6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

Originally Posted by peetsa

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar