Change of Plans for Lava Man

[repent]

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

[Round Pen]

Not saying that the Tin Man is my choice but just remember 1998 at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup Day THere was a Little Colt Called Bucks Boy that put them all to Sleep on ther front end that day and wired the field in the BC Turf. So to say he can't set Slow fractions again is totally not true.

[Gander]

Yes Rupert but lets not forget the Tin Man's win in the Arl Million didnt count because for once English Channel didnt get his perfect just off the pace trip. So lets throw that out and only count the races English Channel and Cacique won.

[Pedigree Ann]

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

The BC Turf is not 12 furlongs this year. Chirchill does not run 1 1/2 mile races. The race will only be 1 3/8 miles this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Since when does Churchill not run 1 1/2? The past BC Turfs there have all been 1 1/2.

You're right. It's only the Filly and Mare Turf that will be run at a different distance. The Churchill layout cannot run a 1 1/4 mile race on the grass, so the Filly and Mare Turf will be 1 3/8 miles.

Someone had told me that the BC Turf would also be run at 1 3/8 miles. That information is wrong.

By the way, The Tin Man has won at 12 furlongs.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

this is being discussed in another thread,
but clearly I was referring to 2002 when he was in better form.
set slow fractions and lost to a somewhat weak BCT field.
he has no chance this year, but please, bet as much as you possibly can on him.

Repent

[Danzig]

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

lol,
yeah that sounds about right.

and as much of a chance as Karens Caper has in the BCFMT.


Repent

[Honu]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

[repent]

Originally Posted by Honu

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

Honu is not a dude. Honu is a girl. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/4 miles, not 8.5 furlongs.

I am mistaken. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/8 miles.

[Honu]

Originally Posted by repent

if you reallly believe that...

Repent

You are a funny basta*d, and I think Rupert would know if I were a boy or a girl because we have met. Purses may be inflated but so are the owners wallets with what the horse has earned this year.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Honu

You are a funny basta*d, and I think Rupert would know if I were a boy or a girl because we have met. Purses may be inflated but so are the owners wallets with what the horse has earned this year.

Repent, remind me what you think of Smarty Jones. (so folks can judge for themselves your knowledge of horse talent.)

--Dunbar

[repent]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Repent, remind me what you think of Smarty Jones. (so folks can judge for themselves your knowledge of horse talent.)

--Dunbar

he sucked.

now go f*ck yourself.


Repent

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

The Slow Man finished 4th in the 2002 BC Turf as the 2nd highest price in the 8 horse field?? I am not sure how that is considered failing miserably picking up a $135,000 check for his efforts. The Tin Man has won every race he has entered in the US this year and finished 2nd in Dubai. He is by all accounts better this year or at least winning at a very high percentage.

[repent]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

The Slow Man finished 4th in the 2002 BC Turf as the 2nd highest price in the 8 horse field?? I am not sure how that is considered failing miserably picking up a $135,000 check for his efforts. The Tin Man has won every race he has entered in the US this year and finished 2nd in Dubai. He is by all accounts better this year or at least winning at a very high percentage.

you dont?
purse money earned is not an exact representitive of how well a horse runs in a given race.
he set slow fractions against a weak running of the BCT and he LOST.
he did not look good in that race.

please review the charts of the race or just watch the tape.


now,
if you want to play him, put him in exotics, or include him on a pick 3,4, or 6 ticket,
then I am begging you to do so.
I want your freaking money.


Repent