The true graveyard of Favorites

[the_fat_man]

Lucky for you, it's not PID.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Lucky for you, it's not PID.

Favorites have won at 35% in the history of the PID.

That's right on the current national avg ... and when you factor in that the average field size is WELL below average nationally ... they probably underperform.

The not very untypical PID race...

* field of 6 or 7

* almost always at least two horses - sometimes as many as all but two who are just hopelessly overmatched and have no chance.

PID - with its sky high takeouts and low pool totals would appear at face value to be the single worst place around to bet.

The beauty of the place is twofold.

* Some of the most extreme and sustained track biases that you'll ever see anywhere pop up for extended periods of time. These are real biases .. the kind you truly almost never see in NY or So. Cal .. and especially not for as long as they last at PID

* Maiden races loaded with debuters and 2nd time starters often get big fields and have a way of attracting TERRIBLE favorites with established form.

Those two factors alone made PID one of the easiest places on the face of the earth to turn a profit at... even though it would logically figure to be among the hardest places to do so.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Those two factors alone made PID one of the easiest places on the face of the earth to turn a profit at... even though it would logically figure to be among the hardest places to do so.

I intended to play PID last year but got sidetracked and focused on WO, AP, and the Cali tracks. In the fall, I went back and did the charts for the PID meet. When I do past charts I like to see if some of my angle horses (chart stickouts) come back and win. Now, this works real well at some tracks (most of them being poly or fair dirt tracks). I was surprised that it went about as well as I'd ever seen it at PID. I'll definitely be playing this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Good luck. My advice is to watch out for the monumental biases that pop up and stick around for a long time.

The common type of bread and butter horse bettor who buys a form or program, handicaps, and makes his bets will get absolutely skinned alive at PID.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

things to look for at keeneland..

horses that dont belong with good work tab
high end jocks ride for no body trainer
speed n fade put overs/in pps wide wide now inside post..
c lanerie
farm owned horses winstar /ect

..gl hooves

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

things to look for at keeneland..

horses that dont belong with good work tab
high end jocks ride for no body trainer
speed n fade put overs/in pps wide wide now inside post..
c lanerie
farm owned horses winstar /ect

..gl hooves

F Lanerie!!!

[booner]

Originally Posted by asudevil

F Lanerie!!!

I feel the same way about John McKee........

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

things to look for at keeneland..

horses that dont belong with good work tab
high end jocks ride for no body trainer
speed n fade put overs/in pps wide wide now inside post..
c lanerie
farm owned horses winstar /ect

..gl hooves

I noticed a few of these last night as I looked over tomorroww's pps. In the Keenland 7th, Albarado is on an Oflee Wild horse with a trainer I've never heard of. At 20-1 I thought he looked like a live longshot.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I noticed a few of these last night as I looked over tomorroww's pps. In the Keenland 7th, Albarado is on an Oflee Wild horse with a trainer I've never heard of. At 20-1 I thought he looked like a live longshot.

Bindner has been around forever it seems. Won the Foster with Colonial Colony, and has trained several stakes winners, mostly of turf stakes. Has a small stable, and normally follows the KY circuit and FG, but didn't winter at FG this year.