Summer Bird pointed for The BC

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 09-03-2009, 11:41 AM

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

CSC · #2 09-03-2009, 11:46 AM

I don't think so...

Indian Charlie · #3 09-03-2009, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't think so...

Clearly.

I think that is evident to everyone but smooth operator.

King Glorious · #4 09-03-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

Again.

CSC · #5 09-03-2009, 11:47 AM

Again I don't think so....

Travis Stone · #6 09-03-2009, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Again I don't think so....

I'll give you credit for standing by your opinion on this despite taking it from all sides.

CSC · #7 09-03-2009, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'll give you credit for standing by your opinion on this despite taking it from all sides.

Thanks Travis, however it is an easy position to take if you really believe it and I really believe in this horse at that distance and that track. I think RA has a few things to prove yet, no matter how brilliant she has been thus far. I suspect I may have to go offline Sat-Sun because of the possible love in on this board after she wins the Woodward. I won't rehash the reasons, really I am tired of saying the same things over and over again however creatively I try to deliver them. One thing I will add with the Beyer argument, the discrepancy once grand canyon like is not so large at all. 110 and 117 is not an insurmountable difference in horseracing and I don't see why any knowledgable horseracing person as we have many on this board would say he would be trounced by her so matter of factly.

jms62 · #8 09-03-2009, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rachel Alexandra will beat Summer Bird like a drum.

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

Sightseek · #9 09-03-2009, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

What horse isn't being campaigned in the best possible place to WIN?

The Indomitable DrugS · #10 09-03-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

What horse isn't being campaigned in the best possible place to WIN?

If she was truly a great horse ... and her connections had any balls ... as a prep for the Woodward... they would have entered her in both the AP Smithwick and NY Turf Writers and she'd have swept both of them while fencing perfectly.

Sightseek · #11 09-03-2009, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If she was truly a great horse ... and her connections had any balls ... as a prep for the Woodward... they would have entered her in both the AP Smithwick and NY Turf Writers and she'd have swept both of them while fencing perfectly.

Antitrust32 · #12 09-03-2009, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

What horse isn't being campaigned in the best possible place to WIN?

not just that but.... How the hell would the Preakness have been the best possible place to win?

Two weeks off a huge romp that SCREAMED BOUNCE and a trainer change! Going a pretty far distance against boys.

Some of the stuff I hear on here makes PG1985 look brilliant.

The Indomitable DrugS · #13 09-03-2009, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there.

The track was fair to all styles in the Haskell.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

Yes ... they will surely be more impressed with Zenyatta for ducking the Hollywood Gold Cup while her stablemate Life Is Sweet was entered .. so she could take on laughing stock competition of her own gender.

parsixfarms · #14 09-03-2009, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The track was fair to all styles in the Haskell.

The rail was not the place to be that day. Summer Bird pressed the pace on the worst part of the track.

The Indomitable DrugS · #15 09-03-2009, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The rail was not the place to be that day. Summer Bird pressed the pace on the worst part of the track.

The rail was probably where you wanted to be if anything.

I thought Borel was smart to get RA right on top of the rail turning for home - and finish on it.

Duke of Mischief saved ground throughout and finished just 2.5 lengths back of Summer Bird.

parsixfarms · #16 09-03-2009, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The rail was probably where you wanted to be if anything.

I thought Borel was smart to get RA right on top of the rail turning for home - and finish on it.

Duke of Mischief saved ground throughout and finished just 2.5 lengths back of Summer Bird.

After the heavy rains came, horses racing off the rail appeared to have a distinct advantage. While non-favored winners such as Jersey Town, Actin Good, Endymion and D'Wild Ride all took the overland route to victory, short-priced speedsters such as Despite the Odds, Sunday Geisha and Man of Danger did not fare well racing inside.

Where Rachel ran in the stretch was of no consequence given her superiority that day.

No-factor Papa Clem offered a mild rally outside; no-factor Duke of Mischief offered a mild rally inside. Neither probably means anything in terms of trying to assess preferred paths that day.

The Indomitable DrugS · #17 09-03-2009, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

No-factor Papa Clem offered a mild rally outside; no-factor Duke of Mischief offered a mild rally inside. Neither probably means anything in terms of trying to assess preferred paths that day.

The Haskell was race 13. The winners of races 11, 12 and 14 all raced inside.

Summer Bird and Duke of Mischief were certainly not hindered by any path bias. After the rain came much earlier in the day it appeared that the outside might have offered a little better footing .. but as the day went on and track was taken care of.. the inside was just fine at the very least.

Cannon Shell · #18 09-03-2009, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

I doubt this is true. PG1985 has a better handle on things than 90% of the voters.

Antitrust32 · #19 09-03-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

If the race is at distance and at a Track having a bias that heavily favors RA you are right. Any other Distance / Track it is a moot point becuase RA won't be there. She is being managed not to ever be put in a situation that isn't heavily tilted in her favor. This won't be lost on those voting for HOY.

Did you watch the Preakness?

brianwspencer · #20 09-03-2009, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Did you watch the Preakness?

This is classic, and worth noting as conversations like this always remind me of the big talk we had here a couple years ago about Sun King and Invasor....like "oh but he only beat Sun King by a nose!!!!!!OMGZ!!11!!" type comments.

Look, I'm no genius and no gift to racing by any stretch, but lots more people need to start learning that a "troubled" trip can occur even when a horse visually gets into no "trouble" at all. You don't need a check or a stumble or a poor start to have a troubled trip. Invasor beat Sun King by a nose when racing totally out of his element, and it was one of his more impressive career races -- just like Rachel's Preakness is IMO her best race, because she had the most brutal trip of her life and still held off the Derby winner when the race set up for him to take it so easily. Everything was in his favor that day and nothing was in hers....and she still won.

She is that good, and it's not always an "easy trip" just because a horse was pressing and has smooth sailing. Not at all, and that's the nuance in conversations like this that are lost on far too many folks -- if they can't *see* trouble, then it was an easy trip.

Handicapping 301 stuff, I know, so perhaps Drugs needs to get through 101 before we can get to that.