Believable ROI and Win %

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Excellent ROI for your exacta boxes. (I'm assuming you're counting the box as 2 bets.)

Your lowish ROI for win bets, given your fine hit rate, is probably due to being constrained to provide a daily best bet opinion at this particular venue. I have no doubt that if you were providing a daily best bet (or bets) covering a number of tracks, allowing you to better pick your spots, your ROI would probably be around $2.40 or so. I haven't played PID much at all, as I'd said I would. I get the sense, however, that it's every bit as difficult, if not more so given the quality of horses, than WO. And, GG, HOL, SA, and TP, are ****in snacks compared to WO.

The quality of horses has been dreadful there this year. Some horse in the 1st today was 12-1 ML, was 100-1 in his first two starts, showed nothing, and opened at 4/5. Closed at 7/2 and won after looking hopelessly beaten on the turn.

What's hilarious to me is Doug's ROI, writing for the Erie Times-News, is so much better than the biggest racing coverage newspaper in the country's daily 5 handicappers (who all average worse than the takeout on their BEST meets, and play into an infinitely larger pool.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

What's hilarious to me is Doug's ROI, writing for the Erie Times-News, is so much better than the biggest racing coverage newspaper in the country's daily 5 handicappers (who all average worse than the takeout on their BEST meets, and play into an infinitely larger pool.)

Well, I'm a better handicapper than those guys. I think even those guys would agree if they got to know me.

But there have been some conditions at this meet so far that have been highly favorable to me.

In Week #2, 18 of the 32 races were won in wire-to-wire fashion. In week #3, 20 of the 32 races were won by either post 1 or post 2 .. and a good deal of the 12 horses who didn't win while starting from down inside got to the gold rail.

So, you've had a real constant bias in play.. and it wasn't until the very end of 3rd week that the riders started to pick up on it and ride more aggressively.

That's been a bigtime help.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well, I'm a better handicapper than those guys. I think even those guys would agree if they got to know me.

But there have been some conditions at this meet so far that have been highly favorable to me.

In Week #2, 18 of the 32 races were won in wire-to-wire fashion. In week #3, 20 of the 32 races were won by either post 1 or post 2 .. and a good deal of the 12 horses who didn't win while starting from down inside got to the gold rail.

So, you've had a real constant bias in play.. and it wasn't until the very end of 3rd week that the riders started to pick up on it and ride more aggressively.

That's been a bigtime help.

I have no doubt you are a better handicapper than them. You actually take time in your selections instead of automatically deferring to the ML favorite. Analyzing biases and trends are a significant part of handicapping, regardless of whether that's been beneficial to your ROI in the current short run. My point was more that your opinion has to be even more right because of the size of the pools- a $1000 bet actually changes the odds at PID.

Did you see the 1st race today that I was referring to?