Best 3 yr old in the country

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TFM,

The decision was made well before the race that Mine That Bird was going to be taken back and come with one run. As soon as they saw that they could get into the Derby with their earnings, Woolley sought out Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, and told him what they were looking to do and that they wanted Borel specifically. While the break exacerbated the 'take back/one run' scenario, it wasn't happenstance that the gelding was coming from well off the pace in the Derby.

If that is the case, why did the owner 'downed my head in disgust when they went by the frontstretch for the first time'??? I think I remember Fu-Man-Chu saying he was expecting Borel to have him a few lengths off the pace but was surprised to see him drop completely out of it early.

Correct me if I am wrong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If that is the case, why did the owner 'downed my head in disgust when they went by the frontstretch for the first time'??? I think I remember Fu-Man-Chu saying he was expecting Borel to have him a few lengths off the pace nut was surprised to see him drop completely out of it early.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Come on, man, after the race they definitely planned to take him back to last all along. Kind of like when you want to bet the 4, mispunch and bet the 5, and win. You know you wanted the 5 all along.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If that is the case, why did the owner 'downed my head in disgust when they went by the frontstretch for the first time'??? I think I remember Fu-Man-Chu saying he was expecting Borel to have him a few lengths off the pace but was surprised to see him drop completely out of it early.

Correct me if I am wrong.

you are correct , he never expected him to be that far back in the derby that is what he said on NBC after the race, being last is one thing , being where he was , that was not a plan , unless you subscribe to the fact (which i have seen on another board) that they knew they had the "goods" to win and the sunland races were just used to give the horse some works for the derby , no one here knows how this horse trained coming into the derby , he may have been rating him the entire time in the am works out at sunland or wherever and knew the horse could fly from off a quick pace - he has just run 2 beyers over 105 from low 80's in sunland , surely these connections were doing something wrong at sunland or they weren't trying in the sunland races there is no other explanation

fact remains this horse just ran two very fast races and nothing in his form suggested before ky that he could do any of this

[gales0678]

i would also add that MTB at this point is not a "fluke" - before RA was going to go to the preakness i said why not MTB , he can pair up and win again against this crop - yet the skeptics here claimed is was an abnormality

nbc also said on sat that he ran the fastest last qtr in the derby since Secretariat so this horse has to be a tremendous animal no matter what the beyers or rags say

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Fast forward to 1:10 into the interview...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqvPm3WWYg8


The trainer said he wanted him back at the front of the second flight of horses.

Sounded more like he wanted him about 11th or 12th early.

I assume Borel just wanted to take him back far enough to where he knew he'd have the rail the whole race.

He remains the only jockey in history who i've ever seen get to the rail in less than a 1/16th of a mile while starting from post position 16. He achieved that with Denis Of Cork in last year's Derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Fast forward to 1:10 into the interview...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqvPm3WWYg8


The trainer said he wanted him back at the front of the second flight of horses.

Sounded more like he wanted him about 11th or 12th early.

I assume Borel just wanted to take him back far enough to where he knew he'd have the rail the whole race.

He remains the only jockey in history who i've ever seen get to the rail in less than a 1/16th of a mile while starting from post position 16. He achieved that with Denis Of Cork in last year's Derby.

i knew they said he would be back early, but not that far back-borel said the break made him take so far back early. it worked...funny how racing luck finally showed this guy wooley what the horse needed to do in a race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He remains the only jockey in history who i've ever seen get to the rail in less than a 1/16th of a mile while starting from post position 16. He achieved that with Denis Of Cork in last year's Derby.

To the detriment of the horse.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i would also add that MTB at this point is not a "fluke" - before RA was going to go to the preakness i said why not MTB , he can pair up and win again against this crop - yet the skeptics here claimed is was an abnormality

nbc also said on sat that he ran the fastest last qtr in the derby since Secretariat so this horse has to be a tremendous animal no matter what the beyers or rags say

yes I will go on the record giving by giving you props for keeping with MTB (although the 400 posts on it were enough to get your point across )when EVERYONE said he was a one and done.

I hope you cashed out on your opinion also.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

yes I will go on the record giving by giving you props for keeping with MTB (although the 400 posts on it were enough to get your point across )when EVERYONE said he was a one and done.

I hope you cashed out on your opinion also.

lori - the 1 thing i learned is if you missed the wedding , don't go to the funeral

i went shopping for a price in baltimore with musket man , if the filly didn't fire i would have had a nice day

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by gales0678

lori - the 1 thing i learned is if you missed the wedding , don't go to the funeral

i went shopping for a price in baltimore with musket man , if the filly didn't fire i would have had a nice day

musket man was great value IMO... I was a little upset that I wasnt at the OTB when the odds were being shown.... well exotic value because I really thought Rachel was going to win.

That was an easily playable trifecta IMO and it paid decent.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you wanted credit for an opinion, yet you didn't believe enough in the opinion to bet on it? How does that work?

i used MM on top and bottom in ex's with a number of other horses - i was hoping the filly didn't fire or got in a speed duel

Jay if i bet MTB to win my opininon would still have been wrong anyway as i wouldn't have cashed either

what i talked to lori about in our late night conversations was more of the fact that the horse was getting no respect and if he paired up he could win or be right there , certainly i was not one of the poeple on here or on the other racing board i frequent who thought he was a one hit wonder

tell me sir how i should have bet to validate my opinion? the MM/MTB exacta either way was a much much better payoff then just a MTB win bet no?

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i used MM on top and bottom in ex's with a number of other horses - i was hoping the filly didn't fire or got in a speed duel

Jay if i bet MTB to win my opininon would still have been wrong anyway as i wouldn't have cashed either

what i talked to lori about in our late night conversations was more of the fact that the horse was getting no respect and if he paired up he could win or be right there , certainly i was not one of the poeple on here or on the other racing board i frequent who thought he was a one hit wonder

tell me sir how i should have bet to validate my opinion? the MM/MTB exacta either way was a much much better payoff then just a MTB win bet no?

Mine That Bird was a one hit wonder, that is until he validated his Derby Race last week. You either went with him in the Preakness on the premise that he was improving, and the Derby was for real, or you against him wanting him to prove to you that the Derby wasn't a fluke based off the trip, ride, and wet track. So technically until we saw a race that didn't setup perfectly for Mine That Bird, yes he was a one hit wonder. That happened in the Preakness, and he still ran a very good race, so now, he sheds the one hit wonder label. I wasn't going to bet him on Saturday because I wanted him to prove to me that the Derby wasn't a fluke that was based solely on circumstance. He proved me wrong, and that's fine. I was wrong and I can live with that.

[gales0678]

[quote=DaHoss9698]You know what I'm saying. In this game we get paid for our correct opinions. You were right, MTB ran well right back. But, you still didn't cash, which is the point of all of this right? We don't get paid for internet opinions do we?[/QUOTE]


1)that is correct , everything else is just noise

2)yes and no - cashing would have been nice and from a gambler's perspective is the bottom line , my conversations with lori were more directed from a fan perspective of how the horse was getting "dissed" and i thiught he would run back and pair up

3)no we don't

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

yes I will go on the record giving by giving you props for keeping with MTB (although the 400 posts on it were enough to get your point across )when EVERYONE said he was a one and done.

I hope you cashed out on your opinion also.

Everyone? I never said he was a one hit wonder, infact I made a case his win was legitmate even if he didn't get the now over emphasized rail run.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Everyone? I never said he was a one hit wonder, infact I made a case his win was legitmate even if he didn't get the now over emphasized rail run.

ok, 99%... not everyone

actually I'll go down to 97% and give people the benefit of the doubt.


Personally... I wasnt going to write him off until I saw some more races so I was neither right or wrong!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

ok, 99%... not everyone

actually I'll go down to 97% and give people the benefit of the doubt.


Personally... I wasnt going to write him off until I saw some more races so I was neither right or wrong!

Just to be completely accurate right after the race I may have joked he might not win another race, but late Saturday night it started sinking in when you truly analyze his performance.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by gales0678

you are correct , he never expected him to be that far back in the derby that is what he said on NBC after the race, being last is one thing , being where he was , that was not a plan , unless you subscribe to the fact (which i have seen on another board) that they knew they had the "goods" to win and the sunland races were just used to give the horse some works for the derby , no one here knows how this horse trained coming into the derby , he may have been rating him the entire time in the am works out at sunland or wherever and knew the horse could fly from off a quick pace - he has just run 2 beyers over 105 from low 80's in sunland , surely these connections were doing something wrong at sunland or they weren't trying in the sunland races there is no other explanation

fact remains this horse just ran two very fast races and nothing in his form suggested before ky that he could do any of this

The Brokeback Mountain guys never knew what they had...Wooley was 1-32 coming into the derby. It would be like Calzone Sciacca winning the BC Classic.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

The Brokeback Mountain guys never knew what they had...Wooley was 1-32 coming into the derby. It would be like Calzone Sciacca winning the BC Classic.

surely they must have known something , they were with the horse in the am's and he must have shown them something - i find it hard to believe they didn't have any inkling that the horse could run , did they know he was this good maybe not , but , they must have know he could run

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by gales0678

surely they must have known something , they were with the horse in the am's and he must have shown them something - i find it hard to believe they didn't have any inkling that the horse could run , did they know he was this good maybe not , but , they must have know he could run

i think they thought 'what the hell, he can enter-let's do it'.