Change of Plans for Lava Man

Gander · #1 09-22-2006, 08:19 PM

Would have been a great thing to see Rupert (Lava Man vs Tin Man).
People on here just dont give either one of these the credit they deserve. I would love to see both win on BC Day. Its not that far fetched either.

2MinsToPost · #2 09-22-2006, 08:32 PM

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November

ninetoone · #3 09-22-2006, 08:39 PM

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

Rupert Pupkin · #4 09-22-2006, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

He doesn't need to be on the lead to win. He's won plenty of times from off the pace.

ninetoone · #5 09-22-2006, 09:03 PM

He hasn't won from off the pace in the BC...

Rupert Pupkin · #6 09-22-2006, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

He hasn't won from off the pace in the BC...

Neither have any of the other horses that will be in the race.

ninetoone · #7 09-22-2006, 09:17 PM

Better Talk Now?

randallscott35 · #8 09-23-2006, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November

Good luck, he's not hitting the board.

SCUDSBROTHER · #9 09-23-2006, 01:36 AM

It's a big mistake to run him within 6 weeks of the Breeder's Cup.This horse will do best with atleast 6 weeks rest before a huge race like this.Do you remember when he almost got beat at Hollywood? That's the way he will look if he doesn't have enough time between races.

repent · #10 09-23-2006, 01:46 AM

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.

Repent

Rupert Pupkin · #11 09-23-2006, 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.

Repent

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

Round Pen · #12 09-23-2006, 06:34 AM

Not saying that the Tin Man is my choice but just remember 1998 at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup Day THere was a Little Colt Called Bucks Boy that put them all to Sleep on ther front end that day and wired the field in the BC Turf. So to say he can't set Slow fractions again is totally not true.

Gander · #13 09-23-2006, 07:18 AM

Yes Rupert but lets not forget the Tin Man's win in the Arl Million didnt count because for once English Channel didnt get his perfect just off the pace trip. So lets throw that out and only count the races English Channel and Cacique won.

Pedigree Ann · #14 09-23-2006, 09:47 AM

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

repent · #15 09-23-2006, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

this is being discussed in another thread,
but clearly I was referring to 2002 when he was in better form.
set slow fractions and lost to a somewhat weak BCT field.
he has no chance this year, but please, bet as much as you possibly can on him.

Repent

Danzig · #16 09-23-2006, 11:20 PM

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

repent · #17 09-23-2006, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

lol,
yeah that sounds about right.

and as much of a chance as Karens Caper has in the BCFMT.

Repent

Honu · #18 09-23-2006, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.

Repent

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

repent · #19 09-23-2006, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

Rupert Pupkin · #20 09-23-2006, 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

Honu is not a dude. Honu is a girl. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/4 miles, not 8.5 furlongs.

I am mistaken. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/8 miles.