forget Summer Bird for a minute. Who Was Better Dunkirk or Mine That Bird?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think this type of looking at the pace by "where they finished" is tricky in a race like this.

I'm not saying it is definitely wrong to do (and you can see I didn't include quote some of the other supporting strong arguments about how the track was playing.)

the problem I have is that one way of looking at the race is that most of the best horses were up front. Them being successful is still very possible whether they all went too fast or not.-The only really good horse far enough off the pace was Mine That Bird, and he had a problem with moving too early.

Dunkirk's fractions(after we adjust for how fast the track was) were borderline between too fast and fine. That is what makes it difficult to call. If they had been a lot faster it would be obvious and the horses up front would really be paying a price late.

You have raised a very valid point. As a last resort, we can always look to what Johnny V had to say after the race. He may not have known the fractions, but he probably had a good idea about how Dunkirk was moving early. This is what JV said: "I couldn't believe he was on the lead early. There was no pace."

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

...we can always look to what Johnny V had to say after the race. He may not have known the fractions, but he probably had a good idea about how Dunkirk was moving early. This is what JV said: "I couldn't believe he was on the lead early. There was no pace."

What can we make of these comments?

Unless there was an airport style "moving walkway" under the track it isn't really possible for a paceless race to go 23.41 for the first quarter of a 12 furlong race. I don't know what JV could have possibly been expecting for a 12 furlong race with the 2 fastest runners on form being Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Both of those runners have only route speed - they aren't sprinters...

Was JV that clueless to reality? Was he making excuses for breaking a stretch runner too keenly in a 12 furlong race with little expected pace? Was he intimidated with having an inside post and felt that he had to use some horse from the gate to avoid feeling the squeeze early??
Who knows.

Velazquez is pretty much a negative in any situation now except for dominant outside speed.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

What can we make of these comments?

Unless there was an airport style "moving walkway" under the track it isn't really possible for a paceless race to go 23.41 for the first quarter of a 12 furlong race. I don't know what JV could have possibly been expecting for a 12 furlong race with the 2 fastest runners on form being Charitable Man and Miner's Escape. Both of those runners have only route speed - they aren't sprinters...

Was JV that clueless to reality? Was he making excuses for breaking a stretch runner too keenly in a 12 furlong race with little expected pace? Was he intimidated with having an inside post and felt that he had to use some horse from the gate to avoid feeling the squeeze early??
Who knows.

Velazquez is pretty much a negative in any situation now except for dominant outside speed.

Uhm, perhaps the track was insanely fast? While I tend to think jockeys are retards and often make things up as they speak, that's both CB and JRV who said the pace was very slow.

Also, watching the race, Dunkirk did not look like a horse that was going 47.

[CSC]

Dunkirk had the best trip in the Belmont, followed by MTB and then SB. I know what has been said and written about it, but that's the way I saw it.

Of the top 3 finishers that is.

[Thunder Gulch]

Dunkirk set a fast pace and beat MTB to the wire, even after MTB rushed up on him off the turn....easily Dunkirk.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Dunkirk had the best trip in the Belmont, followed by MTB and then SB. I know what has been said and written about it, but that's the way I saw it.

Of the top 3 finishers that is.

Fat Man is really going to scold u for that one

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Fat Man is really going to scold u for that one

If he really is the Fatman, I would be more scared if he sat on me.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Dunkirk had the best trip in the Belmont, followed by MTB and then SB. I know what has been said and written about it, but that's the way I saw it.

Of the top 3 finishers that is.

Do you really think that? Summer Bird, while he inconsequentially steadied a couple of times on the backstretch, received an outstanding ride and had a perfect trip.

Look at Fat Man's chart and you can see what the winning move was vis-a-vis the earlier moves that were made. Looking at it from a race flow perspective, which is a crucial part of trip handicapping, it is quite clear that this race was set up for Summer Bird. All he had to be able to do was finish and considering how much ground he had saved while galloping on the rail, he was packing quite a wallop in the stretch.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Do you really think that? Summer Bird, while he inconsequentially steadied a couple of times on the backstretch, received an outstanding ride and had a perfect trip.

Look at Fat Man's chart and you can see what the winning move was vis-a-vis the earlier moves that were made. Looking at it from a race flow perspective, which is a crucial part of trip handicapping, it is quite clear that this race was set up for Summer Bird. All he had to be able to do was finish and considering how much ground he had saved while galloping on the rail, he was packing quite a wallop in the stretch.

NT

I watched the race 3 times last night each from the perspective of being on MTB, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird to be as objective as possible I don't know if anyone here has taken the time to be that objective. Honestly if we all get past this trip stuff of who got the best trip and especially the slightly premature move by Borel, the difference in the rides is very miniscule. Raw numbers aside, Dunkirk was comfortable riding the golden rail as the speed, MTB was not rushed up but floated up by Borel, Durkin's call is hyperbole..mad rush my ash...it was only that when he got side by side with the leaders he asked him, the majority of the time a horse making that move at Belmont the horse wins. Summer Bird had a good trip, despite the obvious steady/checks down the backside, he could have been closer but he did make up alot of ground on the worst part of the track. Other than that, all the rides had good aspects to them and all them had some negative aspects to them. The best horse won, I think most educated horseplayers will agree the result was a true one whether MTB waited a little longer before he made his move or not.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

I watched the race 3 times last night each from the perspective of being on MTB, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird to be as objective as possible I don't know if anyone here has taken the time to be that objective. Honestly if we all get past this trip stuff of who got the best trip and especially the slightly premature move by Borel, the difference in the rides is very miniscule. Raw numbers aside, Dunkirk was comfortable riding the golden rail as the speed, MTB was not rushed up but floated up by Borel, Durkin's call is hyperbole..mad rush my ash...it was only that when he got side by side with the leaders he asked him, 9/10 a horse making that move wins at Belmont. Summer Bird had a good trip, despite the obvious steady/checks down the backside, he could have been closer but he did make up alot of ground on the worst part of the track. Other than that, all the rides had good aspects to them and all them had some negative aspects to them also. The best horse won, I think most educated horseplayers will agree the result was a true one whether MTB waited a little longer before he made his move.

The thing is, we're discussing the trips and the rides go hand-in-hand. We can't discuss the trips if we take out or marginalize the premature move of Borel, you can't rationally analyze the trip.

I also don't really buy into the argument about how Summer Bird made up ground on the worst part of the track. The race that really screamed bias on Saturday was the Acorn but that result, in my opinion, had more to do with GGG getting a clear lead in a race that lacked any good horses. The favorite was a perfect trip winner in each of her graded stakes efforts and was returning from an unnecessarily long and injury-induced layoff.

To sum it up, do I think the best horse at 12 furlongs, a distance beyond the scope of the 2-3 finishers, won the race? Yes.

NT