How good is Lava Man?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.

Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.

Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.

First of all, I don't understand this supposed " west coast/east coast bias " or even " west coast/east coast horse " thing. It never really occured to me until seeing it on Internet message boards. I have even read mindless related stupidity on this topic wherein people suggest the Beyer figs have some sort of bias towards one coast ( if people only knew Beyer they would really laugh at how silly THAT is ). I don't care where they run, a good horse is a good horse, and if I felt it was a level playing field I would bet a horse from Jupiter if I thought he or she was the fastest horse in a positive situation in any given race. Bob and John? Of course he was the logical horse on paper ( OK, I bet Jazil, but the winning result was far and away my biggest exacta ). Simply put I don't identify horses by region....I do it by ability.

My problem with shippers is when I consider the connections suspicious ( which these days, for me, includes just about everybody ) then, at the very least, I need to see them achieve success out of town ( and not into known opium dens ). Lava Man's JCGC last year hardly instills any confidence. Obviously it was probably at least some sort of aberation but at the reasonably short price Lava Man will be in the Classic I am more than ready to take a stand against him.

Plus, as I also said before, his running style does not look to be advantageous for the likely race dynamics of the year's Classic. Since I consider Bernardini very much the horse to beat, and I apparently have a higher opinion of Invasor ( for better or worse ) than you do, I don't see how Lava Man fights off either or both of them and still has anything left in the tank for the remaining horses. I take stands.....and I loathe Lava Man's chances in this year's Classic AS THE RACE STANDS NOW.

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

I don't get this; care to back it up ???

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Independent George

I don't get this; care to back it up ???

If you " don't get " it then you would need it explained. If you want it backed up then you get it but just don't agree.

Which is it?

[Gander]

Fleet Rat. Indian Rat. Fleet Donkey. Indian Mule. Fleet Cheat. Indian Turtle.

Which one do you like the best Andy? You'll be grinning like a Chesire Cat when Fleet Indian stops like an old yugo. It will be a feather in your cap.

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you " don't get " it then you would need it explained. If you want it backed up then you get it but just don't agree.

Which is it?

Explain it, please.

[blackthroatedwind]

For a number of reasons I do not believe the performances of many horses at Delaware Park are a fair representation of their actual ability. One reason I believe this is I have seen MANY horses over MANY years run high speed figures at Delaware Park that they simply do not reproduce at other tracks. Another reason is that their barn area has been populated, since the implementation of slots, with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care. Yet another reason is that the State of Delaware was hardly helpful in the attempts by racing to have uniform medication rules.

[Gander]

with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care

How is Delaware any different than NY Andy?

[blackthroatedwind]

It seems like Delaware form does not get reproduced with anywhere close to the regularity of other tracks. I used to think it was the surface but now I believe it's the relaxed " atmosphere ".

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For a number of reasons I do not believe the performances of many horses at Delaware Park are a fair representation of their actual ability. One reason I believe this is I have seen MANY horses over MANY years run high speed figures at Delaware Park that they simply do not reproduce at other tracks. Another reason is that their barn area has been populated, since the implementation of slots, with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care. Yet another reason is that the State of Delaware was hardly helpful in the attempts by racing to have uniform medication rules.

I've "followed" Delaware for years, but I know I'm not privy to the backstretch goings-on as you are. I'm not sure what trainers you're referring to. Scott Lake is winning at 23% there (he's a guy who's improved horses he's claimed) and he races elsewhere with even better results. Other than Klesaris and Pletcher, the leading trainers are in the 20% realm of winners. One guy I've seen improve dramatically horses he's claimed there is Howard Wolfendale, who is almost a sure thing to win off the claim; but other than that I haven't seen any more dubious outcomes than other tracks.
Delaware was the only track that wouldn't give stall space to Michael Gill after the "year" he had at Gulfstream and the questionable goings-on involving his vet. Now whether you consider that decision right or wrong, it seems to say that Delaware was somewhat concerned with "image" and reputation.