Change of Plans for Lava Man

[Gander]

It was actually Rupert who kept referring to losing ground in the stretch.
And if the price is right and money is put up front, I'll make a head to head matchup between those 2.

Tim this is getting old its pretty obvious that a fluky pace like none other in the HISTORY of the Arl Million allowed the Tin Man to win, in an effort worthy of victory.
But you are attempting to use one race with an extremely fluky set of conditions as a basis that he is superior overall to the other hores in there.
If you want to believe this then fine, but its not really logical to expect most people to agree.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Tim this is getting old its pretty obvious that a fluky pace like none other in the HISTORY of the Arl Million allowed the Tin Man to win, in an effort worthy of victory.
But you are attempting to use one race with an extremely fluky set of conditions as a basis that he is superior overall to the other hores in there.
If you want to believe this then fine, but its not really logical to expect most people to agree.

You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.

That wasnt an average pace, and if you dont know that then this is a waste of time.
Like I said, look at the charts and check out the pace in teh Secretariat and Beverly D. This pace was a freakish fluke like none Ive ever seen.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

That wasnt an average pace, and if you dont know that then this is a waste of time.
Like I said, look at the charts and check out the pace in teh Secretariat and Beverly D. This pace was a freakish fluke like none Ive ever seen.

I wasn't saying that the pace was average in the Million. The pace was obviously very slow in the Million. I was saying that if you have a front-runner that has a better burst of speed than the closers, then the front-runner will win as long as the pace is not really fast. If the pace is average, then the front-runner will win. In another words, I think TTM would have won the Million even if he had to go :48.

By the way, I don't think looking at the charts tells you nearly as much as watching the race. The final margin of victory may have only been a length or a length and a quarter, but it was much easier than that in reality. TTM blew them away in the stretch. Cacique lost about 3 lengths to TTM from the quarter pole to the 1/16th pole. The race was over at this point. I don't know if TTM was necessarily all out that final 100 yards.

[Gander]

Cacique showed a very nice burst of speed in his last at Belmont. Maybe hes a Belmont horse? English Channel beat him very easily at Monmouth. The Tin Man beat him easily at Arlington. English Channel also beat him at Churchill but Cacique had a very bad ride which cost him the victory.

Originally Posted by Gander

Cacique showed a very nice burst of speed in his last at Belmont. Maybe hes a Belmont horse? English Channel beat him very easily at Monmouth. The Tin Man beat him easily at Arlington. English Channel also beat him at Churchill but Cacique had a very bad ride which cost him the victory.

Easily? Neither win was easy tim, I dont understand that at all.
EC in the UN beat him in a dogfight down the lane, and The Tin Man was full bore after loping to beta him a length.
If those are easy? Whats hard?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.

What you are either neglecting to mention, or don't understand ( though I tend to doubt this ), is that while the Tin Man was racing to his strength ( setting the pace, that is ) Cacique was taken mildly out of his game and forced to be closer than he would prefer on the slow pace. The simple fact is the race set up better for Tin Man's running style than Cacique's. Not that Cacique is a world beater and probably is not a better horse than the Tin Man ( they are close...it's sort of splitting hairs ). but, in terms of race dynamics, in the Arlington Million the Tin Man had the best of it versus really anyone else in the field and unsurprisingly that worked to his advantage...especially versus this year's dramatically subpar field.

Please don't cite the Manhattan as an example of Cacique being good on the lead, as I would guess you understand that was a circumstantial paceless race, and you fully understand the previous concept.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

.

You're assuiming The Tin Man and Cacique started sprinting at the same time. To me, the The Tin Man started sprinting BEFORE Cacique, thus opened up a significant lead.. Cacique(Prado) reacted to Tin Man's move and started speeding up as well. I was impressed with Cacique's ability to close ground under those circumstances. (bottom line, they're both very nice horses and I look forward to a possible rematch on BC day--with many others in the mix as well!!) And I give Tin Man all the credit in the world for dictating that pace and getting he job done.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

You're assuiming The Tin Man and Cacique started sprinting at the same time. To me, the The Tin Man started sprinting BEFORE Cacique, thus opened up a significant lead.. Cacique(Prado) reacted to Tin Man's move and started speeding up as well. I was impressed with Cacique's ability to close ground under those circumstances. (bottom line, they're both very nice horses and I look forward to a possible rematch on BC day--with many others in the mix as well!!) And I give Tin Man all the credit in the world for dictating that pace and getting he job done.

Are you saying that Prado was sitting chilly on the horse after they straigthened away in the stretch? Both horses were all out once they straightened away in the stretch and TTM ran away from Cacique. When two horses are head and head as they straighten away in the stretch, no jockey is going to intentionally let the other horse pull away by 3 lengths. Prado simply didn't have the horse to keep up. He got outsprinted. Even Oracle admitted that Cacique does not have the burst of speed that TTM has.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Are you saying that Prado was sitting chilly on the horse after they straigthened away in the stretch? Both horses were all out once they straightened away in the stretch and TTM ran away from Cacique. When two horses are head and head as they straighten away in the stretch, no jockey is going to intentionally let the other horse pull away by 3 lengths. Prado simply didn't have the horse to keep up. He got outsprinted. Even Oracle admitted that Cacique does not have the burst of speed that TTM has.

Yeah Rupert but the Tin Man doesnt have the ability to give his burst without the right conditions.
Look, this is all quite dumb.
Gurantee!!!! you that if both go in the BC that Cacique finishes ahead of him, absolute cinch to happen.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah Rupert but the Tin Man doesnt have the ability to give his burst without the right conditions.
Look, this is all quite dumb.
Gurantee!!!! you that if both go in the BC that Cacique finishes ahead of him, absolute cinch to happen.

What are you talking about? He doesn't need the right conditions to do it. The Million wasn't his only good race this year. He has 4 wins and a second this year. The Million was the only race where he got a crawling pace.

He gave David Junior a good battle. DJ is in the top two or three best horses in the world.

Even though TTM may be a better horse at 1 1/4 miles than 1 1/2 miles, I would still be very surprised if Cacique outfinishes him in the BC Turf. I think that TTM will beat both Cacique and EC in the BC Turf.