Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I really don't want to get too deep into this because it is a very old topic. Speed figures measure final time. However, on synthetics, final time is often irrelevant. The pace is so slow, especially in routes, that horses are never going to run figures like they do on dirt.

Now, if you want Beyer figures to measure something other than final time, maybe they could be made more accurate, but it is still very hard to do. In racing, the goal isn't to run as fast as possible, it is to win the race. On dirt, these often amount to the same thing. On turf and rubber, that simply is not the case.

So again, I'm not sure what you want Beyer to do. His figures have never purported to do anything but measure final time. On rubber, final time is a very small part of determining how good a horse happens to be.

I think BEYERS do a disservice to those that don't have a firm grasp of the game. That's why we're constantly subjected to the same comments about horses 'improving'. I clearly realize that BEYERS don't account for pace, nor for the surface difference, and the nuances that come with it; yet, they continue to play such a huge role in the game. Comments like 'not fast enough', when the reference is to FINAL TIME, really have no part in the game of anyone who understands even the basics of racing. Beyer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. His figures are 'fine' for dirt, as pace doesn't play that much of a role (at least not the primary role it does on synthetics) but they fail woefully in cases where the 'type' of races determines how 'fast' a race is run. In other words, he CAN'T RECONCILE his DIRT with his SYNTHETIC figures. And, thus, he (and his supporters) really should not be commenting on the ability of horses that run on different surfaces. This would result in:

1) less confusing/comical situations for those who have a gauge as to the ability of a given horse

2) the Beyer camp relaxing their (equally comical) campaign against synthetic horses

This is not to say that there's a way to reconcile these numbers, however. It's just an intractable situation if only speed is involved.

[blackthroatedwind]

The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.

It is every person's responsibility to learn and understand these things. I won't argue that " racing " hasn't done a good job over the years explaining these things to the masses, and too many people continue to lead others in the absolute wrong direction, but ultimately these concepts that CJ laid out aren't that complicated. There are two factors...one is a better job needs to be done to educate....but the bigger one is that people need to be willing to listen....really listen.

Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.

[the_fat_man]

[quote=blackthroatedwind;632714]The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.
Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.[quote]

Exactly. It's all on me. I mean, I was bashing Beyer(s) way before Beyerites were bashing synthetics.

I have an agenda:

1) crush the BEYERITE paradigm

2) crush the Pick(3)4(6) paradigm

Come on, Bro. The game is beatable without having to steer all the neophytes in the wrong direction.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Beyer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. His figures are 'fine' for dirt, as pace doesn't play that much of a role (at least not the primary role it does on synthetics) but they fail woefully in cases where the 'type' of races determines how 'fast' a race is run. In other words, he CAN'T RECONCILE his DIRT with his SYNTHETIC figures. And, thus, he (and his supporters) really should not be commenting on the ability of horses that run on different surfaces.

Can you guess who wrote the following in 1993:

"Racing in England and France, in particular is utterly foreign to an American; horses gallop along in a tight pack in virtual slow motion during the early stages of a race and don't accelerate in earnest until they turn into the stretch. As a result, their final times are unimportant, and speed figures would be useless as a handicapping tool."

The answer is.....Andrew Beyer (Beyer on Speed, p 149).
You make it sound as if by making speed figures for horses that run on synthetic or turf Beyer and other figure makers are engaged in some kind of deceitful fraud. I don't think that's the case. As the quotation above illustrates, Beyer has always been very open about what figures are, and - just as importantly - what they are not. If other people use speed figures as some sort of gospel truth when it comes to synthetic and turf horses, then that is on them, not him. As CJ pointed out, since the figures merely involve the final time, it strikes me that it is up to the individual horseplayer to determine if the final time (and therefore a speed figure) is important or not in a given race.