Gotta love Saratoga/NYRA - Condition Book

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No basic logic courses in college for you, Gales?

the same 2 year olds aren't going but the same crew is --- a crew that's shown to be pretty much INEPT at winning with 2 year olds (1st time starters, whatever). That's what the data is showing.

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

[randallscott35]

I swear people would fight about if the sky were blue on here...baby races are exciting as to the original post, bring on Toga.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

Steve,

how many do you think he is going to start 50 ? He only has to put 1 or 2 over this meet and you will make $$$ with him , throw his runners out at your own peril this year , there is always a few "suprise" trainers , i think he will be one this year , will see

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Gales

Take a deep breath, you're still missing the point. If there's anyone on this forum who disregards statistics it's me. This is because statistics deal with the general case and need not apply to a specific one. HOWEVER, that's not what you're looking at here. It's not a trainer that's 0 for whatever winning with a PARTICULAR horse, you're asking someone to win with MULTIPLE horses. In other words, the GENERAL case. And, here, statistics don't lie. K might win 1 or 2 but overall he'll be right where he should be --- at the low end percentage wise. So, you might cash on one but you'll give it all back on the others.

With all due respect, why are you gambing? Give your money to charity or your woman or your kids (if you have any); put to some better use.

worst advice I had ever seen

Gales, keep betting, increase your handle, go for it!

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

What does Bill Mott winning for Zayot 2 years ago have to do with 2009? Last year he couldn't buy a race.

You have to be a lucky ass to win any 2year old race. Any trainer will tell you that.

If you are any kind of PLAYER, you don't play 1sters. These a Watch list races for god sake.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MisterB

What does Bill Mott winning for Zayot 2 years ago have to do with 2009? Last year he couldn't buy a race.

You have to be a lucky ass to win any 2year old race. Any trainer will tell you that.

If you are any kind of PLAYER, you don't play 1sters. These a Watch list races for god sake.

no question , the whole point of my response to scav was to just tell him that the barn believes they have better stock this year then in year's past. that may not be good eneough to win some races because they can't know about all the competition.

will see what happens only a few more weeks to go

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by gales0678

no question , the whole point of my response to scav was to just tell him that the barn believes they have better stock this year then in year's past. that may not be good eneough to win some races because they can't know about all the competition.

will see what happens only a few more weeks to go

My biggest problem with Kentucky trainers invading the Spa, is NYRA gives them 30 stalls to encourage them to ship here, and the larger purses warrent the move. The problem is they don't start many of the ones they ship in. Leaving NY trainers to get lesser stall space, and they are forced to ship up and down 87. Of course, this has nothing to do with the topic

I don't have the stats, and I'm talking off the cuff/or out my ars, but I don't think the Past few years have not been to good to the Churchill group. They use to be a good angle at one time, but I find it as a good bet against the last few years.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by MisterB

My biggest problem with Kentucky trainers invading the Spa, is NYRA gives them 30 stalls to encourage them to ship here, and the larger purses warrent the move. The problem is they don't start many of the ones they ship in. Leaving NY trainers to get lesser stall space, and they are forced to ship up and down 87. Of course, this has nothing to do with the topic

I don't have the stats, and I'm talking off the cuff/or out my ars, but I don't think the Past few years have not been to good to the Churchill group. They use to be a good angle at one time, but I find it as a good bet against the last few years.

i'm sure they have been , he just has better stock this year than what he has had last couple of years , does better stock translate into wins ....they may or may not , as i told scav just don't blanketly throw out all of his this year

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MisterB

My biggest problem with Kentucky trainers invading the Spa, is NYRA gives them 30 stalls to encourage them to ship here, and the larger purses warrent the move. The problem is they don't start many of the ones they ship in. Leaving NY trainers to get lesser stall space, and they are forced to ship up and down 87. Of course, this has nothing to do with the topic

I don't have the stats, and I'm talking off the cuff/or out my ars, but I don't think the Past few years have not been to good to the Churchill group. They use to be a good angle at one time, but I find it as a good bet against the last few years.

The reason that out of town trainers dont make as many starts as the NY based stables is the fact that they rarely have NYbreds that make up at least 1/3 of the cards.

[GBBob]

Looks like he has one in an early 2yr old Allowance tomorrow at AP:

ALLOWANCE

Purse $41,480. (Includes $10,980 – IOA - Illinois Registered Owner Award). For Fillies Two Years Old Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Have Never Won Two Races. Weight, 122 Lbs. Non-winners Of $24,000 Allowed 2 Lbs. $18,000 Allowed 4 Lbs. $16,800 Allowed 6 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered). Six Furlongs. (All Weather Track)
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Mindy Michelle (FL) 2/F L* J Graham 116 E Kenneally 7/2
2 2 Dorothy Y (IL) 2/F T Thornton 118 T R Young 8/1
3 3 Beautiful Lori (FL) 2/F L1* E T Baird 116 D L Miller 2/1
4 4 Maytwooseven (KY) 2/F L E Razo, Jr. 116 F Kaelin 8/1
5 5 Beautiful Bliss (KY) 2/F L D Sanchez 118 M Stidham 5/2
6 6 Solid Lunar (KY) 2/F L Q Hamilton 116 S M Asmussen 4/1

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Looks like he has one in an early 2yr old Allowance tomorrow at AP:

ALLOWANCE

Purse $41,480. (Includes $10,980 – IOA - Illinois Registered Owner Award). For Fillies Two Years Old Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Have Never Won Two Races. Weight, 122 Lbs. Non-winners Of $24,000 Allowed 2 Lbs. $18,000 Allowed 4 Lbs. $16,800 Allowed 6 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered). Six Furlongs. (All Weather Track)
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Mindy Michelle (FL) 2/F L* J Graham 116 E Kenneally 7/2
2 2 Dorothy Y (IL) 2/F T Thornton 118 T R Young 8/1
3 3 Beautiful Lori (FL) 2/F L1* E T Baird 116 D L Miller 2/1
4 4 Maytwooseven (KY) 2/F L E Razo, Jr. 116 F Kaelin 8/1
5 5 Beautiful Bliss (KY) 2/F L D Sanchez 118 M Stidham 5/2
6 6 Solid Lunar (KY) 2/F L Q Hamilton 116 S M Asmussen 4/1

aww... L Miller named a horse after me

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The reason that out of town trainers dont make as many starts as the NY based stables is the fact that they rarely have NYbreds that make up at least 1/3 of the cards.

Maybe that's my point here. Why give up good space for non starters. Next year it will Penn national. Money flow

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Maybe that's my point here. Why give up good space for non starters. Next year it will Penn national. Money flow

The quality of the fields at Saratoga is improved as compared to the regular NYRA circuit because of the outside outfits. NY breds may fill out the cards and are great for owners but a negative at a meet like Saratoga. Without the outside outfits, Saratoga would just be Belmont North. Not to mention that shipping up and down the highway doesnt seem to bother the NY trainers that stable most of their better horses in Saratoga the rest of the Spring, summer and fall and ship to run at the downstate meets.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who has the horses, but pattern prevails. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Linny

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who have the horses but pattern prevail. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

i would rather take a shot with betting a trainer that will not get overbet/be the chalk in almost every race , how many 2 yr old horses that any of the 3 guys you mentioned are going to pay $10+ dollars to win , probably very few

when the word gets around that todd or kiran or Assmussen has a runner they get bet heavily in full fields and i just let them go at those short prices and pass

[Linny]

I don't have 2008 charts in front of me but I had Kensei at a decent price last summer and when I see the charts I'll be reminded of others. After all alot of the maidens will have 3 or 4 "top juvie trainers" represented.
I like P3's and P4's so I need to find trainers with winning profiles, not guys that hit the board. I'd rather be alive to Todd or Steve in a baby race than Eddie. If the issue is MDCL at Saratoga, don't overlook the Chief. Jerkens' Smokume paid for a great evening out at the Spa a few years back after a MDCL win. Like Kelly Kip a decade earlier, Smokume became GRADED WINNER.
The key is to spot trends early and pounce. Todd, for example often starts Saratoga with guns blazing, then runs through his stock and hits a lull during weeks 3-4. Then some of his opening week stock is ready to come back. (Mind you a lull for Todd often means winning with 1 of 5 rather than 1 of 4.)

[Travis Stone]

I should have saved the $8.50 for the movie last night to stay home and follow this thread. I think the thread was more entertaining (although Public Enemies is pretty good).

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I should have saved the $8.50 for the movie last night to stay home and follow this thread. I think the thread was more entertaining (although Public Enemies is pretty good).

you do realize i'm on the payroll here

[rpncaine]

Is Wes Ward coming to the Spa with 2 year olds?