Eskendereya: 109 BSF for Wood

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i agree. Eskendereya loped around three wide behind a pace where no pressure was felt what so ever. the rider could of had the lead at any time. only one horse made a move (awesome act) and he came up with absolutely nothing at the end. they can give him a 109 , a 115 or a 120 for that matter. the horse might as well of been working out. this horse has not had to run hard yet this year. put him in there with 19 other horses with a couple that have nothing to lose when they go 46 to the half and it could be a whole new ball game. break out the bandwagon because i smell 8 to 5 coming....lol. i wish they gave him a 120 as if these numbers ever prove a thing. 24, 49, 1:13.5 and 1:37.7...oh yeah, he was flying...give me a break.

What more did you want him to do yesterday? The horse rated perfectly, exploded when asked and destroyed his competition yesterday. Regardless of price, he proved that as of right now he is the most likely winner of the Derby. Maybe he hasn't had to run hard because of his tactical speed and he is just that much better than what he has faced. Right now, I don't see anything that appears to be better than him. Of course, there are still four weeks until the Derby and a lot can change between now and then, but it is hard to argue that there is a better 3 year old out there than him at the moment.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by pointman

What more did you want him to do yesterday? The horse rated perfectly, exploded when asked and destroyed his competition yesterday. Regardless of price, he proved that as of right now he is the most likely winner of the Derby. Maybe he hasn't had to run hard because of his tactical speed and he is just that much better than what he has faced. Right now, I don't see anything that appears to be better than him. Of course, there are still four weeks until the Derby and a lot can change between now and then, but it is hard to argue that there is a better 3 year old out there than him at the moment.

There isn't. No one has come close to the two performances he's posted. Now, the best horse doesn't always win the Derby (see Point Given in a long list), but no other 3-year-old has shown what Eskendereya has shown in his FOY win and Wood score.

[tector]

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

The derby fell apart last year?

[tector]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

The derby fell apart last year?

Compared to what? Some other Derbies have been trashed much worse--you certainly had a couple of horses last year that made it around the track the evenly. But the winner was last of 19 after 3/4 of a mile. That kind of running style could not have possibly won the SA Derby or the Wood yesterday. So compared to those (the races we've been talking about), sure.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

Compared to what? Some other Derbies have been trashed much worse--you certainly had a couple of horses last year that made it around the track the evenly. But the winner was last of 19 after 3/4 of a mile. That kind of running style could not have possibly won the SA Derby or the Wood yesterday. So compared to those (the races we've been talking about), sure.

I didnt know that you were comparing it to two paceless preps. I thought you were comparing it to other derbies.

My definition of a race "falling apart" is when a majority of the horses that finish in the money were nowhere near the lead for most of the race and the horses that set the early fraction finish close to last. Last year, besides mine that bird, Pioneer of the nile was within a length of the lead at each point of call. Musket man and papa clem were all within a few lengths of the lead for much of the race. Even the two horses that set fractions finished no worse than 8th. The only other horse that closed besides mine that bird was Chocolate candy who finished a non threatening fifth.

See the 2005 vintage for a derby that really fell apart.

[tector]

I believe I referenced that Derby in my post.