Derby Prep splits; Come home times

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is it then that this horse wiped out the field? In fact, other than the runner up, the rest of the field, with the exception of Davie in Dixie (3rd to 4th qtr) lost progressively more ground at each call.

I know that when I race in a slow paced event, I might get dropped late when they accelerate but I certainly stay with the pack till this happens. In this case, they, apparently, went out slow and came home slow, yet the field got gapped. Can't explain this all in terms of quality.

It was an oddly run race from the standpoint that the 3rd quarter was awfully quick (23.90) compared to the rest of the race. Even if you're going to grant that that quarter was wind-aided, the rest of the field did no running whatsoever. Whether they were of any quality in the end is a question as well.

NT

[the_fat_man]

This is a situation that comes up quite a bit; and is one of the reasons why I don't even look at the fractions most of the time. You have what appears to be a slow pace and a 'quick' (relatively) split dusts the entire field, with, basically, nothing in the race putting in a run (in this case, other than the runner up). I can understand how a quick split would drop the field; however, that nothing makes a move earlier given the slow pace is 'problematic'. This indicates that focusing on pace, how slow the overall fractions are, might not be the 'ideal' way to go.

By way of comparsion, look at Sidney's Candy's last 2 races. He dusts the field with a blistering 4th qtr in the San Felipe YET Caracortado and Interactif both gain in the previous split. In the SA Derby, he runs accelerated successive quarters (3rd and 4th) but the field gains into the 3rd quarter. In both cases, he drops the field but not without there being some kind of gain.