The true graveyard of Favorites
 

Keeneland synthetic.

Since going Poly, favorites are just 9-for-66 in stakes races and 3-for-38 in stakes routes.

You have to be out of your mind to take a short price on something unless it's proven to produce its best form over this track. The record of So. Cal synthetic specialists who ship in and get bet is pretty dreadful.

The type of favorite you might not want to try as hard to beat is the debuting favorite in one of those 4.5f baby races. They have won 11 of 19 since 2008 .. for a 58% win rate.

Also 38 for 85 (45% wins) in 4.5f races this past decade when it was a dirt track.

Wasn't WW like 6 for 8 last meet in those 4.5f races? It was something ridiculous. They all won by 6 lengths also

Guys like him, Pletcher, Asmussen, and at one time Ronny Warner and even further back (out of the sample above) Pat Byrne .. they all have been pretty tough with babies in those 4.5f races.

It seems like Rusty Arnold is always bringing in shots. I give his horses a second and third look in whatever spot they are in.

Ward was 3 for 11 in those races last year. He's 7-for-23 in them over the last 3 years.

Those 4.5 furlong races are the only kind of races Asmussen does well at on synthetic.

He's 10-for-40 with a $2.52 ROI with 4.5f horses on KEE synthetic.

In races further than 4.5f at KEE SYN - he's 8-for-101 with a pathetic $0.82 ROI.


At Woodbine poly, Asmussen is 21-for-75 with a profitable ROI in baby sprints of 4.5f and 5f.

Beyond 5f at Woodbine Poly he is just 57-for-411 with a $1.16 ROI. Losing close to triple the takeout from a big sample size.

Todd always seems to pop them.

Release the KRAKEN

Lucky for you, it's not PID. :rolleyes:

Favorites have won at 35% in the history of the PID.

That's right on the current national avg ... and when you factor in that the average field size is WELL below average nationally ... they probably underperform.

The not very untypical PID race...

* field of 6 or 7

* almost always at least two horses - sometimes as many as all but two who are just hopelessly overmatched and have no chance.

PID - with its sky high takeouts and low pool totals would appear at face value to be the single worst place around to bet.

The beauty of the place is twofold.

* Some of the most extreme and sustained track biases that you'll ever see anywhere pop up for extended periods of time. These are real biases .. the kind you truly almost never see in NY or So. Cal .. and especially not for as long as they last at PID

* Maiden races loaded with debuters and 2nd time starters often get big fields and have a way of attracting TERRIBLE favorites with established form.

Those two factors alone made PID one of the easiest places on the face of the earth to turn a profit at... even though it would logically figure to be among the hardest places to do so.

I intended to play PID last year but got sidetracked and focused on WO, AP, and the Cali tracks. In the fall, I went back and did the charts for the PID meet. When I do past charts I like to see if some of my angle horses (chart stickouts) come back and win. Now, this works real well at some tracks (most of them being poly or fair dirt tracks). I was surprised that it went about as well as I'd ever seen it at PID. I'll definitely be playing this year.

Good luck. My advice is to watch out for the monumental biases that pop up and stick around for a long time.

The common type of bread and butter horse bettor who buys a form or program, handicaps, and makes his bets will get absolutely skinned alive at PID.

things to look for at keeneland..

horses that dont belong with good work tab
high end jocks ride for no body trainer
speed n fade put overs/in pps wide wide now inside post..
c lanerie
farm owned horses winstar /ect

..gl hooves

F Lanerie!!!

I feel the same way about John McKee........

Nice kid...very weak rider.

I like Theroit.

I have met him once and liked him. But I have a really bad relationship with him as a rider. If I bet him, he loses; if I don't bet him, he beats me. Drives me up the wall. It has become a big running joke among my friends.

Rusty Arnold started the fall meet red-hot. I think he had 4 or five winners opening weekend including a MSW on the 2nd day where he went 1-2.

NT

2 for 3 today (in non baby 5F sprints). Looks like someone had a talk with Contreras. Factor in the, at least, 10 blown rides by Contreras last year and Asmussen's poly stats wouldn't be as bad.

I suspect Asmussen is going to have a huge (i.e. 'typical') meet and make your stats irrelevant.

I noticed a few of these last night as I looked over tomorroww's pps. In the Keenland 7th, Albarado is on an Oflee Wild horse with a trainer I've never heard of. At 20-1 I thought he looked like a live longshot.