134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think Big Drama is the 2nd most likeliest winner of the race, despite the somewhat questionable pedigree. I think the figure from Fl Derby day was legit- and even if he goes backwards a bit off that, he's still right in the mix. At anything higher than 6-1 he's worth a bet, and I think that'll be available.

Musket Man should have finished 2nd in the Derby and he has an even more questionable pedigree for the distance.

Your odds on Big Drama are very close to my own early line. I have him at 5-1.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Your odds on Big Drama are very close to my own early line. I have him at 5-1.

--Dunbar

I think Big Drama (the most likely winner) is more like 7/2 on Saturday and the 2nd choice behind Rachael. Very close (at least in odds) to Big Drama will be Pioneer of a Nile at around 5/1.

[slotdirt]

I just can't believe that many people are going to be on Big Drama for this one. I think 6/1 seems much more logical, and would suspect Pioneer of the Nile, the filly, and maybe even the Derby winner will go off at lower odds than the Montbrook colt.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I just can't believe that many people are going to be on Big Drama for this one. I think 6/1 seems much more logical, and would suspect Pioneer of the Nile, the filly, and maybe even the Derby winner will go off at lower odds than the Montbrook colt.

He's the most accomplished fresh face and I don't think too many people were fond of the also rans in the Derby.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I just can't believe that many people are going to be on Big Drama for this one. I think 6/1 seems much more logical, and would suspect Pioneer of the Nile, the filly, and maybe even the Derby winner will go off at lower odds than the Montbrook colt.

I agree... RA will be 1st choice, Mine that bird second for some strange reason, Pioneer will be third... and I could see Papa Clem & or Musket Man & or General Quarters (just cause people remember him from the Derby) before Big Drama.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

[Bobby Fischer]

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Mine that bird second for some strange reason

If it was any race but the Preakness he would be higher... it's simply the Derby winner / public money etc.

[philcski]

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Gander

Wow, I'd like 9/1 on Big Drama and hope you are right and I am wrong about what his price will be.

Remember Bernardini was 13-1 in this race. I'd expect Big Drama to be 8-1 or 10-1.

Bernardini was 13/1 because of Barbaro being in the race, but you are right, Bernardini and Big Drama had pretty similar resumes heading into the Preakness. Key difference is Barbaro won the Derby that year and Mine that Bird won it this year.

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Yes but isnt Rachel Alexandra this years Barbaro?

I don't think she's quite that powerful in terms of odds impact, but she'll definitely stirr it up.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

2-1 is my odds cutoff for using Rachel. Less than that, I'll try to beat her, but anything higher and she gets my money. I doubt MTB will take quite that much money. I'd say POTN will be closer to 4-1 and MTB will be closer to 7-1. Never underestimate the Baffert Buzz Factor™.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I'm bettin' the horse with front bandages

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Is philcski.com offering 9-1 on Big Drama?

philcski.com is bidding 9-1 on Big Drama.
He's offering it at 6-1.

Keep in mind, new shooters in the Preakness are habitually underbet relative to their actual abilities. Bernardini was 13-1. Macho Again last year, despite the fact that the Derby horses had proven they had next to zero chance of beating Big Brown, was an absurd 45-1. Scrappy T, off a sparkling Withers win, was 25-1.

My odds are "true line" odds- i.e., with a 16% takeout, so unless I'm very wrong on Rachel, MTB, and POTN, the rest of the horses can only go so low.

[ninetoone]

I can't see FF being 10-1...I'd expect him to be favored over MTB actually....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Phil's Expected Odds:
Rachel Alexandra 2-1
Mine That Bird 4-1
Pioneerof The Nile 7-1
Big Drama 9-1
Papa Clem 10-1
Musket Man 10-1
Fresian Fire 10-1
General Quarters 20-1
Take the Points 30-1
Terrain 30-1
Flying Private 50-1
Luv Gov 50-1
Tone it Down 50-1

I think we'll see something close to Phil's 9-1 on Big Drama. Bodog has been offering 20-1 all day, SportsInteraction is offering 18-1. When TheGreek put its odds up tonight, it offered 10.15-1, same as for Mine That Bird and Musket Man.

Here's my fair odds line, assuming a dry track:

PP# Horse My line
1 Big Drama 5
2 Mine That Bird 12
3 Musket Man 12
4 Luv Gov 100
5 Friesen Fire 15
6 Terrain 50
7 Papa Clem 10
8 General Quarters 30
9 Pioneerof the Nile 15
10 Flying Private 70
11 Take the Points 40
12 Tone It Down 200
13 Rachel Alexandra 9-5


--Dunbar

[slotdirt]

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

Big Drama is a big player in this race, I have this premonition of last year's Belmont with how Big Brown ran, Rachel Alexandra will be rating off of Big Drama early on and at some point the question will be popped as they say in oversees if BD fights her off or puts up a good fight I can see her getting discouraged or used and this could set it up for someone else or even Big Drama lasting for awhile. For some reason I either see her winning easily or running poorly, it's a feeling.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Do folks like Big Drama even with the inside post? Also, not that it really matters, but it's supposed to rain on and off in this area straight through Saturday. 80 and t-storms expected.

Isnt the rail a huge plus for a horse whos obvious intent is to be on the lead?
Personally I couldnt think of a better horse who has this type of strategy.
As far as the wet goes, I think that would only enhance Big Drama's chances on Saturday.

Like CSC said about Rachael "either winning big or running poorly," I feel the exact same way about Big Drama. Not a horse I would want to key for 2nd or 3rd, only in the win slot.