Tidal Pool's Beyer

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Top 5 Highest Beyers by a 3-year-old filly at Oaklawn going 1-mile since 1997:

#1. Tidal Pool 2010 (102)
#2. Rachel Alexandra 2009 (100)
#3. Really Polish 1998 (97)
#4. Eight Belles 2008 (96)
#5. Sweet Sixteen 2002 (94)

#2 won the Ky Oaks by 20 - #3 was 3rd at 30/1 odds in the Ky Oaks. #4 was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. #5 never raced again.


Top 5 Highest Beyers by a 3-year-old filly at Oaklawn going 1 mile or further since 2000.

#1. Tidal Pool (102)
#2. Rachel Alexandra (101)
#3. Rachel Alexandra (100)
#4t. Eight Belles (99)
#4t. House of Fortune (99)

House of Fortune won a Grade 2 stake in So Cal with a triple digit Beyer two starts after her 99 Beyer Oaklawn win - but it was Island Sand, who was 2nd to her at Oaklawn, who would run 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks as a longshot in her next start - and win the Grade 1 Acorn two starts after her Oaklawn defeat to House of Fortune.

I have no idea where Tidal Pool's race came from - she didn't have the easiest trip and she just pissed on a field of all 4yo's .. not something you expect from a 3yo in mid Feb. There's really nothing phony about it.

It's Lukas .. so expect a collapse. No big name trainer in the entire sport is worse than Lukas off of a win. Since 2005 - Lukas is just 22-for-248 (8.9% wins) with a horse who won its prior start. The ROI is an almost too bad to even be believed $0.86 .. meaning you lose 57% on every dollar bet.

Since 2005 - Lukas is 11-for-133 (8.3%) with a $0.68 ROI with horses who won their prior start and return at a distance of one-mile or further. That's a 66% loss on the betting dollar .. four times the takeout.

Bottom line ... little known 3yo filly Rachel Alexandra ran a 100 Beyer in a 50k ungraded stakes race going 1 mile at OP in Feb of last year. Because of trainer stats - you could almost pencil Rachel Alexandra into the Hall of Fame off of that performance. Her trainer was one of the worst layoff trainers in the game.

This year .. Tidal Pool runs a historical speed figure and wins with a performance that has left me scratching my head for over a week now. Because of her trainer .. you can almost pencil in a train wreck.