2)
:23.4 (:48.1)
:23.1 (:47.0)
:12.3 (:35.4)

FYI American Lion's come home was into a stiff wind. It was better than it looked.

It wouldn't matter if he was running into a tornado, he walked on the lead on a track that notoriously favors speed and held off a horse who's never going to win a graded stake beyond a mile.

NT

OK then.

Why is it then that this horse wiped out the field? In fact, other than the runner up, the rest of the field, with the exception of Davie in Dixie (3rd to 4th qtr) lost progressively more ground at each call.

I know that when I race in a slow paced event, I might get dropped late when they accelerate but I certainly stay with the pack till this happens. In this case, they, apparently, went out slow and came home slow, yet the field got gapped. :zz: Can't explain this all in terms of quality.

It was an oddly run race from the standpoint that the 3rd quarter was awfully quick (23.90) compared to the rest of the race. Even if you're going to grant that that quarter was wind-aided, the rest of the field did no running whatsoever. Whether they were of any quality in the end is a question as well.

NT

This is a situation that comes up quite a bit; and is one of the reasons why I don't even look at the fractions most of the time. You have what appears to be a slow pace and a 'quick' (relatively) split dusts the entire field, with, basically, nothing in the race putting in a run (in this case, other than the runner up). I can understand how a quick split would drop the field; however, that nothing makes a move earlier given the slow pace is 'problematic'. This indicates that focusing on pace, how slow the overall fractions are, might not be the 'ideal' way to go.

By way of comparsion, look at Sidney's Candy's last 2 races. He dusts the field with a blistering 4th qtr in the San Felipe YET Caracortado and Interactif both gain in the previous split. In the SA Derby, he runs accelerated successive quarters (3rd and 4th) but the field gains into the 3rd quarter. In both cases, he drops the field but not without there being some kind of gain.

These are different from the Equibase splits:

24.00
24.50
23.83
23.22
12.45

Because it was 9fs - the additional 1/16th of a mile was run into the wind.

Yet, Shadowbdancing's final time was almost 7.5 points slower on a parallel time chart, but his final figure was only 6 slower. Almost like it was somehow slightly rewarding to run an extra half furlong into it.

Since this unusual analysis comes up I'll add my 2 cents. It would seem that if the wind is not "too" stiff, running into it would help some horses. they would be able to consume more oxygen per breathe aided by the force of the oncoming oxygen bearing breeze. thus, more power.

Thanks Fats.. Those were the same as DRF. Bad math by me for the 4th quarter. Have corrected it.

The one thing Mine That Bird had going for him from his Derby prep defeats at Sunland going into last years Derby - was that he utterly dominated the 2nd quarter mile in both preps in a big way.

If anyone is looking for lightning to strike twice .. and hoping a more patient ride behind a much hotter Derby might somehow lead to impossible Derby paydirt again...

* Last place finisher Game Ball (24.39) won the ILLI Derby 2nd quarter. Look for him to improve greatly on his 55 Beyer next time he runs. Obviously won't be in the Derby.

* In the SA Derby - eventual 6th place finisher Alphie's Bet (24.39) won the 2nd quarter. He performed dismally as the 3rd choice. A little faster pace could help him improve a little I suppose.

* In the Wood - 3rd place finisher Awesome Act (24.53) won the 2nd quarter. Obviously a faster pace would be more to his benefit.. but his Gotham performance where he got such a pace wasn't much.

Hey Drugs-

What did you think about Setsuko's performance? I bet him in the santa anita derby and I think he could at least get a piece.

Am I out to lunch?

I know I wasn't asked, but I see no reason why Setsuko couldn't get a piece in the Derby. Why not? I'd think he might improve going to dirt.

If someone told me they liked Mine That Bird last year I would have called them clueless. Even after the two true superstars got sidelined.

I'm not a fan of synthetic closers going first time dirt ... don't get me wrong - some will handle the surface switch fine .. but the dramatic improvement from such a move isn't even close to being as common as it is with speed horses and stalk, pounce, and fade types.

I wouldn't totally badmouth Setsuko's chances either though .. he will get pace to work with and he figures to like the distance and his young sire moved way up when switched from turf to dirt.

The pace splits on synthetic might as well be turf. Clear as mud when it comes to helping determine anything about going an extra furlong on dirt.

I've learned not to totally trash anyone's opinion- bad as it may be- but Setsuko figures to grab a piece only if the race falls apart completely, AND he gets a good trip from the rear, AND he handles the dirt. All of those working parts are completely plausible, but we're still talking minor share.

Thanks for the feedback. I really appreciate it. His come home time confirmed what I saw the other day and I would love to see Papa get a derby. At the same time, I would rather cheer with a full pocket book!:)

I'm a little biased here because I took Setsuko for $5 in Futures Pool #2 (at 65-1) but IF he gets in, he will also be the youngest colt in the lineup. He was foaled on May 8th with Rule probably being the oldest in the gate (foaled Jan 13th). I'm not that concerned about his dirt ability but wouldn't have minded seeing him try it before any of the Triple Crown races. His best days could be later this summer and fall. I do find it interesting that his prior workouts to the SA Derby were bullets, yet he showed no pace in the beginning of the race. There will be at least 10 toss outs in this years lineup but at least this colt can finish and will be in all my tri's and super's.

The thing I really want to know about Setsuko is: who is his exercise rider?