Eskendereya: 109 BSF for Wood

[tector]

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

The derby fell apart last year?

[tector]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

The derby fell apart last year?

Compared to what? Some other Derbies have been trashed much worse--you certainly had a couple of horses last year that made it around the track the evenly. But the winner was last of 19 after 3/4 of a mile. That kind of running style could not have possibly won the SA Derby or the Wood yesterday. So compared to those (the races we've been talking about), sure.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

Compared to what? Some other Derbies have been trashed much worse--you certainly had a couple of horses last year that made it around the track the evenly. But the winner was last of 19 after 3/4 of a mile. That kind of running style could not have possibly won the SA Derby or the Wood yesterday. So compared to those (the races we've been talking about), sure.

I didnt know that you were comparing it to two paceless preps. I thought you were comparing it to other derbies.

My definition of a race "falling apart" is when a majority of the horses that finish in the money were nowhere near the lead for most of the race and the horses that set the early fraction finish close to last. Last year, besides mine that bird, Pioneer of the nile was within a length of the lead at each point of call. Musket man and papa clem were all within a few lengths of the lead for much of the race. Even the two horses that set fractions finished no worse than 8th. The only other horse that closed besides mine that bird was Chocolate candy who finished a non threatening fifth.

See the 2005 vintage for a derby that really fell apart.

[tector]

I believe I referenced that Derby in my post.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

I believe I referenced that Derby in my post.

You did. But comparing 2009 to 2005 is fallacious in regards to pace meltdowns. Mine that bird wins that race last year if they would have run 52 for the opening quarter. It didnt fall apart, it was just a garbage race altogether.

If Eskendereya doesnt run, it might even be worse this year. I know im the 1 millionth person to say it but this crop is dreadful.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

You did. But comparing 2009 to 2005 is fallacious in regards to pace meltdowns. Mine that bird wins that race last year if they would have run 52 for the opening quarter. It didnt fall apart, it was just a garbage race altogether.

If Eskendereya doesnt run, it might even be worse this year. I know im the 1 millionth person to say it but this crop is dreadful.

It's better than '08 for certain, and probably better than last year. It ain't vintage but it isn't the worst, either.