How good is Lava Man?

Seattleallstar · #1 09-17-2006, 06:55 PM

lol how did Good Reward end up

1st_Saturday_in_May · #2 09-17-2006, 06:59 PM

Lava Man will get his ass handed to him in teh Classic IMO

Rupert Pupkin · #3 09-17-2006, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

lol how did Good Reward end up

That doesn't prove anything. Lava Man has beaten other horses that came back and won huge races in their next start. He beat Borrego by 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. Borrego came back and won his next two two races. He won the Pacific Classic and then he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 7 lengths.

Thunder Gulch · #4 09-17-2006, 07:13 PM

He's really good in Cali, but we'll know a lot more in 60 days.

DiscreetCat=Monster · #5 09-17-2006, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That doesn't prove anything. Lava Man has beaten other horses that came back and won huge races in their next start. He beat Borrego by 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. Borrego came back and won his next two two races. He won the Pacific Classic and then he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 7 lengths.

Yea wasn't lava man in the JCGC and the Pacific Classic when Borrego brought his A game, so i guess that means when he faces top quality horses on their A game he is gonna get his butt kicked

Rupert Pupkin · #6 09-17-2006, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Yea wasn't lava man in the JCGC and the Pacific Classic when Borrego brought his A game, so i guess that means when he faces top quality horses on their A game he is gonna get his butt kicked

In the Pacific Classic, LM went head and head in :45 3/5. He still only lost the race by a length or two. Do you know any horse that can go head and head in :45 3/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race and still win. I don't. In the New York race, he lost by 20 lengths. He obviously didn't fire that day. There was something bothering him.

DiscreetCat=Monster · #7 09-17-2006, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In the Pacific Classic, LM went head and head in :45 3/5. He still only lost the race by a length or two. Do you know any horse that can go head and head in :45 3/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race and still win. I don't. In the New York race, he lost by 20 lengths. He obviously didn't fire that day. There was something bothering him.

Still not gonna change my opinon. I watched Good Reward run and I just don't think he would of been within 10 lenghts of Bernadini or Invasor for that matter and their only 3yo's. California horses are weaker than ever this year and by Nov 4th Lava Man will be way past his prime to deal with all the fresh faces.

Rupert Pupkin · #8 09-17-2006, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

Still not gonna change my opinon. I watched Good Reward run and I just don't think he would of been within 10 lenghts of Bernadini or Invasor for that matter and their only 3yo's. California horses are weaker than ever this year and by Nov 4th Lava Man will be way past his prime to deal with all the fresh faces.

LM's last 2 races were not as impressive as some of his other races. He may not be as sharp right now as he has been in the past. I'm not saying that he can beat Bernardidni. I would definitely give Benardini the edge right now.

I'm not a big fan of Invasor. By the way, Invasor is a 4 year old.

sham · #9 09-17-2006, 08:02 PM

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

Rupert Pupkin · #10 09-17-2006, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sham

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

Yes, that is exactly correct.

2Hot4TV · #11 09-17-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

lol how did Good Reward end up

Here we go again. Lava Man has been very good to me at the window and I hope we have the Breeders Cup show down. LAVA MAN is one very good RACE horse. Good Reward ships across the country then runs a bad race and that makes him a second class race horse. I love you guy putting money in the pool.

DiscreetCat=Monster · #12 09-17-2006, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sham

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

I thought the thread said "How good is Lava Man" not "how good was Lava Man" I am just sayin he is gonna get his ass handed to him in the Classic. Horses eating habits change due to the weather and this is about the same time he took dump

last year.

#13 09-18-2006, 10:53 AM

Lava Man is a very talented horse. He must contend with shipping for the Breeders' Cup, but that does not mean he is not a very fine racehorse. I think he is undoubtedly the best older horse in training. He is a grandson of the great Seattle Slew; as is Bernardini. It is the year of Slew.

#14 09-18-2006, 10:57 AM

You really can't use GR's race this weekend as a basis to prove anything. GR was coming off a long ship out and back and a lifetime top on the dirt. If ever a horse looked like a bounce it was him.
I still don't think Lava has beaten anything good this year, but we will know soon enough whether he can handle leaving California.

#15 09-18-2006, 11:33 AM

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average....well, he'd probably love Keeneland, but he'll be an underlay at Churchill in the BC Classic...IMO

#16 09-18-2006, 11:37 AM

Joel I agree with you completely but just wanted to mention that using a horse like Good Reward and his subsequent effort as a basis of "proof" that Lava Man isn't any good is faulty in nature.
Good Reward ran a lifetime effort last out and when you use a lifetime effort by a 5 year old horse who then bounces(duh) in his next start you really aren't proving anything.

Seattleallstar · #17 09-18-2006, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

Joel I agree with you completely but just wanted to mention that using a horse like Good Reward and his subsequent effort as a basis of "proof" that Lava Man isn't any good is faulty in nature.
Good Reward ran a lifetime effort last out and when you use a lifetime effort by a 5 year old horse who then bounces(duh) in his next start you really aren't proving anything.

you had to find way to rain on my parade

Rupert Pupkin · #18 09-18-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

I thought the thread said "How good is Lava Man" not "how good was Lava Man" I am just sayin he is gonna get his ass handed to him in the Classic. Horses eating habits change due to the weather and this is about the same time he took dump

last year.

He and Bernardini each will have one last prep before the BC Classic. I think that Bernardini will win his race easily. I don't know about Lava Man. He is going to have to run against The Tin Man on the grass at Santa Anita. He may not win that race. But let's say that he does win the race. I would much rather bet him in the BC Classic than Bernardini. If they were equal odds, I would take Bernardini but they won't be equal odds. Bernardini will be about 3-5 and Lava Man will be about 5-1. In that situation, LM would be a much better bet than Bernardini. Bernardini will have never faced a horse like LM. He may be able to beat LM but I certainly would not take 3-5.

blackthroatedwind · #19 09-18-2006, 12:32 PM

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

Rupert Pupkin · #20 09-18-2006, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.