Change of Plans for Lava Man
 

Doug O'Neill had originally planned on running Lava Man in the Clement Hirsch at 1 1/4 miles on the grass. He wanted to run there because that would have given him 5 weeks before the BC Classic. But when he realized that he was going to have to face the The Tin Man in there, he came to his senses and decided to run in the Goodwood instead. The Goodwood is 1 1/8 miles on the dirt and is 4 weeks before the BC Classic. I think O'Neill made a good choice. the Goodwood will be a much easier race.

Would have been a great thing to see Rupert (Lava Man vs Tin Man).
People on here just dont give either one of these the credit they deserve. I would love to see both win on BC Day. Its not that far fetched either.

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November:D

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

He doesn't need to be on the lead to win. He's won plenty of times from off the pace.

He hasn't won from off the pace in the BC...

Neither have any of the other horses that will be in the race.

Better Talk Now?

Oh that's right. You are correct. I still like The Tin Man's chances a lot better than Better Talk Now.

We'll see...I actually like The Tin Man...I just don't see him winning in the BC...time will tell.

It's a big mistake to run him within 6 weeks of the Breeder's Cup.This horse will do best with atleast 6 weeks rest before a huge race like this.Do you remember when he almost got beat at Hollywood? That's the way he will look if he doesn't have enough time between races.

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

Good luck, he's not hitting the board.

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

Not saying that the Tin Man is my choice but just remember 1998 at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup Day THere was a Little Colt Called Bucks Boy that put them all to Sleep on ther front end that day and wired the field in the BC Turf. So to say he can't set Slow fractions again is totally not true.

Yes Rupert but lets not forget the Tin Man's win in the Arl Million didnt count because for once English Channel didnt get his perfect just off the pace trip. So lets throw that out and only count the races English Channel and Cacique won.

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

Did you even watch the Hollywood Gold Cup? Lava Dude stumbled out of the gate and spotted the field several lengths, had to run from behind horses, something he doesn't like to do. Despite all that, he still managed to get up and win, conceding chunks of weight to the others.

When he was a 'cheap' horse, Lava Man had no problem with running decent races two or even one week apart (2 stakes races at Pomona in 2004 - won one, third in the other).

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood