Change of Plans for Lava Man

Originally Posted by Gander

English Channel wont ship out there, will he? Why wouldnt he just run at Belmont on Oct 7th and avoid facing the Tin Man?

Why wouldn't he do both Tim?
And Tim really, I mean that day at Arlington the fillies went in 1:11:3 and the million was in 1:15. I don't think you understand just how slow that pace was, you certainly don't if you are asking that question.
Picture the Tin Man running that fast against the fillies in the beverly D, he'd have been 17 lengths off the lead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! '
That pace wasn't slow, it was a walk for real.
Sorry but no matter who sets a pace like that, its hard to take the race at face value.
Its not a knock against the Tin Man at all, and noone is knocking him.
But its just unrealistic that he could get away with that in the Breeders
Cup.
So Tim, just to clarify this, are you saying he will win the Breeders Cup? Because you can't have it both ways. hes either than good without an easy lead, or hes not. And you either think that ever in his life again he could get loose in 1:15, or its not.
But I will tell you this, as much as you wanna bet, lemme know, I want Cacique heads up agaisnt him the next time they meet.

[Danzig]

just did an archive search on drf, sure enough, english channel is mentioned as going out west, as is wait a while. or MAY be going out west...who knows?? guess we'll see!


http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...4&subs=0&arc=1

Honu you can get on your best and get ready to pose.
I just pulled the nominations and pp's for the nominees. With lava Man not running, that leaves you and 7 hopelessly overmatched rivals. Not a bonafide graded stakes horse among them. You will be 1-5 in there.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't understand how anybody can honestly consider ANY of the current US based horses in the BC Turf assuming any of the anticipated Euros show up. The likes of Hurricane Run are significantly better than these horses. Don't get me wrong, the Tin Man is an admirable horse, especially considering his age, but any neutral observer ( I didn't bet the race and was glad to see both Cacique and English Channel bite the dust ) knows that he won because he was allowed to walk on the lead. Cacique and English Channel are also both very nice horses, but they have all been successful this year against modest competition in races where they too got good setups. Showing Up is another very nice horse, and his Secretariat win was terrific, but he failed to either rate successfully or negotiate the added distance in the Man O' War. Considering the utter domination incurred upon our horses by the even modest looking Euro group that arrived last year I fail to see how anybody can be seriously entertaining notions of any of these horses winning the BC Turf. Obviously we have to wait and see who actually shows up but with the Arc five weeks before this years BC, as opposed to THREE weeks last year, I anticipate our horses will once again be severely up against it.

Hardly taking a stand but I am surprised at the vehemnace with which people are defending a fairly lackluster bunch.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Why wouldn't he do both Tim?
And Tim really, I mean that day at Arlington the fillies went in 1:11:3 and the million was in 1:15. I don't think you understand just how slow that pace was, you certainly don't if you are asking that question.
Picture the Tin Man running that fast against the fillies in the beverly D, he'd have been 17 lengths off the lead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! '
That pace wasn't slow, it was a walk for real.
Sorry but no matter who sets a pace like that, its hard to take the race at face value.
Its not a knock against the Tin Man at all, and noone is knocking him.
But its just unrealistic that he could get away with that in the Breeders
Cup.
So Tim, just to clarify this, are you saying he will win the Breeders Cup? Because you can't have it both ways. hes either than good without an easy lead, or hes not. And you either think that ever in his life again he could get loose in 1:15, or its not.
But I will tell you this, as much as you wanna bet, lemme know, I want Cacique heads up agaisnt him the next time they meet.

You are right oracle to think that jockeys wont be that dumb again and give him an easy lead , ha but what if they do , that would be fricken funny, and it could happen. For sure Victor rides this horse 100 percent better than Mike Smith , Mike used to just let him fly out to the lead and open up as much as he could and see if they could come and catch him which Johar and High Chapparell did in the 2003 Breeders cup and he wasnt as good as he is now.
But if he draws a middle to outside post and someone chooses to go to the front and set some pace well then he will stalk and he can stalk and he can win doing it . Because I kind of get tunnel vision , who will be the pace setters in the Breeders Cup?

Originally Posted by Honu

You are right oracle to think that jockeys wont be that dumb again and give him an easy lead , ha but what if they do , that would be fricken funny, and it could happen. For sure Victor rides this horse 100 percent better than Mike Smith , Mike used to just let him fly out to the lead and open up as much as he could and see if they could come and catch him which Johar and High Chapparell did in the 2003 Breeders cup and he wasnt as good as he is now.
But if he draws a middle to outside post and someone chooses to go to the front and set some pace well then he will stalk and he can stalk and he can win doing it . Because I kind of get tunnel vision , who will be the pace setters in the Breeders Cup?

Honu!! How was Hawaii?
To be honest I'm not real sure who is coming from Europe and what the pace implications will be from those who do come. I'm not sure if Showing Up is planning on running in that race either, but he would have tactical speed to at least insure he doesnt get away in 1:15 again.
As far as Americans pointing to it, I only know of Cacique and English Channel and I think EC has more speed than he showed last time but that the post postition caused them to try and rate.
Not sure how the pace will unfold at this point.
Is the Tin Man gonna be in the Hirsch this weekend?

[Honu]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Honu!! How was Hawaii?
To be honest I'm not real sure who is coming from Europe and what the pace implications will be from those who do come. I'm not sure if Showing Up is planning on running in that race either, but he would have tactical speed to at least insure he doesnt get away in 1:15 again.
As far as Americans pointing to it, I only know of Cacique and English Channel and I think EC has more speed than he showed last time but that the post postition caused them to try and rate.
Not sure how the pace will unfold at this point.
Is the Tin Man gonna be in the Hirsch this weekend?

Hawaii was awesome!!!!!!! I got to see some old friends and boogie boarded on my favorite beaches, alltho there wasnt much breaking except in town I cought some wee waves and had fun anyway. Snorkled with some "Honu's" ( about 5 of them the first day) and saw some eel's and a black Grouper that was about 5 feet long. Ill send you some pics( if you want ) but it really doesnt capture the beauty of the island but youll get the idea.
TTM is going to run this weekend , I worked him on the grass the other day and I really feel he is doing better than ever , he is an amazing horse to be around. If you watched him gallop on the dirt youd be like who is that claimer but when he gets on the grass he is a whole diffirent animal.

Originally Posted by Honu

Hawaii was awesome!!!!!!! I got to see some old friends and boogie boarded on my favorite beaches, alltho there wasnt much breaking except in town I cought some wee waves and had fun anyway. Snorkled with some "Honu's" ( about 5 of them the first day) and saw some eel's and a black Grouper that was about 5 feet long. Ill send you some pics( if you want ) but it really doesnt capture the beauty of the island but youll get the idea.
TTM is going to run this weekend , I worked him on the grass the other day and I really feel he is doing better than ever , he is an amazing horse to be around. If you watched him gallop on the dirt youd be like who is that claimer but when he gets on the grass he is a whole diffirent animal.

Send the pics! Never seen hawaii.
I figured this had to be the race he was prepping in. Any idea who the competition is? I'm gonna go look up the nominations now.

[Gander]

Wow, thanks for the update Honu. Best of luck this weekend. I'll be watching and rooting.

To answer your question Mike, yes I do feel the Tin Man can win the BC. I have a gut feeling he will not be on the lead in the race, rather sit 2nd or 3rd and win rating. Regarding a head to head with Cacique, we'll have to work out some kind of odds on that. I wouldnt take that bet straight up when I can get it at Pinnacle for a much nicer payoff. Actually, I'd rather just bet him to win, because if he doesnt win, it will probably be Cacique who beats him.

Not sure why you would propose the Tin Man would run in both the Hirsch and the Oct 7th race, and then the BC? 3 grade 1's in a matter of 8 weeks?
That would be asking a lot and normally isnt how Mandella works.

Originally Posted by Gander

Wow, thanks for the update Honu. Best of luck this weekend. I'll be watching and rooting.

To answer your question Mike, yes I do feel the Tin Man can win the BC. I have a gut feeling he will not be on the lead in the race, rather sit 2nd or 3rd and win rating. Regarding a head to head with Cacique, we'll have to work out some kind of odds on that. I wouldnt take that bet straight up when I can get it at Pinnacle for a much nicer payoff. Actually, I'd rather just bet him to win, because if he doesnt win, it will probably be Cacique who beats him.

Not sure why you would propose the Tin Man would run in both the Hirsch and the Oct 7th race, and then the BC? 3 grade 1's in a matter of 8 weeks?
That would be asking a lot and normally isnt how Mandella works.

Huh?
Tim, I mean that EC would run in the Oct 7th race and the Cup, I wasnt talking about the Tin Man. And why would EC ship out there to run in race worth less money and about 1/10th the prestige? It would make zero sense.

[Gander]

Yup, I misunderstood your post, sorry. I have no idea why Todd would ship his horse out there, that was news to me. Somebody mentioned on here that was the story and I did not think it could possibly be true.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Honu

Hawaii was awesome!!!!!!! I got to see some old friends and boogie boarded on my favorite beaches, alltho there wasnt much breaking except in town I cought some wee waves and had fun anyway. Snorkled with some "Honu's" ( about 5 of them the first day) and saw some eel's and a black Grouper that was about 5 feet long. Ill send you some pics( if you want ) but it really doesnt capture the beauty of the island but youll get the idea.
TTM is going to run this weekend , I worked him on the grass the other day and I really feel he is doing better than ever , he is an amazing horse to be around. If you watched him gallop on the dirt youd be like who is that claimer but when he gets on the grass he is a whole diffirent animal.

Honu, the Big Island is about my favorite place in the world. I spend 3-5 weeks there most summers. Love snorkeling at Two-steps and Captain Cooks. Even Kahalu'u is fun for a quick late afternoon snorkel. And body-surfing at Hapuna. Love the plumeria and the geckos and all that black lava rock. mmmmmmm....

I'm staring at a big honu pic I took a couple of years ago and blew up into a poster for the wall above my desk.

How's Kilauea behaving?

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Oracle, I am still curious to hear your explanation as to why Cacique and EC were losing ground in the stretch in the Million.

As I said before, I will use a slow pace as an excuse for come-from-behinders if they are at least closing some ground in the stretch. But if they are losing ground in the stretch, there is no way to use the pace as an excuse for their loss.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Honu, the Big Island is about my favorite place in the world. I spend 3-5 weeks there most summers. Love snorkeling at Two-steps and Captain Cooks. Even Kahalu'u is fun for a quick late afternoon snorkel. And body-surfing at Hapuna. Love the plumeria and the geckos and all that black lava rock. mmmmmmm....

I'm staring at a big honu pic I took a couple of years ago and blew up into a poster for the wall above my desk.

How's Kilauea behaving?

--Dunbar

Madame Pele is still showing her stuff , but most you have to see from a boat.
Hey did you know they paved the road to Kua Bay , it used to be 4wd only , but now it has bathrooms and everything. I went out to Hapuna hopin to catch some waves but it was pretty flat , thats where I saw the 5 ft Grouper, out along the south cliff, goin towards beach 68. The first day I went to Kona Coast state park and there wasnt one person there for about 2 hours , it was so awesome felt like I was in my own private paradise.
Talking about 2 steps, ive snorkled there and well its easier gettin in than out , so I waited for a wave to coast in on , got up on the step real nice and sat on a sea urchin that was in a puka, to say the least you know who your friends are at that point as nobody was willing to remedy the situation ( you know what i mean ) lol.

[Gander]

Cacique and English Channel are also both very nice horses, but they have all been successful this year against modest competition in races where they too got good setups.

Thanks Andy. Finally somebody besides myself calls a spade a spade. You cant have it both ways, sure the Tin Man got creampuff fractions, but thats horse racing. English Channel got the dreamiest trips possible in both his grade 1 wins and so too did Cacique in his.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Honu

Madame Pele is still showing her stuff , but most you have to see from a boat.
Hey did you know they paved the road to Kua Bay , it used to be 4wd only , but now it has bathrooms and everything. I went out to Hapuna hopin to catch some waves but it was pretty flat , thats where I saw the 5 ft Grouper, out along the south cliff, goin towards beach 68. The first day I went to Kona Coast state park and there wasnt one person there for about 2 hours , it was so awesome felt like I was in my own private paradise.
Talking about 2 steps, ive snorkled there and well its easier gettin in than out , so I waited for a wave to coast in on , got up on the step real nice and sat on a sea urchin that was in a puka, to say the least you know who your friends are at that point as nobody was willing to remedy the situation ( you know what i mean ) lol.

Good to here that Pele is still going strong. Some years we were able to walk up to within a foot of the active lava ooze. Carefully, of course!

Where's Kona Coast state park? That must have been wonderful. I've been to a few small beaches near Keahou that we had to ourselves.

That's cool about the grouper. I've never seen one that big. At Hapuna I've only snorkeled those rocks right in the middle. Sounds like I should try the cliffs. (That's at the other end away from the resort, right?)

That's sorta funny about the sea urchin at 2-steps, though I'm sure you didn't think so at the time. Those ledges are full of urchins, but I always assumed the holes were deep enough to protect me from the urchins. I know I've sat on them dozens of times without feeling anything. Put my hands on those ledges, too. You must have been a more tempting target than I am. Isn't that a fantastic snorkel spot, though? And lots of times you get to see a school of spinner dolphin come in toward sunset. Driving out the long way, you pass an honor-system lei stand. A must stop for us.

Sigh...

--Dunbar

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Honu

Madame Pele is still showing her stuff , but most you have to see from a boat.
.

Glad to see you give the lady proper respect. When we were there, my daughter was quite taken with Madame Pele's story, and by the Princess who appealed to the goddess to stop a lava flow near Hilo back in the late 1800s; it stopped.

Daughter also loved honu; that was her stuffed animal purchase for the trip.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Honu!! How was Hawaii?
To be honest I'm not real sure who is coming from Europe and what the pace implications will be from those who do come. I'm not sure if Showing Up is planning on running in that race either, but he would have tactical speed to at least insure he doesnt get away in 1:15 again.
As far as Americans pointing to it, I only know of Cacique and English Channel and I think EC has more speed than he showed last time but that the post postition caused them to try and rate.
Not sure how the pace will unfold at this point.
Is the Tin Man gonna be in the Hirsch this weekend?

Come-from-behinders can't use a slow pace as an excuse unless they are gaining ground in the stretch. If they are losing ground in the stretch, they obviously had no excuse. Cacique and EC were both losing ground in the stretch in the Million.

With regard to the BC Turf, the race is 1 1/2 miles. I don't know if The Tin Man is as good at that distance. I certainly don't expect a fast pace in the BC Turf. I would expect a fairly slow pace. I wouldn't be shocked if they run the half-mile in :49 or :50.