Summer Bird pointed for The BC

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

you just cant throw out her other wins and the margin of victory and the final times which have been spectacular except for the Preakness.. tho it was still okay.

its not even close at this point. like not at all. If voting happened today she'd get every single vote for HOY unless someone had a real crazy agenda. The only way it becomes close is if Rachel loses TWO or more races and Summer bird wins the JCGC and the BC Classic... which he will not win.

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

???

She can win by a nose and the vote is secured. It already is IMO even if she loses.


this is all a moot point as a Euro will be winning our "dirt" classic for the second year. Shoot they can send a Grade 2 type horse over an win the classic.

What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by tector

What's the matter with you--aren't consumed with jealousy, errr, hatred of Jess Jackson like all REAL posters here?

Jess Jackson is the only super rich man left with any courage these days.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

The thing is regardless of how much we want to make of this 3 yr old filly vs older males, this isn't an overwhelming bunch of horses. Unless she wins in spectacular fashion I don't see the huge significance, it's not like Goldikova winning the Arc when she beat the best field of European horses over there, she would be beating a group of horses that are no better than tier 2 horses over here. I understand the historical significance but I really don't understand the glam factor the public is making of this. So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I mean, I get what your point is, even though I vehemently disagree -- but you're definitely right here...not every race can be filled with quality foes like Dunkirk and Hold Me Back, right?

Well a win over It's a Bird who I might add will be the wiseguy choice fresh off the Wolfson 'Icon affect' or plugger Macho Again who would be hard pressed to beat 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird is certainly better than a win over Quality Road or 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird. What's wrong with Dunkirk? I remember during this years Derby many of the Beyer disciples were picking him. We know they are rarely wrong...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Well a win over It's a Bird who I might add will be the wiseguy choice fresh off the Wolfson 'Icon affect' or plugger Macho Again who would be hard pressed to beat 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird is certainly better than a win over Quality Road or 'I need the universe and stars to align' Mine That Bird. What's wrong with Dunkirk? I remember during this years Derby many of the Beyer disciples were picking him. We know they are rarely wrong...

Well I can only speak for myself in the portion of the conversation we're having together -- but Dunkirk always reeked of an overhyped NW2X horse...and has basically proven to be such...just one who is bred well enough to get 2nd in the least meaningful of the Triple Crown races.

So basically, everything is wrong with Dunkirk. He's not as good as everyone pretended he was. Bird beating him means as little as Quality Road beating him, something I pointed out ad nauseum elsewhere before the Travers. Beating Dunkirk is not a claim to fame, even if you do it in a Grade I race.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well I can only speak for myself in the portion of the conversation we're having together -- but Dunkirk always reeked of an overhyped NW2X horse...and has basically proven to be such...just one who is bred well enough to get 2nd in the least meaningful of the Triple Crown races.

So basically, everything is wrong with Dunkirk. He's not as good as everyone pretended he was. Bird beating him means as little as Quality Road beating him, something I pointed out ad nauseum elsewhere before the Travers. Beating Dunkirk is not a claim to fame, even if you do it in a Grade I race.

I agree with you for the most about Dunkirk though maybe I will give him the benefit of the doubt he has had health issues, I was also poking fun with the beyer disciple remark, it seems when greatness is discussed beyers always enter the equation, so when Summer Bird beats 2 horses that have beyered very generously in QR and Dunkirk some say he hasn't beaten anything worthwhile. Hypocrisy or not?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CSC

I agree with you for the most about Dunkirk though maybe I will give him the benefit of the doubt he has had health issues, I was also poking fun with the beyer disciple remark, it seems when greatness is discussed beyers always enter the equation, so when Summer Bird beats 2 horses that have beyered very generously in QR and Dunkirk some say he hasn't beaten anything worthwhile. Hypocrisy or not?

Not a bad dig -- just not a good one for me since I've never used Beyers to justify Rachel and have maintained that Dunkirk wasn't much (though with the caveat that you mentioned) compared to what lots thought...and that therefore Quality Road wasn't what people were saying because beating Dunkirk on a souped up racetrack didn't impress me a whole lot.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

The thing is regardless of how much we want to make of this 3 yr old filly vs older males, this isn't an overwhelming bunch of horses. Unless she wins in spectacular fashion I don't see the huge significance, it's not like Goldikova winning the Arc when she beat the best field of European horses over there, she would be beating a group of horses that are no better than tier 2 horses over here. I understand the historical significance but I really don't understand the glam factor the public is making of this. So she beats Macho or Pass The Point. Nice but awe inspiring no.

On this, we agree. Some people want to play both sides of the fence, on one hand talking about how bad this group of older horses is but then on the other side giving her extra credit for taking them on. I know I'm a broken recordon this but what should be looked at is the level of competition and not the age or sex. Facing the boys or facing older doesn't automatically mean it's a harder assignment. Say the Breeders' Cup was being run on dirt at Churchill this year. As much as we've been clamoring for Zenyatta to face males and run in the Classic, if Jackson were to put Rachel in the Distaff, wouldn't that be the bigger challenge for Zenyatta to take on and not the males in the Classic?

While this is the toughest field and deepest one she's faced, let's not go overboard and call it a tough challenge. Sure, any horse can lose any race but going in, she's by far the best horse and any loss would be considered a huge upset. Since when is it considered such a huge obstacle to overcome a field in which you are 1-2 on the morning line?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

On this, we agree. Some people want to play both sides of the fence, on one hand talking about how bad this group of older horses is but then on the other side giving her extra credit for taking them on. I know I'm a broken recordon this but what should be looked at is the level of competition and not the age or sex. Facing the boys or facing older doesn't automatically mean it's a harder assignment. Say the Breeders' Cup was being run on dirt at Churchill this year. As much as we've been clamoring for Zenyatta to face males and run in the Classic, if Jackson were to put Rachel in the Distaff, wouldn't that be the bigger challenge for Zenyatta to take on and not the males in the Classic?
While this is the toughest field and deepest one she's faced, let's not go overboard and call it a tough challenge. Sure, any horse can lose any race but going in, she's by far the best horse and any loss would be considered a huge upset. Since when is it considered such a huge obstacle to overcome a field in which you are 1-2 on the morning line?

not necessarily. if sea the stars was to come, i think zenyatta would have a hard time. also, a full field might pose problems due to her running style. rail trip might even be too much. but the classic point is most likely moot, as i don't see zenyatta going vs the males.

besides, the surface is a question for rachel. i think that's why everyone wants a matchup on dirt, since both have proven ability on the real thing.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not necessarily. if sea the stars was to come, i think zenyatta would have a hard time. also, a full field might pose problems due to her running style. rail trip might even be too much. but the classic point is most likely moot, as i don't see zenyatta going vs the males.

besides, the surface is a question for rachel. i think that's why everyone wants a matchup on dirt, since both have proven ability on the real thing.

That's not what I said. I said if the Classic were at Churchill on the dirt this year and Rachel was running, then it would be a tougher matchup for Zenyatta to run in the Distaff than in the Classic against the American older males. I was using that to point out how it's not always such a big deal facing males and sometimes staying in your own division can be tougher. People are going overboard with all this hype about Rachel facing older males but this race probably wouldn't be as tough as a Beldame with Zenyatta, Icon Project, and Seventh Street in it.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

On this, we agree. Some people want to play both sides of the fence, on one hand talking about how bad this group of older horses is but then on the other side giving her extra credit for taking them on. I know I'm a broken recordon this but what should be looked at is the level of competition and not the age or sex. Facing the boys or facing older doesn't automatically mean it's a harder assignment. Say the Breeders' Cup was being run on dirt at Churchill this year. As much as we've been clamoring for Zenyatta to face males and run in the Classic, if Jackson were to put Rachel in the Distaff, wouldn't that be the bigger challenge for Zenyatta to take on and not the males in the Classic?

While this is the toughest field and deepest one she's faced, let's not go overboard and call it a tough challenge. Sure, any horse can lose any race but going in, she's by far the best horse and any loss would be considered a huge upset. Since when is it considered such a huge obstacle to overcome a field in which you are 1-2 on the morning line?

Well stated.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If Rachel is less than overwhelming in the Woodward, Summer Bird whips the same bunch in the Gold Cup and wins the classic I think he will have a legit chance at HOY. If RA were to lose the Woodward and SB was to win out I dont think it would even be a contest.

You have the biggest hard on for this filly. She has beat the Ky Derby winner, Travers winner, Belmont winner, Ark winner, etc etc.. Add the Woodward, and put in context winning the Preakness short, switching barns coming off a huge G1 20 length score. Do you really think she wouldn't have slaughtered Summer Bird in the Travers? I really like Summer Bird and he is a very nice G1 colt but he can't get within 5 or 6 lengths of her. Rachel is getting better we haven't seen the bottom. A Woodward win secures Horse of the Year period.. If she loses the Woodward and Summer Bird wins JCGC and Classic (he won't) then SB has a claim if Rachel doesn't beat Zenyatta in the Beldame or wins Beldame and decides to crush in the Disstaff..

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

if Rachel doesn't beat Zenyatta in the Beldame or wins Beldame and decides to crush in the Disstaff..

Is she coming? Or are you speculating.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

Is she coming? Or are you speculating.

I don't have any reason to believe she will come . TVG is brilliant for talking up this whopdie doo 400K purse increase. Like the Moss's are going to be influenced by the opportunity to win 240k more. BUT good ole TVG has gotten a huge amoint of mileage out of the offer..

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I don't have any reason to believe she will come . TVG is brilliant for talking up this whopdie doo 400K purse increase. Like the Moss's are going to be influenced by the opportunity to win 240k more. BUT good ole TVG has gotten a huge amoint of mileage out of the offer..

Oh I thought you may have heard something that was not reported, I would be very surprised if Zenyatta steps out of California this year though money is never a bad motivator, so who knows..

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

You have the biggest hard on for this filly. She has beat the Ky Derby winner, Travers winner, Belmont winner, Ark winner, etc etc.. Add the Woodward, and put in context winning the Preakness short, switching barns coming off a huge G1 20 length score. Do you really think she wouldn't have slaughtered Summer Bird in the Travers? I really like Summer Bird and he is a very nice G1 colt but he can't get within 5 or 6 lengths of her. Rachel is getting better we haven't seen the bottom. A Woodward win secures Horse of the Year period.. If she loses the Woodward and Summer Bird wins JCGC and Classic (he won't) then SB has a claim if Rachel doesn't beat Zenyatta in the Beldame or wins Beldame and decides to crush in the Disstaff..

No I dont have a hard on for the filly in any way. While I admit that Jackson is not a favorite the logic of saying that a Belmont, Travers, Gold Cup and BC Classic winner isnt a horse of the year contender over a Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Woodward winner is unusual.

Switching barns has no bearing on the award and you thinking we havent seen her bottom doesnt either. While Beyers are not an end all the thought that she would have whipped a horse that just won a grade 1 easily with a 110 beyer is laughable. If you read through my scenario you would have not seen any RA running in any races after the Woodward (which absolutely wont happen if she were to lose or even win in a less than impressive manner. Lori was saying that RA had the thing wrapped up regardless. I dont think that is true.