2009 Breeders' Cup

[10 pnt move up]

I think Zenyatta will be about 3rd or 4th choice. I think RVW, Gio Ponti, and even the likes of Richards Kid, MTB and Colonal John will get bet.

Handicappers rely on Beyer Figures and hers are lower then most.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think Zenyatta will be about 3rd or 4th choice. I think RVW, Gio Ponti, and even the likes of Richards Kid, MTB and Colonal John will get bet.

Handicappers rely on Beyer Figures and hers are lower then most.

There's a better chance of you riding Zenyatta than of her going off the 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There's a better chance of you riding Zenyatta than of her going off the 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic.

NT

yea and Azeri would be odds on in Chicago and not 2/1....there are going to be some many "she cant win" articles being written, I think Crist has it pre-typed. I am not saying one way or another at this point, but get ready for a wave of negativity on this, there is going to be people with pom poms in the horse racing industry/media rooting for her to lose.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

yea and Azeri would be odds on in Chicago and not 2/1....there are going to be some many "she cant win" articles being written, I think Crist has it pre-typed. I am not saying one way or another at this point, but get ready for a wave of negativity on this, there is going to be people with pom poms in the horse racing industry/media rooting for her to lose.

And they are going to be VASTLY out-numbered by people who want her to win. She is the only active horse in the country that has garnered the type of attention that will get the average joe to plunk down their money.

The BC betting is very often driven by reputation and popularity. That is the reason why Street Sense was the favorite in 2007, right?

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And they are going to be VASTLY out-numbered by people who want her to win. She is the only active horse in the country that has garnered the type of attention that will get the average joe to plunk down their money.

The BC betting is very often driven by reputation and popularity. That is the reason why Street Sense was the favorite in 2007, right?

NT

what do average joe's bet...cmon.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what do average joe's bet...cmon.

I'm not going to argue with you but there's absolutely no way two or three horses are going to go off lower odds in the Classic than Zenyatta. No way.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not going to argue with you but there's absolutely no way two or three horses are going to go off lower odds in the Classic than Zenyatta. No way.

NT

I guess we will see, unless we see some defections you will be proven wrong.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not going to argue with you but there's absolutely no way two or three horses are going to go off lower odds in the Classic than Zenyatta. No way.

NT

How much stupid money is bet on the BC? it cant be anything like the Derby where everyone wants to make a bet. If there is a lot of stupid money bet I could see her as the 2nd choice behind Summer Bird (he's a better bet but its also similar stupid money bet on him because of the lack of synthetic experience).

Based on performance it should go - the best Euro should be favored (because of the stupid surface), then Summer Bird, Gio, the next best Euro, then Zenyatta.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And they are going to be VASTLY out-numbered by people who want her to win. She is the only active horse in the country that has garnered the type of attention that will get the average joe to plunk down their money.

The BC betting is very often driven by reputation and popularity. That is the reason why Street Sense was the favorite in 2007, right?

NT

You think so? I dont think she has much of a fan base at all. It would be one thing to say this about Rachel but most people really dont even know who she is. I dont remmeber Street Sense being that popular either. To me he was very forgettable, just like Zenyatta has been.

[pweizer]

I think zenyatta and Rip Van Winkle will vie for favoritism. Based on last year, all Euros will be overbet. Zenyatta has a huge fan base in California. I am not sute the same can be said for Gio Ponte.

Paul

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think zenyatta and Rip Van Winkle will vie for favoritism. Based on last year, all Euros will be overbet. Zenyatta has a huge fan base in California. I am not sute the same can be said for Gio Ponte.

Paul

Zenayatta will take more money than 2009 HOY Summer Bird()

You know seriously he may be forgotten with Rip Van Winkle, Gio Ponti, hopefully Colonel John, Derby winners always seem to take money Mine That Bird, Richard's Kid...ect... I know he's the best horse at 1 1/4, the only question is does he have one more big race in the tank and the obvious risk of not knowing how he will fare on pro ride. Which will be a bonus to his odds if you want a positive spin of not running on dirt.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Gander

You think so? I dont think she has much of a fan base at all. It would be one thing to say this about Rachel but most people really dont even know who she is. I dont remmeber Street Sense being that popular either. To me he was very forgettable, just like Zenyatta has been.

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

dang, forgot about summer bird.....heck he goes off about the same as Zenyatta,

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I had typed out something long and similar to this but didnt post. I really dont get the whole "Zenyatta superstar" thing at all. She has only won one race that anyone outside the industry/gamblers would have watched, the distaff.

The only reason she may get the attention is because its in California, and that is where she has excelled.

She is definately not in the Smarty Jones/Rachel Alexandra/Cigar superstar category.. where you could ask your average football fan if you heard of the horse.. nobody knows who Zenyatta is.

I think based on popularity, and not just limited to Cali popularity, Summer Bird has the most "star" quality because he at least won a TC race. Some average joe's may know who he is. The reality is, outside of the TC and MAYBE the BC (not on the same level as the TC though), nobody knows or cares who is racing outside of gamblers.

I agree 100%. If Zenyatta wins the Classic, I will be very impressed as this is a much better field of horses than Rachel took down in any of her 3 wins vs males. Then she will be interesting and a huge story. For now, shes a very good, freakishly consistent horse who only runs in races in her own element.

I still think she doesnt go here and instead opts for the Ladies Classic. Why would we expect anything else from her connections, when they have already had many opportunities to try the males? Wake me up when the Ladies Classic is over.

The Classic is going to be an awesome race, but so, so much better if Zenyatta go. I hope she does.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And they are going to be VASTLY out-numbered by people who want her to win. She is the only active horse in the country that has garnered the type of attention that will get the average joe to plunk down their money.

The BC betting is very often driven by reputation and popularity. That is the reason why Street Sense was the favorite in 2007, right?

NT

2007 Derby? He was the favorite because he was the best horse in the field at that point in their careers. Not sure what your point is.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by philcski

2007 Derby? He was the favorite because he was the best horse in the field at that point in their careers. Not sure what your point is.

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

yea, they bet like 5 bucks (say you have 1000 of them)...there are people that will wager $5000 if they really liked someone in that race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

Gio Ponti stinks.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My point was that people who don't regularly follow the game but get involved on big days recognize certain horses and bet them. Zenyatta is one of them, Gio Ponti is not.

NT

Gotcha, I see what you're getting at, but I think that was a bad example because he was the best horse in the field. It isn't often the best 3 run 1-2-3 in the Derby but they did in that one.