6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al..

[gales0678]

no he's the one and only

still has the suite at the beverly hills hotel , so if you're ever out there just drop by and say hello , i'm sure he will buy you a drink

[Bobby Fischer]

this sucks,
the government just bought out Zambezi Sun for $12 billion

[miraja2]

Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

Really? An underlay at 50-1?
You are obviously right about him not fitting in terms of speed figures with even his lifetime best being well short of the big three in this race (and even the stupid Lukas colt), but that is why he might be in the 20/1 - 25/1 range. He isn't one of the more likely winners, but if you aren't a big believer in most of the other colts in this race - and I'm not - I think you could do worse than having a decent Mineshaft/Broad Brush sitting in first or second after 9f at something like 20/1. The others are likely going to need to go by him at some point, and while Dunkirk and Mine that Bird are probably good enough to do just that, I wouldn't be shocked to see him hang on for at least a share. But then again, I liked that Pletcher horse as a longshot in the Preakness, and I think he just finished that race about 5 minutes ago....so what do I know?

I also kind of like Summer Bird. All in all I think it is a pretty interesting race to ponder.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

I see this race a bit differntly than most on here. I see Charitable Man being the clear speed and I am not talking about him just having "lope along" speed in a race without any. Hes got real speed and I expect him to be the clear early leader. Just hoping at least 1-2 others keep this pace honest.

As far as Miners Escape, I dont see him as a board factor. I think he'll get used up in trying to chase Charitable Man.

Da Tara was a shocker last year and I would have said before the race, no way he can win. But looking back, there was really 1 horse to beat (Big Brown) and he had quite the "off day!" For Miners Escape to win, wouldnt 3 horses have to have "off days?"

And going into last year's Belmont, didnt Big Brown appear as "lone speed?"
I played Da Tara on Preakness Day, damn I wish I played him back!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

Originally Posted by peetsa

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar

[peetsa]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

You could do a lot worse, and I think he'll be at least 25/1. There's no speed in this race. I wanted to bet against Charitable Man, but who has any speed other than those two?

[blackthroatedwind]

Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.

Ugh

[hockey2315]

The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

This One's for Phil is an interesting horse, in my opinion he is a must include in the pick 3-4.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

I dont think there is any chance Benny takes more money than Fabulous Strike.

Yes, the ML on Hull was strangely low. Isnt he the poly horse? I like Phil in this spot too. Thinking 5/2 on Phil.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont think there is any chance Benny takes more money than Fabulous Strike.

Yes, the ML on Hull was strangely low. Isnt he the poly horse? I like Phil in this spot too. Thinking 5/2 on Phil.

Poly horse? Hull won the Derby Trial.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont think there is any chance Benny takes more money than Fabulous Strike.

Yes, the ML on Hull was strangely low. Isnt he the poly horse? I like Phil in this spot too. Thinking 5/2 on Phil.

Hull won the Derby Trial at Churchill on dirt. He did win an allowance on Poly but his maiden win was at FG.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.

is dixie not bobby's right hand man?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by gales0678

is dixie not bobby's right hand man?

Do you also believe in elves and fairies?