Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-05-2010, 10:54 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
Fair enough, but one thing I know is that both 9f routes, in relation to final time, were not paceless. The Wood was mildly slow on raw figures, and the older horses were exactly dead on.

On raw times, the Excelsior had a raw pace figure (Beyer Scale) of 92 and a raw speed figure of 92. The Wood had a raw pace figure of 95 and a speed figure of 105. I'm using the 6f time for the pace calls.
I think part of it is people don't realize that the Aqueduct 6F timer at 9F is a little late and when 1:13 comes up on the screen it "feels" slow, especially compared to the 1-turn 9F at Belmont.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-06-2010, 08:31 AM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski View Post
I think part of it is people don't realize that the Aqueduct 6F timer at 9F is a little late and when 1:13 comes up on the screen it "feels" slow, especially compared to the 1-turn 9F at Belmont.

Huh??? I've never heard of timer problems at Aqueduct on the main track. The turf course - where races are hand-timed, yes, but never the main track.

The pace is what it is, no matter when it comes up on the screen. A half in 49.1 and 6F in 1:13+ is slow for a grade I dirt race, whether contested around one or two turns. If you don't believe me, listen to Mike Hushion who described the Excelsior in tomorrow's DRF as a "paceless race." The same article described the pace of the Wood as "excruciatingly slow."
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-06-2010, 08:42 AM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms View Post
Huh??? I've never heard of timer problems at Aqueduct on the main track. The turf course - where races are hand-timed, yes, but never the main track.

The pace is what it is, no matter when it comes up on the screen. A half in 49.1 and 6F in 1:13+ is slow for a grade I dirt race, whether contested around one or two turns. If you don't believe me, listen to Mike Hushion who described the Excelsior in tomorrow's DRF as a "paceless race." The same article described the pace of the Wood as "excruciatingly slow."
I think I'd rather listen to people that bet. They are off base on this one. Ask them what the average winning pace time is for 9f at Aqueduct. I guarantee Mike Hushion doesn't have a clue. When you normalize the final time, the average final time for the winner of 9f races in New York are as follows:

Aqu-ID, 73.85
Bel, 74.09
Aqu, 74.69
Sar, 73.89

You think he, or the writer of the article, know that the 6f pace times for 9f races at Aqueduct are routinely the slowest in New York by an average of nearly 4/5ths of a second? I don't track half mile times in routes, but I know the difference would be even greater, more than a full second.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:01 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
I think I'd rather listen to people that bet. They are off base on this one. Ask them what the average winning pace time is for 9f at Aqueduct. I guarantee Mike Hushion doesn't have a clue. When you normalize the final time, the average final time for the winner of 9f races in New York are as follows:

Aqu-ID, 73.85
Bel, 74.09
Aqu, 74.69
Sar, 73.89

You think he, or the writer of the article, know that the 6f pace times for 9f races at Aqueduct are routinely the slowest in New York by an average of nearly 4/5ths of a second? I don't track half mile times in routes, but I know the difference would be even greater, more than a full second.
I totally agree with everything above.

However ... I have a question.

cmorioles - War Pass finished 2nd and was a half length loser of the Wood Memorial a few years ago.

He dueled with a Bill Mott rabbit through fractions of 22.46 46.07 1:11.50 1:38.42 1:52.35 and just missed. Pretty hot fractions for 9f at AQU on a not-so fast main track.

My question is simply this ... did the hapless rabbit have an impact on the outcome of that race? Keep in mind those two put over 6 lengths on the rest of the field through that wicked 22.46 opening quarter.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:11 AM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
I totally agree with everything above.

However ... I have a question.

cmorioles - War Pass finished 2nd and was a half length loser of the Wood Memorial a few years ago.

He dueled with a Bill Mott rabbit through fractions of 22.46 46.07 1:11.50 1:38.42 1:52.35 and just missed. Pretty hot fractions for 9f at AQU on a not-so fast main track.

My question is simply this ... did the hapless rabbit have an impact on the outcome of that race? Keep in mind those two put over 6 lengths on the rest of the field through that wicked 22.46 opening quarter.
I would assume he did, but War Pass was also the kind of horse that tended to go too fast anyway and tire late. We never learned if he was the type that could rate and go 9f or not, so there is no way to be sure. If I had to guess, I would say without the rabbit he slows down, but it is just a guess.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:18 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
I would assume he did, but War Pass was also the kind of horse that tended to go too fast anyway and tire late. We never learned if he was the type that could rate and go 9f or not, so there is no way to be sure. If I had to guess, I would say without the rabbit he slows down, but it is just a guess.
You're way better than this.

Even I wouldn't still argue that on my most stubborn day.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:24 AM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
You're way better than this.

Even I wouldn't still argue that on my most stubborn day.
I honestly don't remember that much about it because I don't worry about races that happened two years ago. What was the point of the question? Since I didn't know I just gave a generic answer.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:24 AM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles View Post
I think I'd rather listen to people that bet. They are off base on this one. Ask them what the average winning pace time is for 9f at Aqueduct. I guarantee Mike Hushion doesn't have a clue. When you normalize the final time, the average final time for the winner of 9f races in New York are as follows:

Aqu-ID, 73.85
Bel, 74.09
Aqu, 74.69
Sar, 73.89

You think he, or the writer of the article, know that the 6f pace times for 9f races at Aqueduct are routinely the slowest in New York by an average of nearly 4/5ths of a second? I don't track half mile times in routes, but I know the difference would be even greater, more than a full second.
Putting aside the question of whether Mike Hushion knows what he's doing (the numbers seem to suggest that he does), what are you basing these "averages" on, because the only 9F races at Aqueduct these days seem to be for NY-bred NW1X optional claimers or off-the-turf races, hardly a reasonable comparison. These are graded races that we are talking about. With that in mind, and recognizing that the track was faster than par for Bellamy Road's Wood, here are the fractional splits for the Wood and Excelsior from 2005-09:

2009 Wood: 24.2, 48.0, 1:12:1, 1:49.2
2009 Excelsior: 25.2, 50.3, 1:14.3, 1:50.4

2008 Wood: 22.2, 46.0, 1:11.2, 1:52.1
2009 Excelsior: 23.4, 48.2, 1:13.3, 1:51

2007 Wood: 23.1, 47.1, 1:10.4, 1:49.2
2008 Excelsior: 23.3, 46.3, 1:10.1, 1:48

2006 Wood: 23.0, 46.1, 1:11.0, 1:51.2
2006 Excelsior: 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.3, 1:48.1

2005 Wood: 23.0, 46.0, 1:09.4, 1:47
2005 Excelsior: 24.2, 48.1, 1:12.3, 1:50.2

Based on these splits, I don't know how one can argue that the pace for the races this past weekend were "average" relative to the class of the horses involved.

Last edited by parsixfarms : 04-06-2010 at 10:10 AM. Reason: ADDITONAL INFO
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:37 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parsixfarms View Post
With that in mind, and recognizing that the track was faster than par for Bellamy Road's Wood, here are the fractional splits for the Wood and Excelsior from 2005-09:

2009 Wood: 24.2, 48.0, 1:12:1
2009 Excelsior: 25.2, 50.3, 1:14.3

2008 Wood: 22.2, 46.0, 1:11.2
2009 Excelsior: 23.4, 48.2, 1:13.3

2007 Wood: 23.1, 47.1, 1:10.4
2008 Excelsior: 23.3, 46.3, 1:10.1

2006 Wood: 23.0, 46.1, 1:11.0
2006 Excelsior: 23.2, 46.1, 1:10.3

2005 Wood: 23.0, 46.0, 1:09.4
2005 Excelsior: 24.2, 48.1, 1:12.3

Based on these splits, I don't know how one can argue that the pace for the races this past weekend were "average" relative to the class of the horses involved.
Why not show the final times for each race as well?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-06-2010, 10:39 AM
parsixfarms parsixfarms is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,779
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Why not show the final times for each race as well?
I had not done so, because we were discussing the pace of the race, but since you asked, I have edited the above post to include final times.

If you put the pace of the Wood in the context of other Derby preps, the pace in the Florida Derby (46.3, 1:10.3) was generally perceived as "hot," while Discreetly Mine was viewed as getting away with murder in a Risen Star that had fractions somewhat comparable (48.3, 1:13.2) to the Wood.

I have questioned the figure for the Wood because, to my way of thinking (and I think history bears this out), when the Wood winner has been perceived as a legitimate Derby threat, they have usually completed the race in the 1:47-48 range: Fusaichi Pegasus, 1:47.4; Congaree, 1:47.4; Buddha, 1:48.3; Empire Maker, 1:48.3; Bellamy Road, 1:47.0; I Want Revenge, 1:49.2. While I am not doubting the quality of Eskendereya's performance, the final time does not measure up, and I did not perceive the track as being 6 or 7 lengths slower than par on Saturday. That's why I questioned the figure, especially when the performances of Eightyfiveinafifty and Warrior's Reward, which I think were on par with their respective races, were given lower figures.

Last edited by parsixfarms : 04-06-2010 at 11:00 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-06-2010, 09:39 AM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

I'm basing them on all the races at Aqueduct over the last several years. If what you say was a factor, the actual average pace time for Aqueduct would be even slower than what I reported because cheap, bad, and young horses always run faster pace times in relation to final time than classier fit horses do. If you took 100 races won by NW1 NY Breds at 9f that were won in a time of 1:51, and 100 races won be G1 horses with the same conditions and final time, the G1 horses would run slower to the 4f and 6f calls on average and finish faster.

How Mike Hushion trains horses has absolutely nothing to do with how he evaluates the pace of races that have already happened. Just because I know a lot about making figures (at least I think I do) doesn't mean I know how to prepare a horse for his first start or get him to break out of the gate.

As for all the past Wood's, I use figures, not raw times. These are what I have:

2005: 114 pace, 111 speed
2006: 116 pace, 93 speed
2007: 108 pace, 98 speed
2008: 122 pace, 94 speed
2009: 104 pace, 104 speed
2010: 103 pace, 109 speed

It looks to me like you have had a bunch of horses going too fast early and finishing like plow horses in the Wood. Perhaps that is why people are fooled into thinking the pace was so slow this year. It was a little slow, but hardly paceless. Maybe this year the winner of the Wood will actually accomplish something in the future in a dirt route. It would be a nice change.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.