Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Why shouldn't she show up? Will a loss damage her stud career? Remember she is now owned and campaigned by Mr. Sportsman himself! Not to mention that I could sell my clubhouse seats for scalpers prices if they were to match up at the Spa.

show up and lose and would lose horse of the year

versus dont show up and its a lock to win horse of the year. It means something to JJ, he stated that repeatedly with Curlin.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

show up and lose and would lose horse of the year

versus dont show up and its a lock to win horse of the year. It means something to JJ, he stated that repeatedly with Curlin.

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

RA is america's darling, she is a media buzz, deservingly so, and she is a lock as long as she keeps beating up the 3 year olds and avoids losing to Zenyatta. The only way I see it becoming a problem is if Zenyatta wins against males, and better males then MTB.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

The smart move would be if Jackson came out today and said Rachel will run in the Haskell, Travers, and the Beldame if all goes well. That would put all the pressure on the Moss's to ship out for the Beldame. If they chose not to and Zenyatta won the BC Classic then Rachel could still win HOY. The longer Jackson waits to commit to a race that Zenyatta could ship out for the more sympathy there will be for the connections opting to stay in California. If they know right now the Beldame is the spot they could meet and they don't show up they will lost a lot of voters for HOY even if Zenyatta wins the Classic.

[randallscott35]

I know as race fans we can't seem to help these types of comparisons but I wish we could just appreciate how great they both are.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The smart move would be if Jackson came out today and said Rachel will run in the Haskell, Travers, and the Beldame if all goes well. That would put all the pressure on the Moss's to ship out for the Beldame. If they chose not to and Zenyatta won the BC Classic then Rachel could still win HOY. The longer Jackson waits to commit to a race that Zenyatta could ship out for the more sympathy there will be for the connections opting to stay in California. If they know right now the Beldame is the spot they could meet and they don't show up they will lost a lot of voters for HOY even if Zenyatta wins the Classic.

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

[tector]

Camp Zenyatta had a plan for HOY--make a token trip out-of-state again (which, no fault of theirs, had to be scratched), beat up on a bunch of tin cans in-state thereafter, and take the BC Distaff (as I still call it) on home field. If they could keep her together, it would have worked, unless some 3YO freaked.

And a 3YO has freaked. Worse, it is a filly that has now offered up three historical performances in a row, in big showcase races. And she is threatening to do more. If she were to do the Haskell or Travers, or--heaven help her-- both, it would be a ridiculous accomplishment. The sentiment for her would be overwhelming for HOY, and deservedly so. Zenyatta would have to come out and face her, BC be damned, to keep her HOY shot alive. The writers are going to reward the daring-do of RA if she pulls off a couple of more historical performances. People like that stuff. More boring stakes races on the California poly circuit you can get any weekend.

Zenyatta's only other alternative would be to start stepping out herself--but they've already said no to the Pacific Classic, opting for the Clement Hirsch. Here's a bulletin: nobody outside of California really cares about the Clement Hirsch--it is just more of the same, in year when a filly is doing things that definitely are NOT the same. Maybe going to the Goodwood might work. Certainly the BC Classic would do the trick. But unless RA falters, then Zenyatta & Co. MUST call an audible of some kind, or risk having an undefeated twice champion who couldn't make HOY.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In theory, Rachel Alexandra is supposed to move way up and improve dramatically over her next few races after making a barn change from Hal Wiggins to Steve Asmussen.

It's common sense as far as stats go ... but it's also hard to imagine she could improve that much more when you look at her 3yo form for Hal and that Oaks win in her final start.

I actually think RA was atleast as refreshing as any horse I ever remember in all my time following racing when she was with Wiggins .. and I say that because of two trends that have dominated racing recently.

#1.) The quality horses in almost every division are very low rated performance wise from a historical standpoint.

#2.) The trainer factor has become as unbearably annoying to witness as it's been profitable to follow.


The thing that was so great about RA ... is that she kept running these races that were historically outstanding performances for early season 3yo fillies going long ... and was doing it not for a trainer with too good to be true numbers ... but rather, doing it for a trainer who had comically poor numbers .. bad enough numbers to suggest he was utterly incompetent if you're foolish enough to believe that some of the other guys are taking no advantages.

When RA was with Wiggins ... she was bar none the easiest horse to root for I ever remember .. at least in my mind. I still think she's very easy to root for because you know how real she is.

John Sheriffs is one of my favorite trainers of all-time ... but he has some magic to him. I've never seen a guy better at cranking them up. He had the freakiest stats of all-time with first time starters when he trained for 505 .. and now he's like Frankel-esque post 505.

Zenyatta isn't an easy horse for me to root for at all. A one dimension closer with a perfect style for synthetic .. and a single dirt race that I feel was a little overrated.

RA is way easier to root for of the two.

As for who ran the better race on Saturday ... if Zenyatta was in that race at Belmont Park she still would have been beat by RA even though there were two speeds in there. If RA was at HP against Zenyatta Saturday ... I believe RA would have run terrible on that synthetic because virtually every Asmussen horse going further than 4.5 furlongs runs below their form on it - many way below their form.

[Gander]

Theres a matchup that may happen on Sunday at Belmont which I am looking forward to even more...Driven by Success and Fabulous Strike meet again in the Tom Fool. Last time they met it was the Carter and both ran exceptionally well but got understandingly tired enough to both lose (Kodiak Kowboy won).

I know it wont get the ink of a hypothetical Rachel vs Zenyatta, but these are 2 very talented horses and I cant wait to see them go at it.

[SniperSB23]

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...ategory=SPORTS

To make the race more alluring for Zenyatta owner Jerry Moss, the New York Racing Association might change their purse structure and increase the purse for the Go for Wand and/or Personal Ensign.

"NYRA generally does not sweeten pots or provide incentives but this could be a situation that might warrant that consideration," NYRA president and CEO Charlie Hayward said in an e-mail. "I know (Zenyatta's owner) Mr. (Jerry) Moss opened the door to coming East and we will spend this week finding out what that means."

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

To say the 2 horses that ran against Rachel Saturday are equal caliber to Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady is quite a ways out there. Rachel's the fastest 3 yr old out there, but let's keep it in perspective. She beat Mine That Bird and Musket Man by a length. At this point to say either of those two is much more than a nice horse would be a stretch. Rachel's had a much better year than Zenyatta to this point. That's about all I'll say.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

To say the 2 horses that ran against Rachel Saturday are equal caliber to Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady is quite a ways out there. Rachel's the fastest 3 yr old out there, but let's keep it in perspective. She beat Mine That Bird and Musket Man by a length. At this point to say either of those two is much more than a nice horse would be a stretch. Rachel's had a much better year than Zenyatta to this point. That's about all I'll say.

she put away all the speed in the Preakness and still beat the closers in a race that set up perfect for MTB and Musket Man. on a track that you can clearly see, especially now after she just rolled over belmont, that she didnt handle Pimlico the same as Belmont and Churchill. After her race Saturday it became obvious.

Ginger Punch was okay.. nothing too special... After watching her few wins at Saratoga is snail like fasion she was nothing more than okay... prolly no better than Musket Man/MTB.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

she put away all the speed in the Preakness and still beat the closers in a race that set up perfect for MTB and Musket Man. on a track that you can clearly see, especially now after she just rolled over belmont, that she didnt handle Pimlico the same as Belmont and Churchill. After her race Saturday it became obvious.

Ginger Punch was okay.. nothing too special... After watching her few wins at Saratoga is snail like fasion she was nothing more than okay... prolly no better than Musket Man/MTB.

I said she was the fastest 3 yr old out there. I am not really buying the she didn't like Pimlico story. I think the margin was one length because she faced a couple ok horses...not complete garbage. If she ran against Stone Legacy and Malibu Prayer in the Preakness, she wins that race by 20. Her Beyers were 108, 108, 111 those last 3 races. She handled two of those tracks but not the third one?? Makes no sense. You said Ginger Punch was no better than Flashing and Malibu Prayer and Stone Legacy...not Musket Man.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

Moss didn't say specifically that he'd do anything but he did make a comment about how they need to try different things. I really have a feeling that Shirreffs has been calling the shots and Moss has just gone along for the ride. Shirreffs still sounds uneasy about going to NY because of the detention barn.

NT