Travers Buzz: Quality Road a yes..

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Rachel is 10 lengths faster a 10f's. He has zero chance at 9 or 10f's.. ZERO.. Tim Ice knows it and risking the horses potential reputation as a stallion by getting crushed is NOT in the flight plan..

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace(that's assuming she can beat him at Belmont if they meet) and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree. Achieving both he most likely will be a Stallian of great demand.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree.

I have no idea if RA is the greatest of all time nor will I suggest it at this time.
The point is RA is faster then Summer Bird by a lot. I have no idea if RA is better then Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Winning Colors, or whatever filly from 1941 that Pedigree Ann will enlighten us with. To me its impossible to determine which filly would beat which filly. I do know Summer Bird has zero chance against RA and more importantly so does Tim Ice.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I have no idea if RA is the greatest of all time nor will I suggest it at this time.
The point is RA is faster then Summer Bird by a lot. I have no idea if RA is better then Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Winning Colors, or whatever filly from 1941 that Pedigree Ann will enlighten us with. To me its impossible to determine which filly would beat which filly. I do know Summer Bird has zero chance against RA and more importantly so does Tim Ice.

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

Experience isnt going to make up the chasm that was between Rachel and Summer Bird in the haskell. There was no real excuse in that race for Summer Bird. She was just better and i didnt see anything that would make me think the tables could be turned...except maybe 10f instead of 9f which she hasnt run yet and even that would be a reach.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Experience isnt going to make up the chasm that was between Rachel and Summer Bird in the haskell. There was no real excuse in that race for Summer Bird. She was just better and i didnt see anything that would make me think the tables could be turned...except maybe 10f instead of 9f which she hasnt run yet and even that would be a reach.

I surely hope if they do meet, I am in the minority in my opinions. Obviously from a wagering standpoint especially.

[dalakhani]

http://drf.com/news/article/106834.html

Interesting comments from Pletcher:

Quality Road, who was beaten five lengths while finishing third in the Travers after being jostled at the start, also came out of the race fine, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Quality Road had just one 6 1/2-furlong race between winning the Florida Derby on March 28 and Saturday.

"I thought the horse was well prepared yesterday, I thought he got the mile and a quarter fine, I don t think that had anything to do with him not winning," Pletcher said. "With a different post and with a little better break he could have been a little closer."
Pletcher indicated that the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Oct. 3 or the Goodwood on Oct. 10 were the "two most likely choices" for Quality Road's next start.

[cmorioles]

The Goodwood? Comical...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

I surely hope if they do meet, I am in the minority in my opinions. Obviously from a wagering standpoint especially.

Why in the world would Tim Ice give Rachel a try unless she went in the Classic and he had no other option? He knows he can beat the colts that are around, save the better conditioned Quality Road who might be better suited for 9's? What's Ice's risk facing colts vs. facing a filly that has trounced him. You think coming in second works for the Travers/Belmont winner? Summers Bird is colt by a hard to figure hot stallion. He is a really nice looking colt that even in a depressed breeding market is destined for stud duty, why the heck would you risk that windfall? Think about this.. what would you do? Go beat Mine that Bird and Chartiman Man or come in second to Rachel?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

Her Preakness win is clearly her most impressive race. 2 week lay off, never raced against colts, comes off a monster G1 effort, Gets pressured every single step of the way, racing for a new trainer. You see Rachel did what Quality Road, a very very nice colt couldn't. Quality Road did what 99% of horses that aren't conditioned for, yielded to the many obstacles that faced him. I think that doesn't mitigate him as a potential terrific colt BUT when a filly overcomes pace, conditioning(remember Ole Hal Wiggins was never interested in ant TC races) and first time colts it suggests that she is well beyond just a super talented sort like QR. Now go forward off that race and look at the progression that she has made and you HAVE to recognize that she is just way better then Summer Bird.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Her Preakness win is clearly her most impressive race. 2 week lay off, never raced against colts, comes off a monster G1 effort, Gets pressured every single step of the way, racing for a new trainer. You see Rachel did what Quality Road, a very very nice colt couldn't. Quality Road did what 99% of horses that aren't conditioned for, yielded to the many obstacles that faced him. I think that doesn't mitigate him as a potential terrific colt BUT when a filly overcomes pace, conditioning(remember Ole Hal Wiggins was never interested in ant TC races) and first time colts it suggests that she is well beyond just a super talented sort like QR. Now go forward off that race and look at the progression that she has made and you HAVE to recognize that she is just way better then Summer Bird.

Summer Bird is a much better horse at this stage than Mine That Bird was during the Preakness and all signs point to him getting better. The gap is closing between him and RA, if one can look past that made for RA Haskell. All we need is a fair race at 1 1/4 this fall at Belmont to illustrate this point.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

Summer Bird is a much better horse at this stage than Mine That Bird was during the Preakness and all signs point to him getting better. The gap is closing between him and RA, if one can look past that made for RA Haskell. All we need is a fair race at 1 1/4 this fall at Belmont to illustrate this point.

I doubt Tim Ice is in accord with your thoughts. He is very aware what he is facing and he isn't going to risk what you think. It's a multi million dollar gamble.. Right now he is a made colt, get crushed by RA and he does nothing but F with the colts stallion value. Let it go!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I doubt Tim Ice is in accord with your thoughts. He is very aware what he is facing and he isn't going to risk what you think. It's a multi million dollar gamble.. Right now he is a made colt, get crushed by RA and he does nothing but F with the colts stallion value. Let it go!

Smart Strike was crushed by Cigar in his last race, that had little effect on his stud value as it stands today. Maybe you and I are different, I'm concerned about racing where it seems you are in breeding.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Summer Bird is a much better horse at this stage than Mine That Bird was during the Preakness and all signs point to him getting better. The gap is closing between him and RA, if one can look past that made for RA Haskell. All we need is a fair race at 1 1/4 this fall at Belmont to illustrate this point.

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

I find it funny that anyone would say the Haskell was made for RA.

The excuse about Summer Bird not racing where he likes to be is basically moot now that he used almost the EXACT same tactics in the Travers. They've obviously trained him to have more speed and it's been on display in each of his last two starts. Did he race on the worst part of the track? Potentially, but that's not enough to make up the chasm that existed between he and Rachel at the finish.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You are giving Summer Bird WAY too many excuses in the Haskell. She trounced him very fairly.. and she was just 2 ticks off the track record in SLOP. Summer Bird ran a winning race in the Haskell.. he ran as good in that race as he has in others. Rachel is just better.

I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.

If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace(that's assuming she can beat him at Belmont if they meet) and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree. Achieving both he most likely will be a Stallian of great demand.

Speaking of zero risk to reputation.. Zenyatta, a mare that will reside with her current ownership making babies forever, is supposed to be given the opportunity to prove her greatness against Rachel. I have the word of respect for Zenyatta and think she is the only horse that needs to be given an opportunity to attempt to beat Rachel.

Rumor has it that Byk has been working the phones night and day to get this match up done!!