Obama love

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I just dont know what to say. If you know how it works then surely you know what Obama's people are saying about the "jobs saved" or "created" is bunk. The Wall Street Journal is a legit source.

. During a March hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, Chairman Max Baucus challenged Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the formula.

"You created a situation where you cannot be wrong," said the Montana Democrat. "If the economy loses two million jobs over the next few years, you can say yes, but it would've lost 5.5 million jobs. If we create a million jobs, you can say, well, it would have lost 2.5 million jobs. You've given yourself complete leverage where you cannot be wrong, because you can take any scenario and make yourself look correct."

I suppose you will say that Baucus is partisan and wrong on the subject too?

Yes, I'm an expert on how everyone misuses statistics. I've worked in government the past seven years under both Republican and Democrats and both want to spin the same numbers the same way. I know how silly it is and I know how silly the numbers in the Wall Street Journal were. And if you can find an Obama quote where he said we'd never get above 8% unemployment then I'll laugh my ass off at that. But really I don't think he's that dumb to say that. Anyone with a clue knows the economy may be turning now but there is always an unemployment lag after the recession ends so we will hit 11% before this is all said and done. And for anyone who understands how the unemployment statistics works they will understand that it will actually be a positive thing. That may sound weird but the unemployment rate is the percentage of people seeking a job that cannot get one related to the total labor force. So that means anyone who has given up "or discouraged workers" as they are known, will not count in the unemployment rate. So later this year the economy picks up even though we are at 10.5% unemployment all other signs are positive that we are recovering. So guess what happens? All those discouraged workers suddenly start looking for jobs again, now instead of counting as out of the labor force they count as unemployed. So we wind up with the unemployment rate jumping even though the economy is recovering. It is the way it works and is why I'd be shocked if Obama was on record saying the unemployment rate would never get above 8%.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Yes, I'm an expert on how everyone misuses statistics. I've worked in government the past seven years under both Republican and Democrats and both want to spin the same numbers the same way. I know how silly it is and I know how silly the numbers in the Wall Street Journal were. And if you can find an Obama quote where he said we'd never get above 8% unemployment then I'll laugh my ass off at that. But really I don't think he's that dumb to say that. Anyone with a clue knows the economy may be turning now but there is always an unemployment lag after the recession ends so we will hit 11% before this is all said and done. And for anyone who understands how the unemployment statistics works they will understand that it will actually be a positive thing. That may sound weird but the unemployment rate is the percentage of people seeking a job that cannot get one related to the total labor force. So that means anyone who has given up "or discouraged workers" as they are known, will not count in the unemployment rate. So later this year the economy picks up even though we are at 10.5% unemployment all other signs are positive that we are recovering. So guess what happens? All those discouraged workers suddenly start looking for jobs again, now instead of counting as out of the labor force they count as unemployed. So we wind up with the unemployment rate jumping even though the economy is recovering. It is the way it works and is why I'd be shocked if Obama was on record saying the unemployment rate would never get above 8%.

At the beginning of January there were 134,300,000 people employed in the US
At the beginning of May there were 132,400,000 people employed in the US

How is this good?

And how exactly do they measure the amount of "discouraged" workers?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

At the beginning of January there were 134,300,000 people employed in the US
At the beginning of May there were 132,400,000 people employed in the US

How is this good?

And how exactly do they measure the amount of "discouraged" workers?

It's not good! No one is saying that. Although if you seasonally adjust the data it isn't as bad as it looks. No one doubts we are in a recession, the question is when we are getting out of it. And the unemployment rate is the worst gauge of it cause of how it is calculated. And is exactly why I think you are making up that Obama ever said it wouldn't get over 8%.

As crazy as it sounds the national unemployment rate is 100% based on the monthly Current Population Survey where people answer questions and are designated as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. Further questions distinguish between your reason for not being in the labor force which includes the discouraged worker category.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It's not good! No one is saying that. Although if you seasonally adjust the data it isn't as bad as it looks. No one doubts we are in a recession, the question is when we are getting out of it. And the unemployment rate is the worst gauge of it cause of how it is calculated. And is exactly why I think you are making up that Obama ever said it wouldn't get over 8%.

The unemployment rate is close to 10%. It is bad anyway you cut it. Who said we are getting out of the recession anytime soon?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And the unemployment rate is the worst gauge of it cause of how it is calculated. And is exactly why I think you are making up that Obama ever said it wouldn't get over 8%.

ok

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

ok

And Obama never said it. Had you said members of Obama's economic team said it wouldn't get above 8% you would have at least been half right. If you wanted to make your point and be accurate (rarely a consideration on here) you would have said "the Obama team said if the stimulus bill wasn't passed the rate would go above 8% yet look where we are now with the stimulus bill having passed". That would be a valid statement and would have made your point.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And Obama never said it. Had you said members of Obama's economic team said it wouldn't get above 8% you would have at least been half right. If you wanted to make your point and be accurate (rarely a consideration on here) you would have said "the Obama team said if the stimulus bill wasn't passed the rate would go above 8% yet look where we are now with the stimulus bill having passed". That would be a valid statement and would have made your point.

scott... this is way too silly... So now if the "White House" or "Obama team" says something, its not actually Obama's belief? Obama is now not even responsible for the actions of HIS White House??


Yet every single little thing... even if it was implemented by a Demcrat controlled congress.. was Bush's fault, right?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

scott... this is way too silly... So now if the "White House" or "Obama team" says something, its not actually Obama's belief? Obama is now not even responsible for the actions of HIS White House??


Yet every single little thing... even if it was implemented by a Demcrat controlled congress.. was Bush's fault, right?

Where do you see me on here saying everything was Bush's fault and Congress is doing nothing wrong? Obama wasn't even in the White House when Bernstein made the comment.

All I was asking for was a source, cause way too often on here people are misquoted and the quotes are misattributed without a source to back them up.

I think the unemployment rate is higher than given.
Either that, or way too many people are posting on DT from work.

Get on the job people.
America and productivity dont ya know...
Crunch those numbers or whatever damnit!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

And Obama never said it. Had you said members of Obama's economic team said it wouldn't get above 8% you would have at least been half right. If you wanted to make your point and be accurate (rarely a consideration on here) you would have said "the Obama team said if the stimulus bill wasn't passed the rate would go above 8% yet look where we are now with the stimulus bill having passed". That would be a valid statement and would have made your point.

Did you miss the "and company" part? They have already publicly acknowledged the mistake therefore the assumption was that what I said was 100% correct and accurate. Just because you didnt know what they promised and accused me of making it up doesnt make you a bad guy...

http://mainlyfubar.blogspot.com/2009...ama-model.html